On the 6-month chart for the Dow Jones Industrials, it looks like it is rolling over and set to drop again after arriving at the red downtrend line shown. However, the pattern that has formed over the past few weeks could be an intermediate base that might lead to a significant rally, especially as it has developed just above a still rising 200-day moving average.
On the 6-month chart for the S&P500 index we can see that a similar potential intermediate base has also formed. Here though it is still quite some way below the red downtrend line.
A factor making an advance from here much more likely is the latest COTs, which show the Small Specs now heavily short and the Commercials heavily long. This is a setup that typically leads to a significant rally.
Click on chart to see a larger, clearer version.
The latest Hedgers chart shows that Smart Money is a lot more bullish than Dumb Money, which also makes a rally more likely.
Click on chart to see a larger, clearer version.
Chart courtesy of sentimentrader.com
Fundamentally, a reason for a rally next week would be the West seemingly getting away with striking Syria last night, without any immediate adverse consequences. This could lead to a sense of relief and perhaps a little euphoria in the market.
Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years' experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.
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Charts provided by the author.
CliveMaund.com Disclosure:
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund's opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund's opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.
