Copper prices surged to new highs in December

Copper prices surged to new highs in December, with support from improved global growth forecasts, strong demand from the United States and China, and persistent supply challenges. The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange reached US$11,872 per ton, approaching the symbolic US$12,000 mark and extending a rally that has gained over 34% year to date.

The momentum followed a revised US economic growth forecast, with the Federal Reserve raising its 2026 projection from 1.8% to 2.3%. According to ANZ’s Daniel Hynes in a December 12 write-up, “The combination of lower interest rates and stronger economic growth should boost copper demand.” He noted that traders remained concerned about potential US tariffs on refined copper, which continued to prompt metal inflows into the United States and tighten international availability.

The trend was further accelerated by China’s reaffirmed commitment to proactive fiscal policies. On December 8, Cofco Futures Co. analyst Xu Wanqiu commented that “Copper will benefit from policy support toward power-grid upgrades, computing power. The momentum remains very bullish.” The Chinese government’s economic approach has been interpreted by analysts as a significant lift to industrial metals, especially as China remains the world’s largest consumer of copper.

Citic Securities analysts added that global refined copper supplies could fall short by as much as 450,000 tons in 2026 due to stockpiling and disruptions. They stated that prices would need to average above US$12,000 per ton in 2026 to incentivize new mining capacity.

Tight Supply and Strategic Stockpiling Contribute to Copper Deficit

Morgan Stanley provided further context in a December 8 research note, estimating a 590,000-ton copper deficit for 2026. The firm attributed the widening shortfall to continued demand from energy storage systems and data centers, despite softening in some Chinese end-use sectors. It maintained a 2026 base case forecast of US$10,650 per ton, with a bullish scenario reaching US$12,780. The note also acknowledged potential downside risk if the United States were to definitively abandon tariff proposals on refined copper, which could release previously accumulated supply into the market.

Additional support for elevated prices has come from production setbacks at major global mining operations. Disruptions at several sites and lowered output guidance from producers have tightened the copper concentrate market. ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote that “Most base metals are likely to remain well supported next year,” and pointed to US-bound refined copper flows as a factor that may continue constraining supply elsewhere. They projected copper would average US$11,500 per ton in 2026, peaking at US$12,000 in the second quarter.

Chile’s national copper commission, Cochilco, raised its 2026 price forecast from US$4.30 per pound to US$4.55 per pound, reinforcing the sector’s expectation of sustained upward pressure. ANZ economists also suggested China would likely maintain a 5% GDP growth target in 2026, a goal supported by robust export performance and domestic infrastructure investments.

The multi-faceted supply and demand picture has pushed copper to levels not seen before, underscoring the metal’s continued importance in global industrial and technological development. While uncertainties remain, especially regarding trade policy, analysts across institutions have cited strong economic indicators and supply risks as primary contributors to copper’s current strength.

With copper prices reaching historic highs and market fundamentals pointing to continued tightness, a number of companies operating in the sector may be positioned to benefit from the current environment. These include producers with existing output, developers advancing near-term projects, and explorers focused on high-potential jurisdictions. As the supply-demand imbalance persists and investment interest grows, companies with exposure to copper through diversified portfolios or strategic development plans are likely to remain in focus for industry observers.

Stillwater Critical Minerals Corp. 

Stillwater Critical Minerals Corp. (PGE:TSX.V; PGEZF:OTCQB; J0G:FSE) is advancing a large-scale, multi-metal resource in Montana that includes a significant copper component, positioning the company within the growing conversation around U.S. critical mineral security and copper supply constraints. Its flagship Stillwater West project hosts nickel, cobalt, and platinum group elements, but copper remains a key part of both the existing resource estimate and future development focus. 

The most recent NI 43‑101 compliant resource estimate for Stillwater West included 1.6 billion pounds of nickel, copper, and cobalt combined, along with 3.8 million ounces of platinum, palladium, rhodium, and gold. The company is currently updating this estimate to incorporate results from recent drill campaigns, which included broad intervals of nickel equivalent mineralization with meaningful copper content. Stillwater has modeled over 20 kilometers of mineralized strike length, further defining its copper-bearing zones.

Couloir Capital issued a research note on October 6 with  a Buy rating and raising its fair value estimate from CA$0.45 to CA$0.93 per share. The firm introduced a probability-weighted valuation framework and specifically cited the company’s mix of battery and precious metals as a key value driver. Couloir stated that the Stillwater West project offered “a compelling opportunity to help close the U.S. critical mineral supply gap,” with copper included among the 10 U.S.-designated critical minerals targeted by the company.

In an October 7 report, Red Cloud Securities mining analyst Taylor Combaluzier reiterated an earlier Buy rating and CA$1.20 target, describing Stillwater as a “one-stop shop” for U.S. critical minerals. He emphasized the company’s presence in a well-established mining jurisdiction and the potential to “significantly expand the current about 1,800,000,000 pounds of nickel equivalent resource base,” which includes copper. He also highlighted U.S. government grant support, existing infrastructure, and technical leadership as competitive advantages.

Stillwater’s copper exposure is further supported by strategic backing from Glencore, which holds a 15% stake in the company and has contributed CA$1.4 million as part of a larger 2025 financing. Glencore also participates in the Stillwater West Technical Committee, which provides input on project advancement. The partnership includes an option for Glencore to increase its investment by an additional US$7.8 million, reinforcing long-term interest in the project’s copper and broader critical mineral potential.

Located in Montana’s Stillwater Igneous Complex, the Stillwater West project is adjacent to operating mines and benefits from strong infrastructure access. Drill results from earlier in 2025 included long intercepts with internal zones of higher-grade nickel equivalent mineralization, with copper contributing to the overall metal values. One example, hole CM2023‑05, returned 294 meters grading 0.24% nickel equivalent, including 52.1 meters at 0.55% and 4.8 meters at 1.36%.

¹Management and insiders own approximately 17% of Stillwater, according to the company, and high-net-worth investors own about 23%

Executive Chairman and Director Gregory Shawn Johnson owns 2.86%, President and CEO Michael Victor Rowley owns 2.56%, Independent Director Gregor John Hamilton owns 1.65%, Independent Director Gordon L. Toll owns 0.44%, and Vice President of Exploration Daniel F. Grobler owns 0.23%, according to Reuters.   

Institutions own approximately 30% of the company, and Glencore Canada Corp. owns 15%. About 15% of the company's shares are in retail.

There are about 272 million shares outstanding with 212 million free float trading shares, while the company has a market cap of CA$106 million and trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.0900 - CA$0.60. 

Sun Summit Minerals

Sun Summit Minerals Corp. (SMN:TSX.V; SMREF:OTCQB) is advancing exploration at its JD Project in British Columbia’s Toodoggone District, a region known for both high-grade epithermal gold systems and porphyry-style copper-gold mineralization. In late October 2025, the company reported one of its most significant copper results to date: surface sampling returned grades as high as 73.6% copper and 6,320 grams per tonne silver from a newly discovered zone south of the main Finn to Creek corridor. A second sample from the same area yielded 72.4% copper with 4,370 grams per tonne silver.

The discovery was made through hand trenching of gossanous soils at a target known as A535, an area with no prior rock or soil sampling. According to the company, semi-massive to massive copper sulfides were exposed in a subcropping vein over a length of five meters. The strike extent of the zone remains unknown, but further trenching and prospecting is planned. The company indicated that this copper-silver target is now a priority for follow-up exploration and drill testing.

These results were part of a larger geological mapping and prospecting program conducted over a 20-day period in 2025, during which more than 650 rock samples were collected across the 15,000-hectare JD property. On November 3, Couloir Capital highlighted the copper-silver mineralization, stating that the new data “outline multiple new targets and support follow-up drilling and resource expansion work across the district-scale land package.” The program also included sampling across other zones with porphyry potential, including the JD porphyry trend and McClair East.

The JD Project is located in a region that previously supported copper production at the Kemess open-pit mine and remains the focus of advanced-stage development by other operators. Sun Summit’s proximity to past-producing and active exploration assets provides logistical advantages, including access to roads and the Kemess hydroelectric corridor. The company’s copper-bearing zones occur within a broader geological setting that supports both epithermal and porphyry-style systems.

While the company’s 2025 drill campaign concentrated on expanding the Creek Zone’s gold footprint, porphyry copper-gold targets such as Belle South and the JD porphyry trend remain key elements of its longer-term exploration plans. The Belle North area, for example, returned additional copper values up to 3.6% in surface sampling, along with elevated silver and gold content. Although not yet drill-tested, the Belle North corridor has been designated as a priority for future programs.

Sun Summit has also reported that 532 rock samples from its 2025 field program remain pending, many from the JD porphyry trend and adjacent copper-prospective areas. In parallel, results are pending from the company’s 6,864-meter drill program, including core from two holes at Belle South. According to management, these datasets will help refine the 3D geological model and inform future copper exploration across the property.