Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE:NYSE) agreed to acquire New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT) in a $7 billion all-stock transaction, reported Joe Reagor, managing director and senior research analyst at ROTH Capital Partners, in a Nov. 4 research note. The deal is expected to close near the end of Q1/26.
"The acquisition appears accretive to near-term multiples but both of New Gold's mines have relatively short mine lives," Reagor wrote. "The ultimate impact of the acquisition may be difficult to judge until many years from now."
32% Return Implied
Because ROTH views this transaction as one strongly focused on the near term but with questions remaining about the long term, the investment banking firm maintained its Buy rating and $20 per share target price on Coeur, noted the analyst.
In comparison, the Illinois-based gold and silver producer was priced at about $15.14 per share at the time of Reagor's report. From there, the return to target is 32%.
The company has 642.22 million shares outstanding. With the acquisition, New Gold shareholders are to receive 0.4959 of a Coeur share for every New Gold share.
Coeur's market cap is $11B. Its 52-week range is $4.81–23.10 per share.
Near Term-Focused Deal
Reagor pointed out similarities between the pending Coeur-New Gold acquisition and the past Coeur-SilverCrest Metals Inc. acquisition (February of this year). SilverCrest had one asset with a short mine life but with obvious expansion potential. New Gold has two assets, each with strong near-term production followed by periods of lower production, a relatively short mine life and significant potential for mine life extension. Despite the potential, the future of New Gold's projects is unknown.
Also, the assets in both acquisitions were/are materially accretive with respect to near-term metrics like free cash flow per share, noted Reagor.
"Given the uncertainty of timing and shareholder approval required, we are excluding this [acquisition] from our forward estimates for now," added the analyst.
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