Roth MKM Maintains Buy Rating on Energy Co. Following Insider Purchase
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Disclosures for Roth MKM, Matador Resources Co., November 1, 2024

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Disclosures: The price target and rating history for Matador Resources Co. prior to February 1, 2023 reflect MKM’s published opinion prior to the acquisition of MKM Partners, LLC by Roth Capital Partners, LLC. Within the last twelve months, ROTH Capital Partners, or an affiliate to ROTH Capital Partners, has received compensation for investment banking services from Matador Resources Co.. Within the last twelve months, ROTH Capital Partners, or an affiliate to ROTH Capital Partners, has managed or co-managed a public offering for Matador Resources Co.

Not Covered [NC]: ROTH Capital does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2024. Member: FINRA/SIPC.

Roth MKM analyst Leo Mariani, in a research report published on November 1, 2024, maintained a Buy rating on Matador Resources Co. (MTDR:NYSE) with a price target of US$68.00. The report follows the announcement that MTDR's EVP of Production Glenn Stetson purchased company shares in the open market.

Mariani highlighted the insider purchase, stating, "MTDR reported that EVP of Production Glenn Stetson bought 1,000 MTDR shares in the open market on October 30 for total proceeds of US$51,330 at an average price of US$51.33, which was 1.5% below yesterday's closing price of US$52.11."

The analyst explained his positive view on the company, noting, "We rate Matador Resources Co. (MTDR) a Buy based on the company's best-in-class production growth, strong inventory of wells, growing base dividend, and reasonable balance sheet."

Regarding Matador's operations, Mariani noted that the company has "192,000 net Permian acres, and most of its position is in the heart of the Delaware Basin. Its production mix is roughly 59% oil and 41% natural gas/NGLs." He also highlighted the company's midstream presence through its "51% ownership in San Mateo Midstream, which owns oil, gas, and water-gathering assets that are tied into MTDR's producing assets."

Roth MKM's valuation methodology is based on a multiple of Debt-Adjusted Cash Flow (DACF). Mariani explained, "Our US$68 price target for MTDR is based on a 4.2x multiple of our 2025 DACF estimate, which is based on US$70 WTI oil and US$3.10 HH gas."

The analyst also outlined several risk factors, including "slightly higher leverage than peers, completely unhedged in 2024; and acquisition risk given the company's propensity to do bolt-on M&A."

In conclusion, Roth MKM's maintenance of a Buy rating and US$68 price target reflects confidence in Matador Resources' operational excellence and growth potential in the Permian Basin. The share price at the time of the report of US$52.11 represents a potential return of approximately 30.5% to the analyst's target price, suggesting significant upside potential as the company continues to execute its development strategy.