COTS Report and Gold Positions

Source: Seeking Alpha, Gold Price Today (7/26/10)

"Commercial traders reduced their net short gold positions by 13.2%."

A look at last week's COT report (which shows a breakdown of each Tuesday's open interest for markets, and is released on Fridays) shows the large commercial traders (including the bullion banks, large dealers and swap dealers combined) reduced their net short gold positions by 13.2%. That's a big figure.

Such a large number has stirred commentators. People are pointing to the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Bill as a possible explanation. Others are suggesting a change in mentality—that the sellers are starting to think the price will not go much lower.

Commenting on Friday's commitment of traders report, Ted Butler notes, "We have a position now in gold where they've (commercials—which is where the bullion banks hide) taken out 75,000 contracts net. . .in three weeks. . .the 75000 in gold represents 7.5m ounces of gold. That's about $9bn worth. . .These are big, big declines—big three-week declines. Some of the biggest on record." Ted's bullish 80%–85% on gold and 100% on silver.

Summary

The huge decline in short positions is a bullish indicator for silver and gold prices today. And it is certainly interesting to speculate as to the possible explanations. But we can't help but be realists. And because the gold price has traded in a narrow range for a while we believe it'll take something big to change this. Whether that be movement in the IMF sale, some fundamental change in the value of the dollar (for which we note there's been no correlation to gold of late) or signs of strength/ weakness in economies.

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