In a Feb. 13 research note, BMO Capital Markets Andrew Kaip reported that strong production and sales led Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE) to achieve an earnings beat in Q4/18.
Kaip presented Kinross' Q4/18 results and 2019 projections and indicated how they compare to BMO's estimates.
The company's reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.02 and adjusted EPS of $0.01 were above BMO's forecast of $0.00.
As for Q4/18 production, Kinross achieved 610,100 ounces (610.1 Koz) of gold equivalent (Au eq), well above BMO's projection of 591.9 Koz Au eq. This was attributed to better-than-expected output at Tasiast, Paracatu and Fort Knox. Q4/18 sales were 636.2 Koz Au eq.
Operating cash flow was $183.5 million, greater than BMO's expected $167 million, due to positive working capital adjustments of $96 million.
In terms of guidance, Kinross' 2019 figures for the year are generally in line with BMO's. The company targets production of 2.5 million ounces (2.5 Moz) Au eq plus or minus 5%, which is above BMO's 2.35 Moz Au eq forecast.
Kinross guided to $445 million of sustaining capital, $540 million of project capital and $65 million of capitalized interest, a total of $1.05 billion. This compares to BMO's projection of $977 million.
All-in sustaining cost guidance for 2019 is $995 per ounce plus or minus 5%, on par with BMO's estimate of $990 ounce.
Kaip provided an update on total reserves. They declined "marginally" to 25.5 million ounces (25.5 Moz) after "accounting for depletion and additions with no material change in grade." Specifically, Measured and Indicated resources decreased by 1.8 Moz whereas Inferred resources stayed the same.
Finally, Kaip noted potential upcoming catalysts for Kinross. In late Q1/19, commissioning of Bald Mountain Vantage is anticipated, for which the company remains on schedule. In Q2/19, commissioning is scheduled for Round Mountain's phase W, also currently on track.
BMO has a Market Perform rating and a US$3.25 per share target price on Kinross, whose stock is currently trading at around US$3.49 per share.
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Disclosures from BMO Capital Markets, Kinross Gold, Feb. 13, 2019
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst's Certification
I, Andrew Kaip, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.
Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Company Specific Disclosures
Disclosure 5: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services within the past 12 months from Kinross Gold.
Disclosure 6C: Kinross Gold is a clients (or were clients) of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Capital Markets Limited or an affiliate within the past 12 months: C) Non-Securities Related Services.
Disclosure 9B: BMO Capital Markets makes a market in Kinross Gold in United States.
Disclosure 16: A research analyst has extensively viewed the material operations of Kinross Gold.v
Disclosure 17: Kinross Gold has paid or reimbursed some or all of the research analyst's travel expenses.
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