Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ) received a conditional Notice to Proceed for its Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho, from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), reported Mike Niehuser, managing director and senior research analyst at ROTH Capital Partners, in a Sept. 21 research note. ROTH raised its target price on the junior mining company by about 10% given high confidence that full construction at the project will start and will do so next year.
"[The] dominoes to construction are falling," Niehuser wrote.
15% Return Potential
ROTH's new target price on Perpetua is $21 per share, up from $19 previously, noted the analyst. In comparison, the company was trading at the time of Niehuser's report at about $18.31 per share. From this price, the return to target is 15%.
Perpetua remains a Buy.
It has 107.57 million shares outstanding, a market cap of $1.87 billion ($1.87B) and a 52-week range of $8.03–19.20 per share.
Next Step: Bond Payment
The Notice to Proceed indicates that Perpetua met all of the requirements outlined in the USFS' Final Record of Decision issued in January 2025. Now, the company must post a $155 million ($155M) bond as part of the financial assurance package upon which the involved state and federal agencies agreed. Along with the USFS, they are the Idaho Department of Lands and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Once Perpetua provides the bond, the USFS will sign the company's Plan of Operation, thereby allowing construction to begin.
"It appears that Perpetua has more than sufficient liquidity to post the bond," Niehuser wrote.
In the next few weeks, the explorer-developer should soon complete a royalty or streaming arrangement for $200–250M, enough to cover the amount.
Financing Recap
As for other financing, to cover estimated construction costs of $2.2B, Niehuser noted that Perpetua expects to receive $2B in debt financing from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), given that EXIM provided a term sheet to balance the construction budget in H1/26. Additionally, Perpetua closed an upsized equity financing of $474M in mid-July.
The company continues moving forward at Stibnite. For instance, it selected an engineering, procurement and construction contractor and locked in procurement contracts, which "should provide confidence for cost containment with increasing demand due to a rising gold price." Perpetua is prepared to start early construction work, "leading up to improving weather conditions and closing the EXIM financing in H2/26."
With this timeline, production could commence at Stibnite in 2029, noted Niehuser.
Governmental Support
The analyst reiterated that federal and state governments consider Stibnite a project of import, for contributing to national defense, creating jobs and restoring fish habitat. The project received $80M in grants from the U.S. Department of Defense and was put on the federal list of FAST-41 Transparency Projects.
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