In a May 5 research note, analyst John Freeman reported that Raymond James increased its target price on Parsley Energy, Inc. (PE:NYSE) after it posted its Q1/20 numbers.
Raymond James' new target price on Parsley is $12 per share, up from $11. The Texas-based energy company's stock is trading now at about $9.38 per share.
Freeman reviewed and commented on Parsley's Q1/20 results. The company "delivered modest EBITDA and earnings per share beats relative to the Street" due to oil pricing," Freeman pointed out.
Production was relatively in line at 126,600,000 barrels of oil per day (126.6 MMbbl/d), which was 1% higher than consensus' forecast but 1% below Raymond James' estimate. Total production was 1% above the Street's projection but 3% below Raymond James' forecast.
"The performance on the quarter was encouraging, however, the highlight from earnings was the significant reduction in 2020 capex (down from about $1 billion to less than $700 million)," Freeman commented.
Capex, "a welcome surprise," Freeman wrote, came in 5% and 7% lower than the investment bank and the Street's estimates, respectively. Opex was 3% under Raymond James' projection
Moreover, Parsley's related maintenance capital needs were greatly below expectations as well, indicating that Parsley made capital efficiency gains during the period.
"We were pleasantly surprised that Parsley is able to maintain in line Q4/20 oil volumes (about 115 MMbbl/d) on a capital program that's about $300 million/30% below the Street," added Freeman.
Looking forward, Raymond James modeled a base case, or stable scenario for Parsley, that implies a West Texas Intermediate oil price of about $30 a barrel and Parsley having four to five rigs and one to two crews operating. In that scenario, Parsley would produce about 117 MMbbl/d in 2020 and 115 MMbbl/d in 2021.
Capex would amount to about $678 million in 2020, dropping to $598 million in 2021.
Free cash flow would be about $300 million in 2020, which coincides with Parsley's guidance of $300M plus, and increasing to $370 million in 2021.
Raymond James has an Outperform rating on Parsley Energy.
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Disclosures from Raymond James, Parsley Energy Inc, May 5, 2020
ANALYST INFORMATION
Analysts Holdings and Compensation: Equity analysts and their staffs at Raymond James are compensated based on a salary and bonus system. Several factors enter into the bonus determination, including quality and performance of research product, the analyst's success in rating stocks versus an industry index, and support effectiveness to trading and the retail and institutional sales forces. Other factors may include but are not limited to: overall ratings from internal (other than investment banking) or external parties and the general productivity and revenue generated in covered stocks.
The analyst John Freeman, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report, attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers and (2) that no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report. In addition, said analyst(s) has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.
RAYMOND JAMES RELATIONSHIP DISCLOSURES
Certain affiliates of the RJ Group expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months.
Raymond James & Associates, Inc. makes a market in the shares of Parsley Energy, Inc.
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