Energy Sector Delivers Big Gains on Long-Term Buy Signal
Contributed Opinion

1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Pan American Silver Corp., Wheaton Precious Metals, and Barrick Mining Corp. 
2. Jack Chan: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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Jack Chan Disclosures

We do not offer predictions or forecasts for the markets. What you see here is our simple trading model which provides us the signals and set ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time. Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion.

Jack Chan is the editor of Simply Profits at www.simplyprofits.org, established in 2006. Jack bought his first mining stock, Hoko Exploration in 1979, and has been active in the markets for the past 46 years. Technical analysis has helped him filter out the noise and focus on the when, and leaving the why to the fundamental analysts. His proprietary trading models have enabled him to identify the Nasdaq top in 2000, the new gold bull market in 2001, the stock market top in 2007, the US dollar bottom in 2011, and most recently, the new bull market in the oil/energy sector.

In his spare time, Jack is an avid golfer and tennis player, and volunteers his time coaching and lecturing at local clubs and universities.

Jack trades and invests in sector ETFs only, and has no affiliation or ownership in any of the individual stocks within this roster.

The energy sector has been on a long-term buy signal since late 2025.

USO – we are long from 70.22, holding with no stops.

Current pivot support at 110.

XLE – we are long from 45.89 & 58.78, holding with no stops.

Current pivot support at 53.50.

Here are some top oil companies that some of our members are holding:

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM:NYSE) - current pivot support at 142.

Exxon Mobil Corp exhibits a positive correlation with oil prices, meaning the stock generally moves in the same direction as crude oil.

As an integrated energy company, Exxon's profitability is heavily influenced by the market price of the commodities it produces and sells.

Data analysis shows a consistent link between the daily returns of Exxon Mobil and crude oil prices. Based on long-term historical data encompassing nearly 3,500 data points, the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and XOM stock is approximately 0.44.

XOM's massive US$20 billion annual share buyback program tends to support the stock price even during temporary dips in oil.

Chevron Corp. (CVX:NYSE) – current pivot support at 176.

Chevron stock is highly correlated with oil prices, often acting as a leveraged bet on crude, with roughly 57% of its stock price movement historically explained by changes in oil and natural gas prices. As an integrated oil major, Chevron typically benefits from rising petroleum prices, which enhance its cash flow and stock performance.

Surging oil prices act as a strong catalyst for CVX, leading to increased free cash flow and boosted shareholder returns via stock buybacks.

While Chevron is a "lower-for-longer" beneficiary due to its low-cost asset base, the stock still faces downward pressure if oil prices drop below US$60.

ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE) – current pivot support at 111.

ConocoPhillips stock shows a strong positive correlation with oil prices, with near-term earnings buoyed by high oil prices. The company is viewed as a "defensive play" in the oil sector, holding the largest potential for net present value gains when prices rise.

Analysts maintain a strong buy consensus on COP stock, with expectations of continued upside due to disciplined capital investment and its large, low-cost inventory base.

While elevated oil prices support strong dividends, a "hold" rating is applied by some analysts, suggesting the stock's rapid rally has limited its potential for long-term outperformance.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY:NYSE) – current pivot support at 51.

Occidental Petroleum stock is trading as a high-beta play on oil prices, meaning it is highly leveraged to fluctuations in crude oil, particularly WTI (West Texas Intermediate). The company's valuation is heavily linked to its dominant position in the Permian Basin and its debt-reduction strategy, which relies on strong cash flow from high oil prices.

OXY is a high-conviction bet on sustained high oil prices, with significant growth potential during upswings, but notable downside risk if global oil markets experience a sharp downturn.

EOG Resources Inc. (EOG:NYSE) – current pivot support at 124.

EOG Resources acts as a high-beta, pure-play exploration and production company, meaning its stock price and free cash flow are highly sensitive to crude oil price volatility. As a low-cost producer, EOG often outperforms during rising oil prices, with production expected to increase in 2026 amid strong demand and geopolitical tailwinds, despite high capital investment plans.

As a U.S. shale operator, EOG has higher flexibility compared to conventional producers to quickly adjust production levels, making its cash flow and stock performance closely tied to real-time changes in global oil benchmarks.

Summary

We are currently 60% invested in the sector, holding with no stops.

We prefer ETFs for diversification, simple execution, and management.

Folks who prefer some of these top oil companies can simply follow our trading model for the sector, either holding for the long term or trading in the short term.

End of report