Defense Drone Market Growth Accelerates as Earnings Date Approaches

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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT:NASDAQ) announced that it will report financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, after the U.S. financial markets close on March 18, 2026. The company stated it will host a live video webinar at 4:30 p.m. ET on the same day to discuss the results.

According to the company, the webinar will be conducted on the Zoom platform, and questions will only be taken from video webinar participants. Participants may register in advance through the company's investor relations website, where login instructions will be provided after registration. The company also stated that an archived replay of the event will be available on its investor relations website beginning approximately two hours after the call concludes.

Defense Industrial Base Faces Modernization Pressures as Drone Market Expands

According to a February 18 article by Clark Dressen of MxD, casting and forging had "served as the backbone of industrial power," and in aerospace and defense, these processes were described as "vital to national security."

He wrote that the sector faced "a period of unprecedented urgency" as global competition intensified and maintaining "a self-reliant, technologically superior industrial base" had become a primary mandate for national defense. Dressen also noted that the industry was "battling high operational costs and a scarcity of government incentives" and that many domestic foundries still relied on "fragmented technical data in outdated 2D formats" without the Industry 4.0 tools needed to remain competitive.

Reuters reported on February 20 that new U.S. cybersecurity rules were leading some small suppliers to reconsider military work due to compliance costs. Margaret Boatner of the Aerospace Industries Association stated that "the accumulation of complex and costly regulatory requirements is forcing them to reconsider if not exit the defense marketplace altogether, further challenging the health and resilience of the industrial base." Alex Major, a lawyer advising contractors, said the certification requirements could "inadvertently reduce competition in the lower rungs of the defense supply chain." The report also noted that compliance expenses for some companies reached hundreds of thousands of dollars, including one executive who said he would need to spend CA$500,000 to meet requirements in Europe and the United States.

Grand View Research stated in a recent industry report that "the global drone market size is estimated at US$73.06 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$163.60 billion by 2030," with growth driven by "rapid advancements in drone technology, improvements in battery efficiency, AI-powered autonomous systems, and enhanced imaging sensors." The firm noted that the military segment accounted for the largest revenue share in 2024 and that "military drones are widely used by defense forces worldwide for investigation, intelligence gathering, surveillance, target acquisition, and combat operations." It also stated that the North American drone industry held over 39% market share in 2024 and that the U.S. drone industry was expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 13% from 2025 to 2030.

"The Chart Continues To Validate The Original Thesis"

In a January 21 report from John Newell of John Newell & Associates, he wrote that "Red Cat Holdings Inc.'s chart continues to validate the original thesis." He stated that "what started as a base-and-breakout setup has now evolved into a sustained uptrend with higher highs, higher lows, and repeatable pullbacks that respect key Fibonacci support."

Newell wrote that "all early targets have been met and exceeded, shifting the discussion from 'does it work?' to 'how far can this trend carry?'" He also stated that the "big picture target of US$6.50 was not only reached but exceeded decisively, confirming a structural change in the stock's behavior."

He further noted that "since breaking above US$6.50, RCAT has entered a more volatile but constructive phase," and wrote that "price has been working through a rising channel, with pullbacks consistently finding support near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement." According to Newell, "this is not the behavior of a stock topping out, but one building energy for another leg higher."

Newell also stated that "from here, the next upside objectives are clearly defined," adding that "initial resistance sits near US$22.50, followed by a higher target zone around US$23.25." He concluded that "the key technical takeaway is this: RCAT has transitioned from a breakout story into a trend-following name."

Operational Milestones Across Programs and Manufacturing

Teal Drones, a subsidiary of Red Cat Holdings that develops unmanned aircraft systems for military and law enforcement use, previously secured a milestone by winning the U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance program, which provides a rapidly deployed intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capability using a small unmanned aircraft system. The program was awarded on November 19, 2024, and a low-rate initial production contract was awarded on July 24, 2025. A full-rate initial production contract was listed as pending..

The company reported that inclusion of its Black Widow system in the NATO Support and Procurement Agency catalogue underscored readiness for allied missions, while procurement details such as quantities and delivery timelines are determined by end users through standard processes.

The company also reported a production facility expansion that doubled capacity during the third quarter of 2025, along with a leadership change during the same period that included the appointment of Mitch McDonald, who was described as having more than 15 years of manufacturing leadership experience.

Blue Ops partnered with Hodgdon Shipbuilding to produce the first five uncrewed surface vessel prototypes at facilities in the Boothbay Region and in Damariscotta, Maine. The shipbuilder will also serve as a research and development site to support continued iteration of mission-specific variants.

In addition, Blue Ops leased a 155,000 square foot manufacturing facility in Valdosta, Georgia, to support and scale full-rate manufacturing of its uncrewed surface vessels. The company stated the facility is intended to serve as a production hub.

Ownership and Share Structure¹

The ownership breakdown of Red Cat is 11.75% by eight strategic entities, 39.44% by more than 240 institutions, and the remainder by retail investors.

The largest shareholder overall is Red Cat CEO Jeffrey Thompson with 10.78%.

The company has 119.37 million shares outstanding, a market cap of US$1.1 billion, and a 52-week range of US$4.58–16.70 per share.