Liberty Gold Corp. (LGD:TSX; LGDTF:OTCQX) released the results of the first study, a prefeasibility study (PFS), of its flagship Black Pine project in Idaho, reported Canaccord Genuity analyst Peter Bell in an Oct. 10 research note.
"The completion of the prefeasibility study is a key step in advancing the project through permitting, bringing a Black Pine mine much closer to reality," Bell wrote. "This is positive."
885% Gain Possible
Canaccord Genuity has a CA$3.25 per share price target on the Canadian Idaho-based exploration and development company, trading at the time of the report at about CA$0.33 per share, noted Bell. These figures imply a potential return on investment of 885%.
Liberty is rated Speculative Buy.
Specifics of the PFS
Bell presented the details of the Black Pine operation as outlined in the PFS, based on reserves of 3,110,000 ounces (3.11 Moz) of 0.32 grams per ton (0.32 g/t) gold.
Average production is 183,000 ounces per year (183 Koz/year) gold for the first five years, peaking at about 231 Koz. The average annual production, based on a 50,000 ton per day throughput, over a 17-year life of mine (LOM) is 135 Koz.
The PFS has the head grade during years one through five at 0.45 g/t gold. Over the LOM, the head grade is 0.32 g/t gold and gold recoveries, 70.4%.
As for costs, operating costs are low at US$9.10 per ton processed. The all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) is US$1,205 per ounce (US$1,205/oz) of gold for years one through five and US$1,380/oz of gold for the LOM.
"We believe the study highlights a simple, lower-risk and long-lived operation with an attractive cost profile," Bell wrote. "We model Liberty achieving initial production at Black Pine in 2029, based on company disclosure around the permitting process."
Attractive Economics
Bell reported the economics outlined in the PFS for the base case using a US$2,000/oz gold price. The after-tax net present value discounted at 5% (NPV5%) is US$552 million, the internal rate of return (IRR) is 32%, and the payback period is 3.3 years. The strip ratio is low at 1.3.
"Of note is the study's leverage to higher gold prices with an NPV5% of US$1,296M (62% IRR at US$2,600/oz)," Bell wrote. At the same gold price, Canaccord Genuity's estimated NPV5% is higher, at US$1,569.
Bell noted that Liberty could enhance the value of Black Pine in any of four ways, by optimizing the resource and mine planning; delineating additional ounces or feed sources; using electric, maybe even autonomous, mining equipment; and defining options for using renewable energy like solar to potentially lower operating costs more.
How Results Stack Up
The analysts pointed out the similarities and differences between Liberty Gold's PFS and Canaccord Genuity's estimates on Black Pine. Between the two, the capex, AISC, mined throughput, and NPV are consistent, "which we view as positive," Bell wrote.
Among the parameters that differ are unit costs per ton processed, strip ratio, head grade, recovery, and total recovered ounces, all lower in the PFS. Mine life, though, is longer.
"The longer mine life and lower total ounce total equate to a lower number of ounces of annual production," Bell explained.
Process and general and administrative costs are lower in the PFS, which decreases the cutoff and the overall grade when compared to Canaccord Genuity's version. Bell indicated that the lower operating cost per ton, however, is positive.
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Disclosures for Canaccord Genuity, Liberty Gold Corp., October 10, 2024
Analyst Certification Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research, and (iii) to the best of the authoring analyst’s knowledge, she/he is not in receipt of material non-public information about the issuer. Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of Canaccord Genuity LLC and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Sector Coverage Individuals identified as “Sector Coverage” cover a subject company’s industry in the identified jurisdiction, but are not authoring analysts of the report. Investment Recommendation Date and time of first dissemination: October 10, 2024, 09:56 ET Date and time of production: October 10, 2024, 09:56 ET Target Price / Valuation Methodology: Liberty Gold Corp. - LGD Our target price is based on a 0.85x multiple applied to our forward curve derived operating NAV less net debt and other corporate adjustments. Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation: Liberty Gold Corp. - LGD In addition to the usual risks to target prices associated with commodity pricing, exchange rates, and mineral exploration/ development, we highlight the following: Commodity price risk: As a precious metals development company, LGD’s future revenue is dependent on the price of gold. Water rights: The Goldstrike Project does not currently have sufficient water rights to operate the proposed mine and heap leach. They announced June 1 that they have retained consultants to attempt to obtain water. Geo-political risk: Liberty is currently focussed on the western United States but retains exposure to Turkey through the TV-Tower project. Accordingly, Liberty’s operations could be adversely impacted by political or economic instability or changes in government policy that impact the ownership of assets, mining activities, exchange rates, taxation, or royalties in Turkey. We note that Liberty’s Turkish asset, TV-Tower, accounts for less than 3% of NAV in our valuation. Mining risk: LGD faces the typical risks inherent to mining companies relating to operating and capital costs, availability of capital, permitting requirements and timelines, technical and operating parameters, reserve and resource models, social license and community relations, taxation and royalty regimes, and regulatory and political risks. Black Pine does not currently have a published economic study so the estimates in our model are based on our own interpretation of how the operation may be designed. As such, our valuation of the Black Pine project may be impacted by differences in strip ratio, CapEx, mining throughput, recovery assumptions, and gold grade. Development risk: LGD is planning to develop the Black Pine and Goldstrike projects in Idaho and Utah respectively. The company faces risks associated with developing the project including capital and operating cost risk, financing, project permitting and timelines, and technical risks to achieve the planned operating rates. Permitting risk: Permitting is still underway at the Black Pine project. As such, the company may not be able to proceed with the project as it is currently envisaged if the required permits are not received in a timely manner. Financing risk: As a pre-cash-flow development company, LGD is reliant on the capital markets to remain a going concern. At present, the company has an estimated cash position of ~US$13.1M (Q2/24), which positions the company well in the near term to continue to advance its portfolio of exploration/development projects, in our view. We note that there is no guarantee that LGD will be able to access capital markets in the future as the result of potential changes in market sentiment/pricing and/or concerns involving project feasibility. As such, there is no guarantee that LGD will be able to secure the required funds to advance the Black Pine project, including but not limited to debt/equity financing and/or a strategic investment.
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