In a May 20 research report, ROTH Capital Partners analyst Yasmeen Rahimi reported that The Medicines Company's (MDCO:NASDAQ) recent presentation on inclisiran at the National Lipid Association meeting "put the bears to sleep."
At the event, the biopharma reported interim results from ORION-3, a single-dose, open-label, parallel-group study evaluating the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) and the safety of inclisiran in patients with hepatic impairment compared to patients with normal hepatic function.
The data showed "consistent and durable LDL cholesterol lowering (51%) and spot clean safety, better than the safest cardiovascular disease drug (statins) after three treatment years (five to seven injections) in 290 patients," Rahimi noted.
The analyst highlighted that inclisiran's safety profile, consistent over time in a large patient group, should remove the overhang of siRNA drugs and cause The Medicines Company's stock to rise at least 20%.
Rahimi pointed out, too, that inclisiran is the only drug historically to lower LDL cholesterol from day 210 and have the effect persist through year three, with a time averaged reduction of about 60 milligram per deciliter (60 mg/dl) over 22 months. "A quick calculation of LDL-C lowering (about 60mg/dl) at three years translates to 35% major adverse cardiac events (MACE), setting a new record in the cardiovascular space," she added.
The Medicines Company also revealed a proprietary PK/PD model, which predicts 54% LDL cholesterol reduction in ORION-9, ORION-10 and ORION-11. This would translate into a 30–41% MACE reduction. "This smart move on data transparency not only tempers the bears but [also] ultimately increases the mergers and acquisitions price tag," Rahimi commented.
ROTH has a Buy rating and a $75 per share target price on The Medicines Company, whose current share price is around $34.88.
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Disclosures from ROTH Capital Partners, The Medicines Company, Company Note, May 20, 2019
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
ROTH makes a market in shares of The Medicines Company and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.
