Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE:NYSE), a midsize U.S. precious metals producer, agreed to acquire New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT), a Canadian intermediate gold and copper miner, in an all stock deal valued at US$7 billion (US$7B) based on Coeur's closing price on October 31, it was announced in a news release. The transaction is due to close in H1/26, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
"Together, Coeur and New Gold will become a free cash machine," Chen Lin wrote in What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? on November 4. "I am intrigued. I see it will potentially create an attractive target for big gold funds and index funds."
Under the terms of the agreement, New Gold shareholders are to receive 0.4959 of a Coeur share for each New Gold share, implying consideration of US$8.51 per New Gold common share. New Gold shareholders would benefit from an immediate and significant premium of about 16% to the October 31 closing price. Post transaction, existing Coeur shareholders and New Gold shareholders will own about 62% and 38% of the combined company's outstanding common stock, respectively.
The merging of New Gold into Coeur will create a new, 100% North American senior miner. It will bring together New Gold's New Afton gold-copper project in British Columbia and its Rainy River gold project in Ontario, and Coeur's five producing projects plus one exploration-stage asset in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. From these assets next year, the combined company will produce an estimated 20,000,000 ounces of silver, 900,000 ounces of gold, and 100,000,000 pounds of copper.
"Importantly, over 80% of future revenues are anticipated to be generated from U.S. and Canadian sales, consolidating risk and operational focus within stable jurisdictions," wrote Noble Capital Markets in a November 3 report.
The combined company will have an estimated market cap of US$20B. Lin put this into context, explaining that this amount is almost half of Barrick Mining Corp.'s (ABX:TSX; B:NYSE) US$60B market cap and close to Kinross Gold Corp.'s (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE) US$28B market cap.
The acquisition should boost margins and lower overall costs for the new company, resulting in a forecasted US$3B in EBITDA and US$2B in free cash flow (FCF) in 2026. These figures represent a 200% and 264% increase over Coeur's expected US$1B in EBITDA and US$550 million (US$550M) in FCF, in full-year 2025 (FY25), respectively.
"These figures highlight the strategic rationale underpinning the deal: lowering costs per ounce, boosting margins and achieving scale advantages, all while enhancing the combined company's ability to access investment-grade credit ratings and return capital to shareholders," wrote Noble.
The newco's net cash position at the transaction close and a quickly expanding cash balance will allow the new entity to invest in high-return, organic growth opportunities, such as at New Afton's K zone, at Rainy River, and throughout Coeur's portfolio.
"Together, we will be a cash flow powerhouse, leaping above larger peers, with significant exploration upside and the potential to significantly extend mine life and grow net asset value per share," New Gold President, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Director Patrick Godin said in the release.
The combined company will be among the Top 10 largest precious metals companies and the Top 5 largest silver producers globally. This larger scale should provide investors with significantly enhanced daily trading liquidity of more than US$380M and potentially should allow the newco to be included in major U.S. indexes.
Upon the acquisition's closing, several members of New Gold's management team are expected to join Coeur. As well, New Gold's Godin and another current director will join Coeur's board.
Coeur Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Mitchell Krebs said this in the release, "This transaction helps accelerate Coeur's ongoing repositioning as a larger, more resilient, lower-cost and lower-risk company."
Both Coeur and New Gold's boards approved the acquisition and recommended that their respective companies' shareholders vote in favor of the transaction.
Co. Appears 'Strategically Mature'
Headquartered in Chicago, Ill., Coeur has three producing assets in the U.S.: the Rochester silver-gold mine in Nevada, the Kensington gold mine in Alaska, and the Wharf gold mine in South Dakota.
In Mexico, the company's mining operations are the Las Chispas silver-gold mine in Sonora and the Palmarejo gold-silver complex in Chihuahua. Also, Coeur owns Silvertip, an exploration-stage polymetallic project in British Columbia.
"Together, Coeur and New Gold will become a free cash machine," Chen Lin wrote in What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling?
"Coeur has good diversification with production from mines situated across the Americas," wrote Kevin O'Halloran, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, in an October 29 research report.
In-line earnings and accelerating free cash flow were the highlights of Coeur's recently reported Q3/25 earnings, noted O'Halloran, who noted the miner is undergoing an FCF inflection. Also, Coeur's Q3/25 was solid operationally, Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst Mike Kozak reported in an October 30 research note.
For the first time in a few years, Coeur "looks strategically mature" and is "now showing improved financial stability and operational discipline," wrote CAN Analyst, an independent equity trader and licensed financial adviser, in an October 15 article for Seeking Alpha. The miner's debt level is low; it is investing about US$90M per year in exploration, projects are generating cash flow, and management initiated a share buyback program.
Gold, Silver to Run Further
The precious metals have been having a rally for the record books. Up 57% year to date (YTD), the spot gold price reached US$4,381/oz last month. Spot silver, up 66% YTD, touched US$54.47/oz, also in October.
"This historic rally, unfolding throughout the year, signifies a profound shift in investor sentiment, driven by a complex interplay of persistent inflation, looming recession fears, and an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape," WRAL News' MarketMinute wrote on Nov. 4. "The unprecedented valuations underscore a growing global appetite for safe haven assets."
Morgan Stanley attributed the surge in gold this year to geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of rate cuts, central bank purchases, and strong gold-backed, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, Reuters reported on October 31.
As for what is ahead for the precious metals, the remainder of 2025 and beyond "appears robust, albeit with potential short-term volatility," MarketMinute wrote. "The current environment strongly suggests that the precious metals bull market is in its early to mid-stages, with significant upside potential."
Based on fundamentals, both the gold and silver markets are projected to keep expanding through at least 2030, according to Fortune Business Insights and Market Research Future, respectively.
O'Halloran, in his report days before the acquisition announcement, reiterated his Outperform rating on Coeur. He raised his target price. From CDE's November 4 closing price, the return to the new target is 66%.
Morgan Stanley told Reuters the gold price could climb to US$4,500/oz by mid-2026 and reach an average of US$5,055/oz by Q4/26.
Uncertain economic outlook, continued buying of gold-backed ETFs, declining interest rates, steady gold purchasing by central banks, and the stabilization of jewelry demand will continue to support the price.
Downside risks, Morgan Stanley pointed out, include the potential for price volatility that could propel investors to move into other asset classes or central banks to opt to decrease their gold reserves.
On the higher end of gold price forecasts for next year, Bank of America predicts gold will hit US$5,000/oz, and Goldman Sachs sees US$4,900/oz by December 2026. Citi Research's more conservative estimate is US$3,250/oz gold next year.
As for silver, it has outperformed gold since May, Red Cloud Securities reported in its Q4/25 Commodity Price Update on October 20. The global mining investment bank expects the silver price to keep pace with the gold price, and therefore, it recently raised its silver price estimates. For Q4/25 and 2026, it now expects US$50/oz, up from its forecasts of US$30 in Q4/25 and US$29.50/oz in 2026. For 2027, Red Cloud is now targeting US$46.75/oz, a jump from US$29.50 before. For the long term, Red Cloud predicts US$40/oz silver, a price US$12 higher than its prior estimate.
The Catalysts
Potential catalysts expected by year-end 2025 include Coeur achieving its long-term goal of zero net debt:EBITDA and doing so ahead of schedule, and its projects exceeding US$1B of FY25 EBITDA, Seeking Alpha reported in its October 30 Earnings Call Insights.
"Management expects a strong finish for 2025 and 'a record year in 2026,' Seeking Alpha noted.
Another possible near-term catalyst, as reported by O'Halloran, is exploration results on an ongoing basis, particularly from Silvertip, Kensington, and Palmarejo.
Further Upside Remains
In a November 4 research report, Joe Reagor, managing director and senior research analyst at ROTH Capital Partners, likened Coeur's pending acquisition of New Gold to Coeur's acquisition of SilverCrest Metals Inc. in February. Like SilverCrest, which had one asset with a relatively short mine life, New Gold has two mines, each with a relatively short mine life, though there does seem to be potential to extend the mine lives. In both deals, Coeur acquired assets that were significantly accretive on near-term metrics, such as FCF/share. As such, the Coeur-New Gold acquisition likely will yield near-term benefits, but the ultimate impact of the transaction may be difficult to quantify until many years in the future, the analyst wrote.
"Given our outlook that this is a strong, near-term-focused acquisition but with long-term questions," Reagor maintained his Buy rating on Coeur and his current price target, implying a 45% uplift from the miner's November 4 closing price.
O'Halloran, in his report days before the acquisition announcement, reiterated his Outperform rating on Coeur. He raised his target price. From CDE's November 4 closing price, the return to the new target is 66%.
"We expect the shares to trade at improved multiples as cash flows increase and leverage decreases," the analyst wrote.
Similarly, in his October 30 report, Kozak boosted his target price by 31% after incorporating Coeur's Q3/25 results into his model. The updated target implies a 16% return from CDE's November 4 closing price.
"Following a +208% rally year to date, we currently regard CDE shares as fully/fairly valued and are therefore downgrading our rating from Buy to Hold," he added.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*CAN Analyst also wrote that Coeur is fairly valued.
"Coeur today is an example of when a mid-sized mining company can break out from [its] constant capital deficit and become a player," he wrote. "I rate CDE Buy for those seeking to play the silver cycle but caution that it's best suited for investors comfortable with volatility and market timing."
Ownership and Share Structure1
Insiders own about 1%, institutions hold about 18% and retail investors own the rest of Coeur Mining. The Top 3 shareholders overall are Van Eck Associates Corp. with 10.27%, The Vanguard Group Inc. with 9.79% and BlackRock Institutional Trust Co. N.A. with 7.3%.
The U.S.-based precious metals producer has 642.22 million outstanding shares. Its market cap is US$9.7B. Its 52-week range is US$4.58–23.62 per share.
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- As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Barrick Mining Corp.
- Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
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1Ownership and Share Structure Information
The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.
