Alcohol giant Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ:NYSE) posted a mixed fiscal third quarter, according to Roth Capital Partners analyst Bill Kirk in a January 5 research note.
Its beer business was offset by further struggles in the wine division. Beer shipment and depletion growth both topped 6%, driving improved 38.5% operating margins, while the wine segment continued to decline despite interim downward guidance revisions.
"Wine & Spirits' disappointment has eaten the FY'24 potential upside to prior guidance," Kirk wrote in the note. "That said, the primary investment drivers: beer depletions and beer margin, remain strong and will help any stock weakness today get bought."
Though wine underperformance casts a cloud over the near-term outlook, Kirk believes Constellation's core beer portfolio anchored by Modelo and Pacifico remains an attractive long-term investment based on top-line momentum and profitability improvement.
He kept a Buy rating on shares with a US$311 price target, seeing a 29% upside for the stock trading around US$242.
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Disclosures for Roth MKM, Constellation Brands Inc., January 5, 2024
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Disclosures: The price target and rating history for Constellation Brands, Inc. prior to February 1, 2023 reflect MKM’s published opinion prior to the acquisition of MKM Partners, LLC by Roth Capital Partners, LLC.
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2024. Member: FINRA/SIPC
