Swiss Metals and Mining Co. Posts Another Half-Year Net Loss

Glencore Plc's (GLEN:LSE; GLN:JSE) H1/25 results generally were lackluster, but there was a standout among them. The company is tackling the problems head on to get back in both the market and investors' good graces.

"We continue to see strong upside to shareholder returns over the medium term," Barclays Analyst Ian Rossouw wrote in an Aug. 7 research report. "However, the key focus for [the] market will likely be whether management can deliver operational targets over coming years."

Headquartered in Baar, Switzerland, Glencore is a commodities producer and trader with three segments: metals and minerals (copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead and ferroalloys), energy products (oil, gas and coal) and agricultural products.

Recap of Results

H1/25 revenue was US$117.4 billion (US$117.4B), about the same as it was in H1/24, according to Glencore's 2025 Half-Year Report. All adjusted EBITDA figures, overall, industrial and marketing, were down year over year (YOY). Overall was 14% lower at US$5.4B, and industrial was down 17% at US$3.8B, both due to low coal (thermal and steelmaking) prices and reduced copper output, the company noted. Marketing was 8% lower at US$1.4B.

Adjusted EBITDA mining margins were 24% in metals, 18% in coal and 35% in steelmaking coal. The metals and coal figures, however, both were lower than at the same time last year, reported Bloomberg's Thomas Biesheuvel on Aug. 5.

Glencore's net loss in H1/25 was US$655 million (US$655M), or US$0.05 per share, according to the company.

Collectively, these half-year results are "weak," described Christopher LaFemina, equity analyst with Jefferies, in an Aug. 6 research report. Glencore's H1/25 copper production was 26% lower YOY, and copper costs were higher than anticipated, both drivers of the disappointing overall earnings. Another negative in the H1/25 update was the lack of announced upcoming catalysts.

Rossouw pointed out that Glencore's net debt in H1/25 was US$14.5B, 5% more than Barclays' estimate and due to higher capitalized leases, higher cash interest and higher cash tax.

The mining and metals company's underlying earnings of US$0.5B, or US$0.05 per share, beat BMO Capital Markets' estimate of US$0.03 per share on slightly lower depreciation and taxes, noted Analyst Alexander Pearce in an Aug. 6 report. Also of note, zinc was Glencore's outperforming metal in H1/25 with an EBITDA of US$0.9B. This result was 11% higher than BMO's projection and attributed to stronger performance at the company's Australian operations.

According to Barclays and BMO, Glencore's overall adjusted EBITDA was in line with their expectations, and they want to see better performance from the company in H2/25.

After Glencore announced its H1/25 results, its shares fell almost 4%, earning it a spot among the FTSE 100 companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) with the biggest drops, reported Proactive Investors in an Aug. 6 report.

The company had entertained moving its primary listing to a U.S. exchange from London to boost its valuation but since abandoned the idea, at least for now, because doing so would not be value accretive, Glencore announced with its H1/25 results, Biesheuvel reported.

"[It was] a gloomy update overall from Glencore," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, according to Proactive Investors.

Since the start of 2025, Glencore's stock retreated about 18%, wrote Biesheuvel. The company has posted four six-month losses in a row.

Metals Trading is Highlight

Glencore H1/25 earnings from metals trading was an all-time high; adjusted EBIT was US$1.57B, reported Bloomberg's Jack Farchy and Thomas Biesheuvel on Aug. 6.

"The results highlight the differing fortunes of the two markets," the authors wrote.

To achieve this record, Glencore traders capitalized on the copper price arbitrage resulting from U.S. President Donald Trump's looming tariff on the metal. Further, tight markets for semi-processed concentrates and ascending gold and silver prices inflated trading profits.

In contrast, Glencore's trading of oil, gas and coal in H1/25 delivered an 88% lower YOY, adjusted EBIT of US$40M. This was the unit's weakest performance since 2010, and according to Ben Davis, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, "alarming." Geopolitical events around the globe whipsawing these markets and depressed coal prices were to blame, according to Farchy and Biesheuvel.

Turnaround Plan

Moving forward, Glencore intends to slash costs by US$1B by year-end 2026, half by the end of this year, Pearce reported. About 76% of cuts, to headcount, energy, consumables, contractors, maintenance and administration, will be done at the industrial asset level. The goal is to reduce costs by 37% in the new zinc/nickel division, by 26% in coal and by 24% in copper.                                                                                                                                   

Biesheuvel reported that Glencore upgraded its long-term trading profits goal and announced a buyback. According to a SmartInsider report, the company repurchased 3 million (3M) shares £2.88 apiece on Aug. 6.

"Glencore may well now have to channel more of its capital into improving the balance sheet rather than being able to reward shareholders as generously as it has in the past," Russ Mould at AJ Bell told Proactive Investors.

Also, Glencore expects to produce 47–52% more copper in H2/25 than in H1/25 on the back of higher grades at KCC and Mutanda in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Collahuasi in Chile, and Antamina and Antapaccay in Peru, reported LaFemina. Achieving production guidance also would require sharply reducing copper unit costs in H2/25. The miner expects to boost production sequentially in zinc, nickel and met coal, too.

Roussouw pointed out that such a half-year-over-half-year increase would be unprecedented for Glencore given its largest boost to production in a six-month period was 35%, in 2013.

"[The company] really needs to deliver these efficiencies and this improvement in output to get the market back on side," Mould added.

Jefferies expects met coal prices to recover, resulting in increased free cash flow for Glencore and in turn, leading to a step up in capital returns, LaFemina wrote.

"The point here is that EBITDA could increase by more than 30% from H1/25 to H2/25 if current spot prices (forward curves for coal) hold and the company does not significantly miss on its operational targets," the analyst added.

Supply Challenged, Demand Rising

Among its various metals, Glencore produces the most copper. The market for the red metal is characterized by increasing imbalances and emerging constraints on one hand and growing demand on the other, noted Ryan Charles in an Aug. 10 Crux Investor article. Forecasts are for a supply surplus of about 280,000 tons in 2025 and 209,000 tons in 2026, but "these headline numbers mask significant structural challenges."

For example, just this week, Cochilco, Chile's state copper commission, announced a 50% cut to its estimate for 2025 copper production growth, taking it to 1.5% from the 3% it estimated in May, reported Mining Weekly on Aug. 13. The reduction is due to a decline in June production at Glencore and Anglo American Plc's (AAUK:OTCQX; AAL:LSE) Collahuasi mine and BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (BHP:NYSE; BHPLF:OTCPK) Escondida mine.

Also, suspended mining operations at Codelco, due to the deadly tunnel collapse on July 31, will reduce the mine's output by about 30,000 metric tons per month, reported Mining.com on Aug. 7. With this temporary closure comes "significant risk of supply disruption," Cochilco said.

UBS wrote in a recent report that copper's fundamentals signal that the market will remain in a deficit in 2025 and 2026, given strong underlying demand exceeding available supply, reported Investing.com on Aug. 11.

Demand for copper, the material with the largest established market, is projected to grow 30% by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. The greatest demand is for use in electric vehicle batteries and energy storage. Expanding construction and the electrification of grids and industrial equipment are additional growth drivers. By 2035, the IEA wrote, the expected mined supply from announced projects will not meet demand, and the deficit could be as much as 30%.

In the interim, between 2025 and 2030, the global copper market is forecasted to expand at a 6.5% compound annual growth rate, reaching US$339.95B in size, according to Research and Markets. Its new report indicates that rising demand for construction, renewable energy and electric vehicles in emerging economies as well as global demand for electrification, smart grids and battery storage systems will continue to fuel market growth.

Given the current market dynamics, UBS said it expects any copper price pullbacks to be "shallow" and present buying opportunities for investors, reported Investing.com. As such, the financial services firm, maintaining its positive outlook on copper, expects prices to reach and stay above US$10,500 per metric ton, or US$4.75 per pound (US$4.75/lb) by mid-2026.

Longforecast.com has copper reaching US$3.98/lb by the end of this year, ending 2027 up at US$4.73/lb and ending 2028 even higher at US$5.43/lb.

Value Exists, Needs Unlocking

BMO's Pearce has an Outperform rating on Glencore and a target price implying 27% return from the share price at Aug. 13's market close.

"Looking ahead, expectations of a stronger H2/25 for production should see improved momentum into year-end," the analyst wrote.

In response to Glencore's H1/25 results, Jefferies' LaFemina maintained his Buy recommendation on the company but lowered his target by £30. His revised target offers 18% uplift. The analyst opined that Glencore potentially could achieve a rerating by listing its coal and ferroalloys business separately. Such a restructuring would make the original company an attractive merger or acquisition target for majors. 

"We estimate a sum-of-the-parts value for Glencore of 446p per share and believe a restructuring or breakup could be a path to unlock this value," LaFemina wrote.

Barclays' Rossouw reiterated his target price on Glencore. From the company's Aug. 13 closing share price, the return to target is 40%.

"We remain overweight," the analyst wrote, "given our positive medium-term outlook on the steelmaking coal market, while we think thermal coal is well supported at current levels for the foreseeable future."

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Refinitiv, nine strategic entities own 11.17% of Glencore. The No. 1 shareholder is the company's former chief executive officer Ivan Glasenberg with 10.24%.

Numerous institutions own 51.57%. The Top 3 are Qatar Holding LLC with 8.79%, Black Rock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. with 7.51% and Capital Research Global Investors with 4.94%.

Glencore has 11.9 billion (11.9B) outstanding shares and 10.6B free float traded shares. Its market cap is £47.4B. Its 52-week range is £205–438.80 per share.