What the GLD ETF Chart Tells Us About Gold

Source: David Banister, The Market Trend Forecast (7/12/12)

"What gold needs to do, in terms of the GLD ETF, is clear the 158 hurdle on a closing basis to set the stage for a new advance."

Gold had remained in a rough $1,550–1,640/oz range for several weeks now. Tonight, we look at the GLD ETF, which represents the gold spot price movements. Over the past five months we can see in the chart below the clear downtrend lines.

Recently, in the past six weeks we have seen a series of three higher lows including today where a lower gap filled in and then gold reversed upwards.

What gold needs to do, in terms of this GLD ETF, is clear the 158 hurdle on a closing basis to set up a stage for a new advance. I would expect in the intervening months to October for gold to continuing meandering and correcting to as low as $1,445–1,455/oz, my longstanding gold worst case low targets I've had since last September.

Near term key levels are 150 on the downside and 158 on the upside. If we close below 150 on GLD ETF then we should be looking for my 1445-1455 areas to be hit this summer before a low. If we clear 158 on the GLD ETF, then the triple bottom at 1520 is likely confirmed and we can start tracking some upside for gold.

David Banister
Market Trend Forecast

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