Mass. Biotech Shares Strong Q3 Results
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Disclosures for Wedbush, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, October 29, 2024

Analyst Certification We, David Nierengarten, Dennis Pak and Martin Fan, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal opinions and that we have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with our specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

Company Specific Disclosures This information is subject to change at any time. 1. WS makes a market in the securities of Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals.

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Wedbush analysts Dr. David Nierengarten, Dennis Pak, and Dr. Martin Fan, in a research report published on October 29, 2024, maintained their Outperform rating on Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (KNSA:NASDAQ) with a price target of US$34.00. The report follows Kiniksa's Q3 2024 earnings announcement, which showed continued strong growth for Arcalyst.

The analysts highlighted the company's strong quarterly performance, stating, "Net product revenues of US$112.2MM (+73% y/y) slightly edged out our US$112.0MM estimate. Management's updated FY revenue guidance to US$410-US$420MM (previously US$405-US$415MM) implies Q4 revenue of US$115.5-US$125.5MM (3%-12% q/q growth)."

Regarding market penetration, the analysts noted, "More than 11% of patients in KNSA's target RP population of 14,000 patients that suffer from two or more recurrences are now actively on Arcalyst therapy, compared to 9% penetration at YE23." They added, "Notably, ~45% of all new prescriptions were written by repeat prescribers, which accounted for ~25% (640) of total prescriber base."

The analysts emphasized the growing duration of therapy, stating, "Importantly, average total duration of Arcalyst therapy in RP continues to grow, increasing to ~27 months as of 3Q24 from ~23 months as of 1Q24."

Regarding the company's pipeline, the report highlighted progress with abiprubart, noting, "Abiprubart's subcutaneous formulation and potential for once-monthly dosing should provide a greater dosing convenience relative to other agents and support uptake in a crowded but large market (300,000+ patients in the U.S.A.) assuming comparable efficacy."

The analysts addressed the stock's recent performance, stating, "We think today's share action reflects overoptimistic expectations investors may have had following the outsized Q2 sequential growth over a seasonally weak Q1. Net-net, we believe Arcalyst fundamentals remain strong and view current trading levels as an attractive entry point."

Wedbush's valuation methodology is based on a sum-of-parts approach. The analysts explained, "Our PT is derived from a sum-of-parts valuation for each of the company's clinical programs: an 8x multiple to KNSA's share of estimated US sales of Arcalyst in RP in 2027 and CAPS in 2025 (discounted back by 15%), and an 8x multiple to abiprubart's estimated sales in Sjogren's disease in 2029/30 (discounted back by 35%)."

In conclusion, Wedbush's maintenance of its Outperform rating and US$34 price target reflects confidence in Kiniksa's commercial execution with Arcalyst and pipeline potential. The share price at the time of the report of US$23.76 represents a potential return of approximately 43% to the analysts' target price, suggesting a significant upside as the company continues to expand its market penetration and advance its pipeline.