Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM:TSX; TFPM:NYSE) announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Triple Flag International Ltd., has agreed with Evolution Mining Limited to fund US$84.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2026 for the development of the gold-dominant E44 open pit deposit at Northparkes. Evolution committed to guaranteed minimum deliveries of 45,052 ounces of gold and 446,200 ounces of silver from the E44 Gold Deposit over the 2030 to 2037 period. Triple Flag stated that it congratulated Evolution on its approval of the block cave development of the E22 deposit at Northparkes and the commencement of a mill expansion study to evaluate a potential increase in processing capacity to 10 million tonnes per annum from the current 7.5 million tonnes per annum.
Under the E44 Amendment, Triple Flag International is entitled to purchase 20% of payable gold and 30% of payable silver from the E44 Gold Deposit for an ongoing payment of 10% of the spot gold and silver price for each ounce delivered. Triple Flag International also holds an existing 54% gold and 80% silver stream at Northparkes for the same ongoing payment rate. The company reported that the Existing Stream remains unaffected other than with respect to the E44 Gold Deposit. The E44 Gold Deposit is located approximately 21 kilometers from current mill infrastructure and mining areas.
Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO of Triple Flag, said in a company news release, "I am pleased that we have reached an agreement with Evolution to unlock the E44 Gold Deposit." He also said, "The gold potential of the Northparkes land package in this higher gold price environment is immense, and I congratulate Lawrie and the Evolution team for identifying the inherent value at E44."
Evolution Mining’s Managing Director and CEO, Lawrie Conway, said, "Today marks a major milestone for our Northparkes operation, where we have now established a pathway to unlock even more value."
Triple Flag reported that Evolution will advance the high-grade E44 gold open pit to production and that minimum guaranteed deliveries to the company from the E44 Gold Deposit will begin in 2030. Guaranteed deliveries will total 45,052 ounces of gold and 446,200 ounces of silver over the 2030 to 2037 period. Triple Flag stated that these deliveries are in excess of any deliveries otherwise due under the Existing Stream from areas other than the E44 Gold Deposit.
The company reported that the E44 Gold Deposit is a high-grade, advanced open pit gold project distinct from current operations at Northparkes, which is a copper-dominant mine with gold and silver byproducts. The E44 deposit contains an estimated 8.7 million tonnes grading 1.34 grams per tonne gold, with 0.38 million ounces in the measured and indicated category on a 100% basis. Triple Flag stated that these grades are significantly higher than the current proved and probable gold reserve grade at Northparkes of 0.28 grams per tonne gold.
According to the announcement, Evolution may elect to terminate its cumulative minimum delivery obligations under the E44 Stream for a cash payment of US$102.5 million if a positive construction decision for E44 is not made by December 31, 2029. In that event, Triple Flag would remain entitled to deliveries based solely on actual production from E44.
Triple Flag also noted significant exploration potential at E44, stating that drilling supports continuation of mineralization at depth and that development of E44 will create infrastructure in a highly prospective area for further drilling of surface gold and copper mineralization.
The announcement included additional information on Evolution’s E22 development and processing expansion study. Evolution plans to advance the E22 underground orebody as a block cave, which the company stated provides the basis for evaluating a potential mill expansion to 10 million tonnes per annum. Studies are underway at multiple underground and open pit deposits, including E44. Evolution expects economic and environmental studies for the mill expansion to be completed over the next two to three years and plans to target first cave production at E22 by the end of its fiscal 2030 year, followed by ramp-up to steady-state production.
Gold and Silver Pricing Volatility In 2026
According to a February 11 commentary from Chen Lin, "gold and silver took hits initially," but the market was "back to rally mode and gold is back to above 5000." He wrote that he had been "afraid the bitcoin crash could bring down the market and hit gold and silver," but added that "it looks like I was too conservative." Lin also discussed seasonal trends, stating that "seasonally the Chinese new year is the peak of physical demands and the peak of the gold seasonal cycle," while noting that in a bull market he had "seen this extended into spring." He expressed a concern specific to silver, writing that "high silver prices reduce industry demands on silver and silver will end up in the hands of speculators," adding that such behavior could "create another boom and bust cycle of silver." Lin wrote, "I'd rather silver stay below 100 and have another year of deficit."
A February 12 report from Excelsior Prosperity with Shad Marquitz described the environment as one in which resource investors were "feeling the sting of this recent lower PM market swing." Marquitz wrote that this volatility prompted "a dispassionate assessment of where we are at currently in the precious metals bull market." He discussed gold by stating that "central bank buying of gold continues on" and characterized gold as "the currency of last resort." He also examined silver, writing that "silver is a hybrid metal – part industrial and part precious," and that silver "will generally track the direction of gold over time." Marquitz noted that "silver tends to lag the move in gold and then play catch-up in an epic fashion" and wrote that "silver has tracked very similar patterns to that of gold" over long periods. He highlighted the scale of price swings, stating that silver’s trading had shown "obscene volatility," and described the gold price range as "a really wild revelation." Marquitz also observed that "we’ve already witnessed a few undeniably positive earnings reports" issued during bearish sector sentiment, which muted investor reactions. He added that "most participants following this sector are still bullish on silver in the medium-term to longer-term."
Stockhead provided industry commentary on February 13. Josh Chiat wrote that fund managers "still see fundamental support for elevated gold prices given constrained supply and growing demand." He quoted Steve Land of Franklin Equity Group, who said, "Despite the record declines, we still see fundamental support for elevated gold prices." Chiat reported that Land estimated gold miner valuations were trailing spot gold by 20%, stating that "the disconnect reflects investor perception rather than fundamentals."
Land added that "today, miners have stronger balance sheets, better capital discipline and higher shareholder returns," and wrote that at current prices "miners offer real operational leverage, with earnings and free cash flow climbing faster than the bullion price." Chiat also noted that gold was "paying US$4979/oz" and reported that silver had fallen "around 10% on Thursday to US$76.50/oz."
Day: "Triple Flag Sees Ninth Record Year"
According to a January 26 report from Adrian Day, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported preliminary results that were "again slightly below expectations." He wrote that the company was "at the high end of its guidance for the full year, with its ninth consecutive year of record GEOs (and of course record revenue)."
Day also noted that Triple Flag's major shareholder, Elliott Management, was selling 2.77 million shares in an arranged sale and stated that Elliott "does not have any specific plan or intention to … dispose of" additional shares. Day concluded his commentary with the rating "Hold." The report did not disclose formal target prices.
In a February 11 report from BMO Capital Markets, Rene Cartier wrote that Triple Flag and Evolution announced "a gold and silver stream agreement for the new gold-dominant E44 deposit." Cartier stated that the structure "contains guaranteed minimum deliveries of gold and silver over the 2030 to 2037 period" and added that "overall, we see the transaction as relatively NAV neutral with a base-case mid-single digit IRR on BMO metal price assumptions, though improved at spot."
The report also stated that "additional resources exist providing the potential for further upside" and that "a mill expansion study to increase processing capacity is also positive in the medium to longer term." Cartier wrote that Triple Flag was set to contribute "84.3M in Q4/26 for the development of the deposit" and that Evolution committed to "guaranteed minimum deliveries of 45,052oz of gold and 446,200oz of silver over the 2030 to 2037 period from E44."
Cartier noted that "triple flag is entitled to purchase 20% of payable gold and 30% of payable silver with ongoing payments of 10% of spot" and stated that "with the new stream, there are no associated step-downs." Cartier wrote that in the event a positive construction decision was not made by December 31, 2029, Evolution could elect to terminate its cumulative minimum delivery obligations for "a cash payment of 102.5M." He added that based on the minimum delivery requirements, "we estimate an IRR of 6.6% at BMO metal price assumptions, or 15.4% at spot."
Cartier also wrote that "with the conversion of additional M&I resources, we see an IRR in the high single digits at BMO metal price assumptions, and with a further improvement at spot as well." Cartier noted that Triple Flag detailed Evolution was set to advance E22 and was targeting "first cave production by the end of its fiscal 2030 year." The report included a rating of "Market Perform" with a stated target of "CA$60.00."
E44 Development, Scheduled Deliveries, and Northparkes Expansion Plans
The E44 Gold Deposit is scheduled to receive US$84.3 million in funding from Triple Flag International in the fourth quarter of 2026, as stated in the agreement with Evolution. Evolution plans to advance the high-grade E44 open pit to production, with guaranteed minimum deliveries of gold and silver beginning in 2030 and continuing through 2037. These cumulative minimum deliveries total 45,052 ounces of gold and 446,200 ounces of silver and are in excess of deliveries due under the Existing Stream from other areas of the Northparkes operation.
The E44 stream agreement provides for ongoing payments of 10% of the spot gold and silver price for each ounce delivered. In its investor materials, the company stated that deliveries under the E44 stream are excluded for the purpose of calculating step-down milestones under the Existing Stream. If Evolution does not make a positive construction decision for E44 by December 31, 2029, it may elect to terminate the cumulative minimum delivery obligations with a cash payment of US$102.5 million. In that case, Triple Flag would continue to receive deliveries based on actual production from E44.
Triple Flag reported that drilling at E44 supports continuation of mineralization at depth and that development of the deposit will provide infrastructure for further drilling in a prospective area containing surface gold and copper mineralization. The E44 resource estimate of 8.7 million tonnes grading 1.34 grams per tonne gold, containing 0.38 million ounces in the measured and indicated category on a 100% basis, was included in the announcement.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM:TSX;TFPM:NYSE)
Evolution’s separate development plans at the E22 deposit also contribute to upcoming milestones. Evolution approved the block cave development of E22 and commenced a mill expansion study evaluating a potential increase from the current processing capacity of 7.5 million tonnes per annum to 10 million tonnes per annum or more. Economic and environmental studies for the mill expansion are expected to be completed over the next two to three years. Evolution plans to target first cave production from E22 by the end of its fiscal year 2030 and subsequently ramp up to steady-state production.
Ownership and Share Structure1
Institutions own 89.78% of Triple Flag. Of those, Elliot Management Corporation owns the most with 64.79%. Management and Insiders hold 3.08%. The rest is retail.
Triple Flag has 206.53 million outstanding shares, a market cap of CA$7.4 billion, and a 52-week range of CA$16.26 - CA$40.29.
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- As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Triple Flag.
- James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
- This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.
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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information
The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.
