Oncology Company Given Neutral Rating as Q1/26 Beat Sets Up Catalyst
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Disclosures for Wedbush Securities, Novocure, April 30, 2026

Valuation 3x/8x mult. of our 2026E sales/royalty est. (discounted back 11%) + 8x mult. of 2027E brain met sales (discounted back 40%). Company Description NovoCure is an emerging player in the oncology market with its flagship product, Optune, which is approved in multiple countries for the treatment of newly-diagnosed and recurrent glioblastoma (GBM) and malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) Risks to the Attainment of Our Price Target and Rating: Upside risk to our current PT and rating include better-than-expected Optune sales and TTFields being broadly de-risked clinically and/or potential premiums associated around M&A activity. Further downside risk to our PT and rating include poorer-than-expected Optune sales/adoption and clinical failure of TTFields in multiple indications. 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On April 30, 2026, analysts David Nierengarten, Dennis Pak, and Martin Fan of Wedbush Securities reiterated a Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of US$18.00 on Novocure Ltd. (NVCR:NASDAQ), implying upside of roughly 26.6% from the April 30, 2026 closing price of US$14.22, following a Q1/26 revenue beat and the company's first quarter of contribution from the newly approved Optune Pax device in pancreatic cancer.

Q1/26 revenue of US$174.1 million (-0.2% q/q, +12% y/y) topped Wedbush's US$170.7 million estimate, aided by approximately US$2.5 million of one-time benefits tied to higher approval rates in Germany and US$1 million tied to contract performance improvements in France. Excluding those items, organic revenue of approximately US$170.6 million was in line with the firm's estimate. Total active patients reached 4,791 globally, with 4,543 on Optune Gio (+9% y/y), 165 on Optune Lua (+56% y/y), and 83 on Optune Pax at quarter-end. Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to a range of US$690–710 million from US$675–705 million, while keeping the combined Optune Lua and Optune Pax contribution range at US$15–25 million.

The core glioblastoma (GBM) franchise continued to show steady international momentum, with Japan, Germany, and France contributing 20%, 12%, and 9% y/y active patient growth, respectively. U.S. active patients grew 4% y/y to 2,250, and management expects low-to-mid single-digit active patient growth in mature markets, with higher growth anticipated in newer geographies such as Spain and Czechia. Gross margin expanded to 78% from 75% in Q1/25, driven by lower array costs from improved utilization and supplier pricing, although management continues to guide to mid-70s gross margin for the full year as Optune Pax patients ramp ahead of broader reimbursement.

Early launch metrics for Optune Pax look encouraging, with 169 prescriptions received and 83 active patients on therapy in the seven weeks following FDA approval. The analysts noted they "would like to see a few additional quarters of momentum before getting more constructive on the opportunity" and expect reimbursement dynamics to limit near-term revenue contribution. They continue to view the lung opportunity as constrained by competition from targeted therapies and IO/chemo regimens, as well as limited median treatment duration in a relatively sick population.

Looking ahead, TRIDENT topline data remain the most meaningful near-term catalyst, with results expected in Q2/26. Positive data could extend the duration of therapy in the core GBM franchise by moving TTFields initiation earlier into the chemoradiation phase, though even with success, adoption will take time to translate into meaningful revenue. Beyond TRIDENT, the PMA decision in brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is expected in Q4/26, alongside completion of enrollment in the Phase 3 KEYNOTE-D58 trial evaluating TTFields plus pembrolizumab in newly diagnosed GBM. The analysts continue to view brain metastases as a narrow commercial opportunity given limited treatment duration and poor prognosis.

The US$18.00 price target reflects a sum-of-parts valuation based on a 3× multiple to worldwide 2026E Optune sales in GBM, an 8× multiple to 2026E Zai Lab royalties, and a pipeline valuation that includes an 8× multiple to TTFields sales in metastatic brain cancer from NSCLC (40% discount), an 8× multiple to TTFields sales in 1L and 2L NSCLC (15–35% discount), and an 8× multiple to TTFields sales in 1L locally advanced pancreatic cancer (15% discount). Upside risks include better-than-expected Optune sales, broader clinical de-risking of TTFields, and potential M&A premiums, while downside risks include weaker-than-expected Optune sales/adoption and clinical failure of TTFields across multiple indications.

Company information at the time of the report included a market capitalization of US$1,382 million, an enterprise value of US$1,281 million, 108.2 million shares outstanding, a 52-week range of US$9.82–20.06, cash per share of US$3.98, tangible book value per share of US$3.03, and net debt of US(252.63) million. Wedbush forecasts FY26 total revenue of US$707.3 million (raised from US$695.3 million prior) and FY27 revenue of US$765.3 million (raised from US$728.7 million), with EPS estimates of US (1.42) for FY26 and US$(0.86) for FY27.