In a Nov. 2 research note, analyst Andrew Fein reported H.C. Wainwright & Co. raised its target price on Buy-rated Amarin Corp. (AMRN:NASDAQ) 55%, to $31 per share from $20, in advance of the company's REDUCE-IT study presentation on Nov. 10 at the annual American Heart Association meeting. Amarin's current stock price is around $21.87 per share.
"Although management shared limited details of the upcoming presentation, we think that the heightened interest from a broad audience, the commercial implication of the additional color on the data and a high-profile exposure at the meeting, should collectively impact investors' views on Vascepa and the stock," Fein wrote.
He reviewed what Amarin's presentation at the AHA meeting likely will and will not contain.
It will probably include a review of key data points with clinical and commercial importance, Fein relayed. Those might include the "breakdown of the primary composite MACE score (i.e., cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, unstable angina requiring hospitalization), secondary endpoints and subgroup analyses (primary prevention or secondary prevention), etc."
Amarin might reveal whether Vascepa is beneficial in primary prevention in diabetics. If it has value there, that could "expand Vascepa's market considerably," Fein indicated.
What the company most likely will not deliver at the AHA meeting is a comprehensive study analysis as it is prefers the results be published beforehand, and that is expected in Q4. "Having said that, we would not be surprised to see the publication of the REDUCE-IT study results in the New England Journal of Medicinein conjunction with the conference," noted Fein.
He pointed out that Amarin's recent commercial activities could "signal the bullish view of the company on the data." Those include the biotech growing its salesforce to around 400 representatives and expanding its supply capacity to accommodate more than $1 billion worth of sales in 2019.
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Disclosures from H.C. Wainwright & Co., Amarin Corp., Target Price Revision, November 2, 2108
I, Andrew S. Fein, Li Wang Watsek and Alicia Yin, Ph.D., certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies.
None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Amarin Corporation (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).
As of October 31, 2018 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Amarin Corporation.
Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest in of which the research analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.
The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Amarin Corporation for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report.
The Firm does not make a market in Amarin Corporation as of the date of this research report.
