BC Names Massive KSM Gold Project as a Province Priority

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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT) announced that its KSM Project has been designated as a provincial priority project by the Province of British Columbia, according to an April 30 release.

This significant recognition is part of the province's strategy to promote strategic developments that create jobs throughout the region, the company noted. By being included on the priority project list, the KSM Project will receive dedicated provincial permitting coordination and support, which is anticipated to make the permitting process more efficient and faster.

The KSM Project stands out as one of the largest undeveloped copper and gold projects globally, containing substantial proven and probable reserves of 7.3 billion pounds of copper (Cu) and 47.3 million ounces of gold (Moz Au), or 2.29 billion tonnes grading 0.64 grams per tonne (g/t) Au and .14% Cu. This positions the project as a crucial long-term source of critical minerals that are essential for electrification and the global energy transition.

The provincial designation underscores the project's vast scale, its significant economic potential over the long term, and its alignment with British Columbia's Look West strategy, Seabridge said. This strategy aims to advance major projects, enhance economic security, and promote the responsible development of the province’s natural resources.

"Recognition of KSM as a provincial priority project reflects the quality of the work completed to date and the value KSM represents for British Columbia and Canada," said Seabridge Chair and Chief Executive Officer Rudi Fronk. "Dedicated permitting support will ensure that the significant effort invested by our team, our First Nation partners, local communities and government agencies evolves into a responsible and rewarding development."

Fronk also emphasized the company's ongoing commitment to working closely with local communities and Indigenous groups, including the Nisga'a Lisims Government, Tahltan Central Government, and Gitxsan Hereditary Chiefs Office, who have long supported the KSM project.

"We remain committed to respectful, transparent engagement with them as the project advances," he said.

17 Major New Investments Added to 'Look West' Plan

According to a report by The Canadian Press published by CoastReporter on April 29, British Columbia expanded its list of priority projects by adding 17 new major investments, as announced by Premier David Eby. Despite recent controversies surrounding Indigenous rights legislation, Eby reassured that these developments would not be affected.

During a press conference on Wednesday, Eby, along with other government officials, announced that projects worth CA$88 billion are set to advance in the next three years. These projects are part of the Look West plan, initiated last year to fast-track approvals for 18 projects, including various mines and clean energy initiatives. The addition of 17 more projects is seen as a crucial step towards bolstering B.C.'s economy to become more independent.

Since the inception of the Look West plan, significant progress has been made, including the permitting of five major mines, the report noted. These include the Quintette coal mine, an extension to the Highland Valley Copper mine, and the Eskay Creek mine, showcasing the plan's effectiveness in enhancing the province's industrial landscape.

A report by Mining.com noted that Seabridge Gold's Kerr-Sulphurets-Mitchell (KSM) project, located in British Columbia, is the world's top gold project.

Seabridge has committed over two decades and approximately CA$1 billion to developing KSM, moving it well beyond the exploration phase into significant infrastructure development. This investment has facilitated the construction of transmission connections, roads, drilling operations, and water-diversion tunnels. Throughout this extensive development process, Seabridge has maintained a strong focus on community engagement, particularly with Indigenous communities.

The company has not only secured benefits agreements with the Nisga'a and Tahltan Nations but has also directed nearly CA$400 million towards contracts with Indigenous-affiliated businesses, underscoring its commitment to local economic participation and community involvement.

Seabridge to Spin Out Courageous Lake

Mike Kozak of Cantor Fitzgerald recently updated his analysis on Seabridge's strategic move to spin out its Courageous Lake open-pit gold project in the Northwest Territories into a new entity named Valor Gold. This plan, initially announced on December 16, 2025, is progressing towards its execution, with Valor Gold expected to begin trading on the TSX and OTCQB exchanges by early to mid-June.

As part of the spin-out, Seabridge will distribute one Valor Gold share for every 1.952 shares held by its current shareholders, the analyst noted. This distribution hinges on the approval from Seabridge shareholders, with a special meeting scheduled for May 22 to seek this approval. A final order hearing is set for May 27 to approve the transaction, with the completion expected shortly after.

Financially, Seabridge is set to support Valor Gold by providing CA$10 million in cash. This includes purchasing 0.7 million shares of Valor at CA$7.29 each, totaling CA$5.1 million, and acquiring a 10% gold stream at a fixed price of US$4,000 per ounce for an additional CA$4.9 million. According to Kozak, the spinout is a positive development for Seabridge, positioning Valor Gold with an anticipated market capitalization of around CA$400 million, based on the indicative financing price of CA$7.29 per share.

This strategic move is seen as beneficial as it likely unlocks immediate value for Seabridge shareholders. The Courageous Lake project, which had been somewhat eclipsed by Seabridge’s larger KSM project in British Columbia, is now projected to contribute about CA$400 million in market cap to Valor Gold. This translates to approximately CA$2.75 per Seabridge share.

Kozak maintained a "Buy" rating for Seabridge with a target price of CA$66 per share, reflecting a potential return of 119% at the time of his note. This rating underscores the positive outlook for Seabridge’s strategic decision to spin out the Courageous Lake project, emphasizing the anticipated beneficial impact on shareholder value.

The Courageous Lake project, according to the updated 2024 Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS), is now envisioned as a smaller, less capital-intensive operation than previously planned, with an expected annual gold production of 201,000 ounces at an All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of US$999 per ounce over a 13-year mine life, RBC Capital Markets Analyst Josh Wolfson said in a research note dated April 27.

The revised plan includes a 7,500 tons per day processing plant with an initial capital expenditure of US$747 million. The reserve grade has been updated to 2.6 g/t, supporting contained metal of 2.8 Moz, compared to 2.2 g/t and 6.5 Moz in the 2021 PFS. Measured and Indicated resources are reported at 11 Moz of gold, with only 25% included in the PFS mine design.

The project's economics project a post-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at a 5% discount rate of US$523 million and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 21% at a gold price of US$1,850 per ounce. RBC Capital Markets has rated the stock as Outperform with a price target of US$71 per share, indicating a potential 135% return from the share price at the time the note was written.

According to FactSet, B. Riley Securities Analyst Nick Giles gave Seabridge a Buy rating with a CA$65 on April 20, a 44% return when the note was written.

The Catalyst: Gold Rallies on Manufacturing Data

Gold prices experienced a sluggish start this morning but subsequently rallied into positive territory, surpassing US$4,600 per ounce, wrote Neils Christensen for Kitco News on May 1. The upward movement gained further momentum following the release of disappointing manufacturing data.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Friday that its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for April remained static at 52.7%, contrary to expectations from economists who anticipated a slight increase to 53.1. The report indicated that the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to heavily influence sentiment within the manufacturing sector.

Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, detailed the sentiment in the sector, noting, "In this second month of the Iran War (at the time of data collection), 31% of the comments were positive and 69% negative, with a positive to negative sentiment ratio of 1 to 2.2. Among comments, the war was mentioned in 47% and tariffs in 18%. As was the case last month, some panelists referenced both topics within a single comment or in mixed sentiment.”

Following a night of steady losses, the gold market began to see bullish activity after the North American markets opened, with prices reaching session highs in response to the ISM's lackluster data. Spot gold was last seen trading at US$4,657.33 an ounce, marking a 0.75% increase for the day.

Deutsche Bank has highlighted the potential for gold to significantly benefit from the ongoing global shift away from the US dollar as a primary reserve asset, particularly among nations. In a recent analysis, the German investment bank pointed out that central banks, especially in emerging economies, are increasingly turning to gold as a safeguard against potential Western sanctions. Since the 2008 financial crisis, these central banks have added over 225 million ounces of gold to their reserves, while their holdings in US dollars have decreased from over 60% in the early 2000s to about 40% today.

According to an April 28 report by Mining.com, the trend of accumulating gold is not limited to the major holders like China, Russia, India, and Turkey. Deutsche Bank notes that other countries, including Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, are also expanding their gold reserves. The bank predicts that if this trend persists, gold could account for 40% of global central bank reserves, up from the current 30%.

In a simulation, Deutsche Bank projected that gold prices could reach US$8,000 an ounce within the next five years, marking a nearly 80% increase from current levels. While this price projection is theoretical and not an official forecast, it reflects the broader industry sentiment that gold is likely to be the primary beneficiary of the global movement towards de-dollarization, as confidence in US assets continues to wane.

This perspective is supported by a survey from the World Gold Council last year, which indicated that economic and geopolitical uncertainties are major factors driving central banks to increase their gold reserves, the Mining.com piece noted. So far this year, gold has already seen a nearly 8% increase, continuing the strong buying momentum from last year. However, recent geopolitical tensions, such as the US-Iran war, have led to a decline in gold prices, erasing two-thirds of its gains from January when it reached a record high.

Ownership and Share Structure¹

Management and insiders hold approximately 2% of the company, while institutions own about 60%. The remainder is held by retail investors.

Friedberg Mercantile Group Ltd. holds 15.05%, Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust holds 9.94%, Van Eck Associates Corp. holds 6.66%, and Kopernik Global Investors L.L.C. holds 6.5%.

There are around 107.37 million shares outstanding, with the company having a market cap of CA$4.07 billion and trading within a 52-week range of CA$15.56 to CA$54.29.