As I was watching the events of the past ten days, I found myself listening to President Trump telling the world that "the Strait of Hormuz will never be closed again" with one eye on the NASDAQ 100 and the other eye on his popularity ratings as handicapped by Polymarket & Kalshi, the increasingly popular prediction markets that act as living polls for such things as elections, geopolitical events, and major sporting events. If there ever was a scorecard for skill and bravado, the American President was given an "11" out of "10" possible points for the manner in which he managed not the war in Iran or the negotiations that led to the ceasefire, but rather the incredible manner in which he deftly managed the stock market, which this week hit record highs for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100.
The departure of outright bellicosity in the Middle East ushered in trillions of dollars of stock purchases with an exact replica of the "Liberation Day" about-face made by President Trump one year ago when he abandoned those dastardly tariffs with his "90-day moratorium" sounding the clarion call for portfolio managers to buy back all those shares they sold during the prior month of March when their credit and compliance officers ordered them to "reduce leverage". So, just as occurred in 2025, what appeared as a certain termination of the Wall Street gravy train once again turned into the best scorecard an acting president could ever ask for — record highs.
In the interim, lost in all of the festivities, which included CNBC street-dancing, drum-beating, and cymbal clashing, was any and all discussion of the original purpose that Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, coerced Trump & Co. to blow up the American bank account with military expenditures that included an estimated cost of between $35 billion and $51 billion. The conflict, which began in late February, cost taxpayers approximately $1 billion per day, and lest we all forget, this foray was intended to accomplish the following:
- Secure Iran's enriched uranium being used to manufacture a nuclear weapon
- Neutralize Iran's ability to disrupt the region militarily, and
- Replace the theocratic regime with Western-friendly personnel.
To date, there has been zero evidence that any of the above objectives were achieved.
Quite on the contrary, here is what has been achieved since the U.S.-Israeli raids commenced:
- More aircraft were lost in a month in Iran than in eleven years in Iraq
- Oil producers in the U.S. received as massive pay raise,
- All major U.S. stock indices saw record highs, and
- President Trump's legacy is now pristine.
Not all is ideal in MAGA-land these days though as the mid-term elections are now looking increasingly more in favour of a "blue wave" sweeping the Senate and the House. The frightening spectre of accelerating vetoes from the executive branch of government is actually assisting traders in removing fear of bothersome interference from the White House in the form of tariffs or Fed attacks or even insulting the Pope. It stands to reason because if you get a left-wing sweep of the legislative arm of government and a right winger has the power of veto over virtually anything proposed by Democratic lawmakers, you have stalemate. In the parliamentary system such as we have in Canada, markets love minority governments because nothing drastic can ever become law unless it passes mustard with the majority of seated members. If you try and raise taxes to support the right, the left say "NO!" and the bill fails to pass. Life goes on; members get their inflation-adjusted salaries; and business carries on without government oversight. A veritable "dream come true"…
From what I see, read, and hear in the U.S., the stock market "tail" simply continues to wag the economic "dog" because the headlines the last few days, whether it be CNBC or Bloomberg or Fox News, seemed to dwell dotingly on the record highs springing up faster then the daffodils on my front lawn. One week ago, the world was fretting the outcome of V.P Vance's meeting with the Iranian leaders with expectations of a certain Armageddon-like outcome sure to arrive on Monday morning had he failed. However, that was not what happened. What I believe actually occurred was this: Just as a performing magician wants the audience to focus on the pink handkerchief being waved frantically in his right hand, President Trump sent Vance to Iran as his personal "pink handkerchief" while he was in New York meeting with a battery of traders that control prices for S&P 500 futures, the NASDAQ, bonds, and oil. Trump was now the other hand of the magician, stealthily and steadily guiding that left hand (the one without the pink handkerchief) into the left pocket where that lovely white dove would magically emerge. And emerge it did when Monday's markets opened with virtually nothing in the way of a "deal" being done other than have the mainstream media all mesmerized by the dancing ticker tape. It was a masterful job with all parties working diligently to commend President Trump for his deft handling of the Iranian conflict with the obvious verdict being delivered by an S&P 500 at 7,122 a NASDAQ at 26,672, and nobody even thinking about war.
You see, nothing matters today other than the level of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The "asymmetrical wealth effect" is alive and well because the upper portion of the "K" economy continues to thrive. Those with financial assets thrive while those without financial assets wallow in the agony of inflationary poverty. When the rules of engagement are changed to accommodate only the wealthy, the outcome can never be good, but that matters not to the World according to Trump.
As I have told subscribers countlessly over the past six years, I abhor the markets of 2020-2026. I abhor anything that does not include free and fair markets where government is absolutely prohibited from influencing as much as one share of stock under any and all circumstances.
The world is as close to a global war as it has been since 1939, and the folks at CNBC are donning the "Dow 100,000" hats as though the National Debt dropped during the Iranian conflict…Incredible.
Highlights
As I descend from my soap box and put away the magic megaphone called "keyboard" that allows me to sip a fine Malbec and type my thoughts out through the morass of arthritic fingers and ankles, I was actually quite thankful this week as I looked back at the manner in which my subscribers and I navigated the events of the past few months. The highlights for me were as follows:
- Identifying the top of the silver market in late January and actually profiting from the move.
- Riding out the short position in Tesla Inc. (TSLA:NASDAQ) and covering at a profit after being seriously offside for most of 2025. (Adding near the December peak saved me.)
- Identifying the lows in copper — my favourite metal.
- Identifying the bottom of the precious metals correction on March 20 and buying GDX:US, GDXJ:US, and (most importantly) FCX, within one dollar of the low.
That I was finally able to replace the position I held for years in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE) on March 20 at $52.30 and load the accounts with a goodly number of June $55 call options, was especially splendid. You see, I was first draft choice to the "All-Amateur Team" last September when I was spooked out of a core position in FCX:US with the Grasberg Mine mud rush that took the stock from $46 to under $35 in two trading sessions.
Here we are, seven months later and the stock is well on its way to my 2026 target of $100 per share. The world's largest producer of copper, 30% of revenues are derived from gold production both in primary operations and bi-product recoveries in mines scattered around the world.
However, before you all run out and sign up for Rick Rule's "Copper Boot Camp" (followed by ten exclamation marks), understand that FCX:US (and copper itself) have moved into "overbought" territories and while we all know that markets can stay overbought a lot longer than one might remain solvent, the smart move is to stay liquid and wait. (FCX:US has a superb chart, though, and it takes a mountain of discipline to refrain from loading up.)
And then there are the junior miners…
Judging from the rebound in the TSX Venture Exchange, one might surmise that the world of the junior explorers and developers was all rosy. Every morning (and evening for that matter), I get bombarded with 100 emails picking my well-marinated brain (after all these years) about the junior mining space. I try my utmost to answer solidly and without any kind of agenda which is tough to do when you own such egregiously oversized positions in a number of what can only be classified as "highly-speculative" stocks.
I use the term "highly-speculative" because I always need to remind the people that deliver that term to remember the difference between "speculation" and "gambling". For those of you that know me and follow my work, please be forewarned; this is a repeat. In the Oxford Dictionary, the term "gambling" is defined as "a venture engaged in without calculation" while the term "speculation" is defined as "a venture engaged in with calculation".
As a professional speculator, and as a double major in finance and marketing from the 9th-ranked undergrad university in the U.S. with an additional degree for the Wharton School, I understand the term "calculation". I understand how to analyse balance sheets and income statements and while these skills mean nothing in today's manipulated markets, identifying resource companies that are undervalued and underappreciated is like choosing from ten beach balls all sitting ten feet underwater as you try to choose which one breaks the surface first. It becomes a futile exercise because once one realizes that they are all going up thanks to gravity and not "analytical prowess", the task of stock selection becomes effortless. This is because we have very recently entered the last wave of the bull cycle in commodities and it is going to last without interruption until this decade is over.
There will be bumps and bruises along the way but the resource companies that have demonstrated the ability to raise money and develop resources will be the companies that break on out to the other side. The problem they have is that most portfolio managers are indoctrinated with the serum that says Telsa Inc. at 360 times earnings is "cheap" and undervalued while Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB) whose market cap is $19.00 per ounce with a resource in mining-friendly Nevada is "too speculative". So, those beach balls all bob up and down beneath the waves poised and ready to explode to the surface as soon as sanity returns.
Shifting gears to the larger news events of the week, the U.S. Senate voted narrowly to overturn a 20-year ban on mining in the Superior National Forest located in northeastern Minnesota in a area called the Duluth Mining District. This district holds a number of incredible mineral deposits many of which contain ample quantities of minerals such as titanium and copper, and nickel considered to be "strategic minerals" deemed necessary for the maintenance of national security.
The argument being forwarded to the environmentalists is that exploitation of these lands is both necessary and vital in order to free America from the shackles of overdependence on Asian (mainly Chinese) sources of these very minerals vital to the growth of the artificial intelligence "arms race" that has the U.S. pitted against the Chinese for global dominance.
One example of this is gallium: A critical mineral for interceptor missiles and radar units, China maintains a near-monopoly on its processing and used this leverage to complicate U.S. efforts to rebuild weapon caches depleted during strikes on Iran. It is going to be exceedingly difficult to justify a moratorium on mining in Minnesota so college professors in Minneapolis can go hiking in the woods in northeastern Minnesota if it results in a weakening of the country' national defence.
While this district is not out of the woods yet, it is critical that Antofagasta has the Twin Metals Minnesota (TMM) Project situated on federal lands. This is important because it is estimated to include annual production in the range of 100 million pounds of copper, 23 million pounds of nickel, and over a million pounds of cobalt with cobalt a critical component in battery technology.
While actual mine permits are still issued by the state government in Minneapolis, the Senate vote sets up a confrontation between the feds and local lobbies like The Sierra Club which want to keep the Superior National Forest as the exclusive domain of hikers and campers while the unemployment rate in that part of the country was 6% at last count versus the national average of 4.3%.
Not only does Antofagasta have a stake in this permitting drive, also dominant in the region is the New Range Copper-Nickel LLC project, a joint undertaking by Canada's Teck Resources and Swiss mining giant Glencore International AG.
There is one junior Canadian company that stands to piggyback on the efforts of these gigantic miners in the campaign to exploit the incredible riches proven to exist underground in this part of the U.S., and that is Green Bridge Metals Corp. (GRBM:CSE; GBMCF:OTC; J48:FWB), which owns the Serpentine, Titac, and Chrome Puddy deposits in the region.
They are currently drilling the Titac property where significant amounts of titanium, (which is used for jet engines, airframes, and spacecraft components where weight reduction and heat resistance are critical) has been identified.
Also part of the GRBM/GBMCF portfolio is the Serpentine Property, estimated to contain 280 million tonnes of .53% Cu-Eq mineralization within this large copper-nickel deposit.
The company is capped at CAD $50 million but when one looks at the replacement value of Serpentine alone, one can only imagine how the market will respond if either Antofagasta or Tech/Glencore are successful in their efforts to build their mines.
The key to this position lies in the leverage contained in a positive outcome in the permitting area but success will not be limited to that.
If management is successful in increasing the confidence level in the economic viability of Titac, valuation can only increase for a company whose share price closed at CAD $.23 on Friday.
Subscribers and I have been building positions in GRBM/GBMCF over the past six months in anticipation of a rerating to CAD $150-200 million market cap over the course of 2026 an event which I consider highly probable.
The bet I am making is that national defense and independence from Chinese control in critical mineral supplies will take precedence over environmental concerns as the pendulum of popular opinion swings from left to right and from the ecology to jobs.
QQQ
When you are looking at charts of the QQQ:US, remember this very old and very corny limerick that most certainly came from the Irish pubs that lined Wall Street back in the 1920's:
"He who sells what isn't his'n, must deliver or goes to prison."
What that means is that if you short a stock that decides to go against you, you are going to be forced to cover that short at a loss and usually at a big loss. For most of February, the hedge fund community was unloading every excess piece of leveraged longs in their portfolios that wasn't nailed down because the prevailing narrative was that the war was going poorly; oil at $100/bbl. was going to cripple the world economy; and the U.S. dollar was going to zero. By the time March went out, trillions of dollars of leverage had been wrung out of the markets but more importantly, a substantial number of previously-extinct short sellers had crept back into the room and were gleefully rubbing their hands together thinking that since the "debasement trade" was finished, they would short gold and silver; and since the "AI trade" was finished because with $100 oil, they would also short the MAG Seven. I mean, after all, who can afford the CAPEX buildout associated with those monstrous data farms with the global economy in tatters?
By last Friday afternoon, thanks to the orange-haired magician and his band of merry traders, the short sellers were being air-lifted from the Street in body bags, returned once again to the status of "extinct" from whence they came.
This upcoming week will be interesting to say the least. I have a lingering suspicion that the euphoria of the short squeeze of the past thirteen days of "lift" will be tempered somewhat. I have no statistical proof but in watching the tape on Friday, it felt and smelled like an "exhaustion move" with the shorts finally capitulating which would explain the enormity of the gap since March 30th. The magnitude of the advance reeked of desperation and whether it was the final gasp of Wall Street trying to breathe life support into a wheezing bull is a topic for another day but one thing is certain. The fuzzy-cheeked kiddies that bought into the post-Liberation-Day hijinks of a year ago have placed the same wager today. "Trump and the Fed have our backs so ya gotta stay long!" is the new mantra for the K-class and based upon the events of 2025, why would one bet against them?
Alas, as a creaky old-timer with too much idle time on his hands, I will take the other side of that bet and look to slowly and very methodically buy back all of those hedges I lifted in late March at the lows and continue to add until I feel confident that the sanity has indeed returned. Of course, I have that chart of Tesla Inc. pinned to the wall above my quote screen with pictures of empty bottles of Valium and assorted spirits to remind me of what I went through last year with the "Musk Moonshot" to almost $500 per share. It was not, as they say "pretty". In the words of the famous carpet buyer in downtown Brampton, "caveat emptor"…
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Important Disclosures:
- Green Bridge Metals Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
- As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Tesla Inc., Getchell Gold Corp., and Green Bridge Metals Corp.
- Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Freeport-McMoRan, Green Bridge Metals Corp., and Getchell Gold. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
- Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
- This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.
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Michael Ballanger Disclosures
This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.
