Bitcoin's Bull Run: ETFs and Treasury Buys Propel Growth

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In a July 2 research note, Digital Assets Analyst Geoff Kendrick predicted Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in the second half of the year, driven by increased flows from ETFs and corporate treasuries, as well as favorable developments in U.S. policy and regulation.

Enhanced investor participation has shifted Bitcoin's market behavior, moving away from the historical trend where prices typically dropped 18 months post-halving cycle — a pattern that would have suggested declines around September-October 2025, Kendrick noted. In the second quarter, Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury acquisitions amounted to 245,000 BTC, and Kendrick said he expected these figures to rise further in the third and fourth quarters.

U.S. developments could also bolster price increases in the third quarter, especially with potential shifts such as President Donald Trump possibly announcing an early replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill.

"These developments, along with further evidence of broader sovereign interest, should push Bitcoin to a new all-time high of around US$135,000 in Q3," the analyst wrote.

Looking ahead to Q4, attention will turn to Bitcoin's halving cycle. The most recent halving event, which reduced the reward for mining new blocks by half, occurred in April 2024. Historically, BTC prices have dipped about 18 months following a halving.

While there might be some price volatility in late Q3 and early Q4 due to concerns about this historical pattern, Kendrick said he expected the upward price trend to continue, supported by robust ETF and Bitcoin treasury purchases — factors that were not present in previous cycles. We are maintaining our year-end price forecast for Bitcoin at US$200,000.

Reporting for Bitcoin.com on July 6, author Jamie Redman also predicted an upward trend.

"Traders on leading prediction markets are placing increasingly bullish bets that bitcoin will achieve record highs by the end of 2025, with overwhelming odds favoring a surge past US$120,000," the report said.

The bulk of trader expectations clustered firmly between the US$120,000 and US$150,000 range, the piece noted. The concentration highlights a market sentiment that is "cautiously optimistic yet increasingly confident in substantial upside potential."

"The overwhelming conviction in prices far exceeding current levels, coupled with minimal bets on a major crash, paints a strikingly optimistic picture for Bitcoin's trajectory through 2025," Redman wrote. "These prediction markets serve as a powerful barometer of informed sentiment, pointing towards a potentially explosive year for the flagship cryptocurrency."

Digital Gold?

Some investors say the way they are looking at Bitcoin is changing, according to a report by Justin Lin for The Australian published Monday on Stockhead.

Bitcoin is increasingly being compared to gold, Lin wrote.

"This isn't to say the digital asset has entirely shaken off its volatility or proved its role as a reliable store of value. It hasn't, not yet," Lin wrote. "But there is growing evidence that investors, particularly institutional ones, are beginning to treat it less like a speculative token and more like a strategic asset. That change in perception may be just as significant as any price movement."

Price changes are expected to be noteworthy. Lin reported that Global X ETFs predicted Bitcoin could hit US$200,000 in the next year. As of Thursday, it was trading at US$109,323, marking an 82% increase over the past year.

Bitcoin's evolution into what some call "digital gold" has been long championed by its staunchest advocates. They've argued that it mirrors gold, which is a non-sovereign, liquid asset that has preserved its value through the ages. Gold owes allegiance to no country and is immune to the economic missteps that can affect fiat currencies.

Bitcoin shares several of these attributes. It is not controlled by any government, its value cannot be diluted through monetary policy, and its total supply is capped at 21 million units. In theory, it should serve similar purposes as gold, acting as a safeguard against uncertainty and providing stability in investment portfolios during times when traditional assets are volatile, Lin wrote.

However, until recently, this theory remained more of a hopeful notion. Bitcoin's dramatic price fluctuations, the lack of clear regulatory frameworks, and cycles of speculative trading have historically kept it at the margins of mainstream asset allocation strategies.

Its historical correlation with growth assets, particularly volatile tech stocks, has also made it an unreliable option for risk mitigation, Lin noted. Often, Bitcoin's value would drop alongside equities during market downturns, challenging its reputation as a "safe haven."

Yet, a series of recent developments is beginning to change this narrative, blurring the lines between Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets.

"Institutional adoption is gaining momentum," Lin wrote. "The launch and rapid uptake of bitcoin exchange-traded funds offers a gateway for large investors to access the asset with less friction."

Standard Chartered also said it expected Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the second half of 2025, driven by rising ETF flows, corporate buying, potential Fed rate cuts, and a U.S. stablecoin bill.

"The bank forecasts Bitcoin to hit US$135,000 in Q3 and US$200,000 by year-end," the firm said in another note. "Bitcoin last traded up 1.7% at US$107,790."

Increasing Institutional Interest Creating 'Solid Foundation' for Crypto

Over the last quarter, net inflows into bitcoin ETFs have surged past US$11 billion, marking a significant shift from earlier in the year when the sector saw predominantly outflows. This change indicates that major investors are starting to approach Bitcoin with the same rigor and strategic planning as they do with established asset classes, Lin noted for The Australian.

As institutional players enter the market, their presence often mitigates volatility. Trading becomes more grounded, price discovery improves, and the investor demographic stabilizes. This stabilization could be Bitcoin's most crucial development yet.

The author wrote that gold's value lies not just in its rarity or historical significance, but also in the market's trust in its consistent performance. Investors flock to gold because they trust that others will also turn to it in turbulent times. This trust, built over many years, becomes self-reinforcing. Bitcoin has not yet achieved this level of confidence, but the increasing involvement of institutional investors is creating a solid foundation.

In addition to institutional interest, political re-engagement with cryptocurrency is also providing momentum. The GENIUS Act, the bipartisan U.S. bill designed to establish guidelines for stablecoins, is marking a significant move towards regulatory clarity. This legislation suggests that lawmakers are starting to see the digital asset sector as something to be regulated in a constructive manner rather than something to be stifled.

House Republicans are now contemplating a more expansive approach toward crypto, Jasper Goodman reported for Politico on Tuesday. They are preparing for a comprehensive "crypto week" to present their case when House members reconvene next Monday. They plan to vote on the Senate's stablecoin bill along with a broader "market structure" proposal. This proposal seeks to revamp the rules governing securities and commodities that affect cryptocurrency trading.

The main challenge for House Republicans lies in the lack of support from Trump and Senate Republicans for amending the stablecoin bill or using it as a springboard for broader crypto policy changes, Goodman noted.

Trump has expressed his desire for a "clean" version of the bill to be passed "lightning fast," and key GOP senators have indicated they will not consider a market structure overhaul until September. Senate Republicans have also noted the difficulty in gaining enough Democratic support to pass a modified stablecoin bill.

"For me to get eight or nine Democrats to vote for something here is extraordinarily difficult to do," stated Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), the primary sponsor of the Senate stablecoin bill, or GENIUS Act.

Several companies offer exposure to the sector with their stocks, including the following.

Mogo Inc.

Financial technology firm Mogo Finance Technology (MOGO:NASDAQ; MOGO:TSX) operates across three main sectors: wealth management, lending, and payments.

The company said its core mission is to equip consumers with cutting-edge financial tools that promote sustained financial well-being and prosperity. The company said it has adopted a unique strategy in each division, utilizing technology, behavioral science, and innovative financial instruments to offer distinct value in target markets.

The company, on July 2, announced its Board of Directors had approved an investment of up to US$50 million in Bitcoin. Mogo said it has been a pioneer in digital asset innovation for nearly a decade. It introduced Canada's first Bitcoin account in 2018 and in 2020, became the third U.S.-listed company to include Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Mogo also significantly contributed to the creation of Canada's largest independent crypto platform through the 2023 merger of Coinsquare and WonderFi, which is set to be acquired by Robinhood.

"Drawing from our extensive experience in cryptocurrency, we are making a strategic, long-term commitment to Bitcoin, supported by a strong belief in its value and the ability to establish a significant Bitcoin reserve that aligns with our capital priorities and market outlook," President and Co-founder Greg Feller said. "This allocation allows us to gradually build a substantial position as part of a carefully planned, multi-year strategy."

Following the expected completion of the WonderFi–Robinhood transaction in the latter half of 2025, Mogo anticipates holding around CA$50 million in cash and investments. The Board has sanctioned a Bitcoin investment of up to CA$50 million, which will be financed using surplus cash from the balance sheet. The company aims to progressively reach a CA$50 million investment in Bitcoin while maintaining sufficient working capital for business operations.

In a significant move that integrates Bitcoin deeply into its corporate structure, Mogo said it will now evaluate all capital allocation decisions against a Bitcoin benchmark. Whether it's for mergers and acquisitions, internal investments, or share buybacks, the Company will commit capital only to ventures that are expected to surpass the long-term returns of Bitcoin holdings.

"This establishes a new standard for capital discipline," Feller said. "If we are not convinced that a project will yield greater long-term value than Bitcoin, we simply will not proceed. It's that straightforward."

According to TipRanks, at least one Wall Street analyst offers a 12-month price target for the stock of CA$5.43, a nearly 100% change from its last price at time of writing.

A report published by TipRanks' "Auto-Generated Intelligence Newsdesk" on July 3 said Scott Buck of H.C. Wainwright has reiterated his Buy rating for the stock. Buck's valuation of MOGO shares was CA$4.

Refinitiv noted that about 16% of the company is owned by insiders and management and about 16% by institutions. The rest is retail.

Top investors include Michael Anthony Wekerle with 7.51%, Tidal Investments LLC with 5.44%, Amplify Investments LLC with 5.24%, David Feller with 4.22%, and Marine Wealth Advisors with 3.74%.

Its market cap is CA$73.29 million with 24.47 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$1.09 and CA$5.19.

Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd.

Hong Kong-based Metalpha Technology Holding Ltd. (MATH:NASDAQ; D92:FSE) has successfully completed a reorganization aimed at strengthening its foothold in the digital asset wealth management industry.

Founded in 2021, Metalpha is known for providing customized investment solutions to institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. This move comes on the heels of the company's rebranding from Dragon Victory International and a restructuring effort in partnership with Antalpha Technologies.

"The crypto industry continues to have room for growth, despite its challenges this year," Metalpha founder and Chief Executive Officer Adrian Wang said. "We are looking very closely at how to build a stronger and healthier global market for digital assets, which we are doing together with our partners, such as Antalpha, and many others."

Metalpha, which operates outside the mainland China region, is focused on enhancing its product offerings and trading functionalities for its clients. The company also plans to increase its workforce at its Hong Kong headquarters in the future. MATH expressed its commitment to "providing digital asset-focused wealth management services with a full-service, institutional-grade platform."

The company boasts dedicated blockchain expertise and aims to lead in digital asset-focused wealth management, offering significant innovation and transparency to its clients and the industry.

Writing for Money Morning on June 18, Joshua Enomoto noted that MATH recently experienced a significant drop in equity value.

"But in fairness, MATH has also gained almost 163% year-to-date, implying that this is a solid enterprise facing temporary hardships," he said. Price Target Research on June 5 gave the stock a "C" rating but highlighted the company's "very high profitability (and) high expected growth."

According to Refinitiv, approximately 11% of the company is owned by insiders and management, about 25% by strategic corporate entities, and 11% by institutions, with the remainder held by retail investors. Major shareholders include Antalpha with 15.31%, KBR Fund Management Ltd. with 10.46%, Folius Ventures LLC with 9.95%, Bingzhong Wang with 3.13%, and Limin Liu with 3.04%. The company's market cap stands at US$136.23 million with 38.37 million shares outstanding. It trades within a 52-week range of US$0.80 to US$4.17.

HIVE Digital Technologies

HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE:TSX.V; HIVE:NASDAQ), which is at the forefront of constructing and managing state-of-the-art data centers worldwide, said it specializes in everything from Bitcoin to high-performance computing (HPC).

The company said it is shaping the future by fueling the world's most revolutionary technologies, including AI, with sustainable, eco-friendly energy.

Established in 2017, HIVE develops and maintains blockchain and AI infrastructure that is driven by renewable hydroelectric power. And has operations spanning Canada, Sweden, and Paraguay.

Last month, the company released its financial results for the full year ending March 31, including total revenue of US$115.3 million from digital currency mining and high-performance computing hosting services. Its digital currency mining revenue was US$105.2 million, down 5.2% year-over-year due mainly to the April 2024 Bitcoin Halving.

The company's net income for the fiscal year was a net loss of US$3 million, and its adjusted EBITDA was US$56.2 million or 48.7% of total revenue.

HIVE's total digital currency assets were valued at US$181.1 million at the end of the year, including 2,201 Bitcoin, the company said.

According to a report for MSN.com by Insider Monkey's Ali Hassan, HIVE is one of the 10 Most Undervalued AI Stocks to Buy According to Analysts.

The company's revenue jumped as AI cloud earnings almost tripled, the locals said.

HIVE recently announced the purchase of a facility with a total installed capacity of 7.2 megawatts in Toronto to support its HBC infrastructure. This facility will accelerate the development of a sovereign Canadian AI ecosystem through HIVE's BUZZ HPC business.

According to Refinitiv, about 0.33% of the company is owned by insiders and management and about 16.7% by institutions. The rest is retail.

The top shareholders are Tidal Investments LLC with 2.33%, Vident Investment Advisory LLC, 1.36%, Vident Asset Management with 1.24%, State Street Global Advisors with1%, and MMCAP Asset Management with 0.94%.

Its market cap is US$610.52 million, and it has 199.19 shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$1.80 and US$7.75.