Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ) owns a gold-antimony project in Idaho of critical importance to the United States and continues moving it toward production.
"Stibnite represents a significant opportunity to restore a domestic supply chain of this critical mineral, essential to U.S. national security, the energy industries and advanced technologies, given that China stopped antimony exports to the States last December," Mike Niehuser, managing director and senior research analyst, ROTH Capital Partners, wrote in a May 14 research report.
Most recently, U.S.-based Perpetua formally applied to the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) for up to $2 billion ($2B) in debt financing for Stibnite following up on EXIM's letter of interest last year. When Perpetua submitted the application recently, it just had received its final federal approval needed for Stibnite, the Clean Water Act Section 404 permit, from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Unique Selling Points
Here we report what various analysts and other experts find compelling about Perpetua.
Niehuser is optimistic Perpetua will receive EXIM financing and, thus, can and will make a positive construction decision, by midyear in his estimation. He expects EXIM will approve the full amount of debt financing Perpetua applied for and the terms will be better than those possible with conventional financing, he wrote in a May 23 research report.
His view is based on Stibnite's forecasted economics and its alignment with the Trump Administration's priority to develop a domestic supply chain of critical minerals and, thereby, reduce reliance on ex-U.S. sources, particularly China. He also wrote that Perpetua may have nondilutive public and private financing available as well to help cover capex but if not, should be able to get conventional equity after EXIM agrees to financing.
"EXIM financing would lead to a higher valuation [of Perpetua]," wrote Niehuser.
Also favorable, the analyst noted in his May 14 report, is that other U.S. companies support developing a domestic antimony supply chain. United States Antimony Corp. (UAMY:NYSE.American) has said it can produce 99.7% pure antimony trisulfide from Stibnite's antimony concentrate. Another U.S. company, Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining, is evaluating whether and how it could refine the same.
"We believe both [companies] have the potential to process concentrate from the Stibnite gold project," Niehuser wrote.
The analyst rates Perpetua Buy and has a target price on it suggesting a 33% uplift from the current share price.
Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst Mike Kozak likes that Stibnite could be "shovel ready" in less than a year's time, he wrote in his May 23 research report. Perpetua has two pending state permits that it expects to receive soon. As for the financing timeline, the analyst estimated, once EXIM completes due diligence, it will issue Perpetua a formal "preliminary project letter," in 45–60 days, or early to mid-July. The financing then would be finalized in late 2025-early 2026.
Kozak has a Buy rating on Perpetua. His target price, which he said "has a clear bias to the upside," implies a 54% return.
Brian Hicks of Wealth Daily lauds Perpetua for not being a typical miner and Stibnite for not being a usual mining project. With Stibnite, Perpetua will produce an estimated 120,000,000 pounds of military-grade antimony and 4,800,000 ounces of gold, he noted in a May 1 article.
"Present calculations indicate Stibnite's aggregate mineral worth surpasses $16B, using contemporary valuations," Hicks wrote.
The U.S. desperately needs antimony, and Perpetua has it at Stibnite. Currently, there is no antimony production in the States. Antimony is a designated critical mineral in the county as it relies on antimony trisulfide for use in various munitions and weapons systems. In fact, during World War II, Stibnite supplied about 90% of U.S. demand for these applications, noted Hicks. Without antimony, and thus without Stibnite, today's U.S. defense faces increased expenses, supply constraints and "precarious dependencies affecting anti-armor projectiles, batteries and semiconductor, and missile propulsion systems."
"Simply stated, antimony represents necessity, not preference," he added.
Along with antimony and gold production, Perpetua also will undertake environmental remediation in Idaho's Valley County. Its efforts, outlined in its approved mine plan, encompass restoration of salmon corridors obstructed since the 1940s, elimination of toxic waste and habitat rehabilitation in line with modern day protocols. Recently, noted Hicks, Idaho's Nez Perce Tribe began discussions with Perpetua about collaborating.
"This transcends traditional extraction approaches," Hicks wrote. "This represents extraction amid geopolitical considerations and ecological responsibility, potentially America's initial genuinely modern, multipurpose mining endeavor."
H.C. Wainwright & Co. Analyst Heiko Ihle appreciates the importance of Stibnite to the U.S. and presented proof of its strategic value.
"We remain confident in Perpetua and stress that the company remains a key player in securing a domestic critical mineral supply of antimony through the advancement and further derisking of Stibnite," Ihle wrote in his May 13 research report.
Last month, the National Energy Dominance Council selected Stibnite as a "Transparency Project," one of the first 10 chosen for placement on the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council dashboard. This means Stibnite is to get increased interagency transparency, coordination and oversight, which, purported Ihle, should provide "immense value in the near, intermediate and longer term."
Prior events validating Stibnite include various grants from the U.S. Department of Defense, EXIM's letter of interest and the U.S. Forest Service's positive record of decision.
"We maintain our view that Stibnite should receive more attention from lawmakers, policymakers and potential financiers as [additional] milestones are reached, given the current gaps in the domestic supply chain for antimony," commented Ihle.
He has a Buy rating on Perpetua and a target price suggesting a 93% potential return.
National Bank of Canada Analyst Michael Parkin recognizes Perpetua's value. He purported the company warrants a higher valuation given "the positive factors linked to Stibnite", he wrote in a January research report. These include exposure to the critical mineral antimony, strong governmental support and EXIM's letter of interest. A rerating of PPTA shares is likely, he noted.
Parkin has a target price on Perpetua indicating 54% upside. He rates the company Outperform.
Sector "Under Severe Stress"
In the U.S., antimony has not been mined since 2001, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and at year-end 2024, the county had 60,000 tons of the mineral in reserve, USGS data show. In comparison, last year the nation consumed 24,000 tons of antimony.
Elsewhere in the world, the main known antimony resources are in Australia, Bolivia, Burma, China, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Tajikistan. Last year, the Top 3 producers were China, Tajikistan and Russia.
"Ninety percent of global Sb production comes from countries with which the USA cannot easily trade," Red Cloud Securities analysts wrote in a Q2/25 Commodity Price Update in April.
The global antimony market is "under severe stress," RFC Ambrian Head of Research David Bird wrote in a February report on the mineral. This mostly is due to a paucity of ore and concentrate supply but also China's export controls limiting the availability of refined products. Further, due to the world's lack of mining projects that recover antimony, not much new mined supply is expected to coming online. At the same time, demand for antimony has been rising from the solar industry, for its use in photovoltaic (PV) glass.
"This weak supply outlook, combined with the growing consumption in the PV market, suggests that the antimony market could remain in deficit for an extended period," Bird wrote.
The antimony price has stayed range-bound at about $15,000 per ton ($15K/ton) for the last 15 years, Red Cloud reported, but it doubled between June and September of 2024.
Bird noted the price reached almost $43K/ton in January 2025, more than quadruple what it was a year earlier. He attributed it to the ongoing reductions in Chinese production "due to domestic industry rationalization" and the fluctuating levels of imported antimony ore and concentrates.
Red Cloud analysts forecasted $32K/ton antimony for the rest of 2025 and $25K/ton antimony in 2026 and 2027.
"We expect future production from mines such as Perpetua Resources Corp.'s Stibnite project in Idaho to raise supply and eventually bring prices down to a long-term level of $15K/ton," they added.
Ownership and Share Structure
According to Refinitiv, insiders, including members of the executive team and board, own a total of 0.89% of Perpetua Resources.
Numerous institutional investors collectively hold 47.33%. The Top 3 are Paulson & Co. Inc. with 34.75%, Encompass Capital Advisors Inc. with 5.03%, Sprott Asset Management LP with 4.89%, Sun Valley Gold LLC with 4.16% and Sprott Asset Management USA Inc. with 3.38%.
The rest is in retail.
Perpetua has 71.29 million (71.29M) outstanding shares and 70.65M free float traded shares. Its market cap is CA$983.38 million. Its 52-week range is CA$6.85–21.18.
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