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TICKERS: VRCA

Strong Early Launch Metrics for Biotech's Skin Disease Drug
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Oren Livnat of H.C. Wainwright & Co. sees over 240% upside potential for Verrica Pharmaceuticals based on the early commercial success of its recently launched skin disease treatment.

West Chester, Pennsylvania-based Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRCA:NASDAQ) reported solid early launch metrics for its newly approved drug YCANTH to treat molluscum contagiosum (MC), noted HC Wainwright analyst Oren Livnat in a November 20 research report.

The analyst reiterated a Buy rating and US$12 price target on Verrica.

Rapid Doctor and Patient Adoption Seen

According to Livnat, over 3,000 healthcare providers have already been trained on using YCANTH, with 1,300 offices receiving product samples. The company is also seeing faster-than-expected uptake among pediatricians.

The drug achieved formulary access at several key hospitals, and reimbursement coverage has expanded to over 100 million lives, providing a strong foundation for growth.

Upcoming Catalysts for Upside

The analyst expects accelerating adoption as YCANTH receives its permanent reimbursement code in January. Additional 2023 catalysts include clearing unauthorized competing products from the market and advancing the pipeline.

Verrica's cash balance of US$84 million provides funding into early 2025.

Significant Upside from US$300M Peak Sales Potential

HC Wainwright's US$12 price target on Verrica implies over 240% upside for the shares, based on the firm's peak sales forecast of US$300 million for YCANTH in MC alone.

Additional pipeline assets like VP-102 for other skin conditions could provide further upside.

In summary, the rapid doctor and patient adoption in the early launch combined with a robust coverage and reimbursement landscape position Verrica for significant appreciation, in the analyst's view.


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  1. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc., November 20, 2023

This material is confidential and intended for use by Institutional Accounts as defined in FINRA Rule 4512(c). It may also be privileged or otherwise protected by work product immunity or other legal rules. If you have received it by mistake, please let us know by e-mail reply to [email protected] and delete it from your system; you may not copy this message or disclose its contents to anyone. The integrity and security of this message cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO, LLC RATING SYSTEM: H.C. Wainwright employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potential return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on a RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potential movements in price that a given equity could reach provided certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject to external factors including industry events and market volatility.

H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

I, Oren Livnat, CFA , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Verrica Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of October 31, 2023 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Verrica Pharmaceuticals, Inc..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The firm or its affiliates received compensation from Verrica Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for non-investment banking services in the previous 12 months.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Verrica Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report.

The Firm does not make a market in Verrica Pharmaceuticals, Inc. as of the date of this research report.

The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. This research report is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used to provide tax advice to any person. Electronic versions of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC research reports are made available to all clients simultaneously. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the expressed permission of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC. Additional information available upon request. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC does not provide individually tailored investment advice in research reports. This research report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this research report.

H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC’s and its affiliates’ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.

H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding its analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research report.

The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or security discussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.

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