Lending Innovator Outpaces Market Trends in United States

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The quoted article represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund's opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund's opinions on the market and stocks cannot be  only be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

High interest rates and prices have sidelined many would-be homebuyers in recent years, but better days may finally be ahead for many of them.

According to a Bloomberg report, sales of previously owned homes fell to their lowest level since 1995 last year.

However, U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs are pushing the stock market down on fears of slower growth and a recession, which has also been pushing mortgage rates lower. According to a report by Shaina Mishkin for Barron's on April 4, National Association of Realtors' Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the average rate on Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Affairs loans is headed below 6%. Freddie Mac data show the 30-year fixed rate dropping nearly half a percentage point to a recent 6.64%, she reported.

"The (stock market) decline could cause well-off homebuyers who have significant portions of their portfolio in stocks to the hit the brakes," she wrote. "A falling stock market can cut into consumer confidence and home demand, particularly in the high end of the market, Barron's previously reported. But it could be a boon for buyers with mortgage rates than stocks."

Possibly adding headwinds in the industry, online mortgage provider Rocket Cos. announced it is acquiring Mr. Cooper Group Inc. in a US$9.4 billion all-stock deal that will "create a mortgage behemoth that handles one in every six mortgages in the U.S.," Paige Smith reported in the Bloomberg article on March 31.

The combined company will service a book of US$2.1 trillion of loans and nearly 10 million clients, according to a statement Monday.

According to Molly Grace writing for Business Insider on April 2, the acquisition "may ultimately be good news for borrowers."

"Mr. Cooper is one of the largest mortgage servicers in the country, but it ranks low in customer satisfaction on J.D. Power's 2024 Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Study, and some customers have complained about the company's servicing," noted Grace. "Rocket Mortgage, on the other hand, ranks high in both servicing and origination, according to J.D. Power."

The company does have "many positive customer reviews online and offers lower-than-average mortgage rates," she said. "But this lender only offers a handful of loan types, and you can't explore its rates online. Its average fees are also on the high end."

Some Buyers Will 'Pounce' on Rates

According to Mishkin with Barron's, mortgage rates are headed even lower, as the 10-year Treasury yield, an indicator of where mortgage rates are heading, recently saw its greatest one-week decline since August, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

"We are likely to get the mortgage rate relief we've been hoping for, but in a more dramatic fashion that we prefer, and with more negative knock-on effects to the markets and economy at large," Realtor.com Senior Economist Joel Berner said, according to Barron's.

Lower mortgage rates could be a green light for first-time buyers who feel secure in their jobs and have been saving up a down payment separate from the stock market. Those buyers "are going to pounce on [lower mortgage rates] as an opportunity possibly to buy in a market where they can find value," Ivy Zelman, executive vice president of real estate research firm Zelman & Associates, told Mishkin.

Higher-end buyers and first timers could both pull back if the "macroeconomic picture deteriorates or job losses ramp up," Mishkin wrote.

"If consumers are shaky and they are not feeling good about their personal wallets, they are going to be hesitant on spending," Zelman said. "If they don't have a job, they are definitely not spending."

Mishki said more will be clear on Wednesday when the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases its weekly measure of home loan purchase applications.

But the MBA has reported that the total U.S. mortgage originations for 2024 are expected to reach US$1.79 trillion, up from US$1.64 trillion in 2023 — a year that saw a 32% decline from 2022. Its forecasting a 29% increase in originations for 2025, with volumes projected to hit US$2.3 trillion — welcome news for mortgage originators.

Beeling Holdings Inc.

One originator set to help consumers take advantage of the rates is Beeline Holdings Inc. (BLNE:NASDAQ), which just announced that its 2024 loan origination volume of just under US$200 million "outpaced the broader industry by around 30%," which was up 9%.

Beeline said it launched in the second half of 2020 and ended its first full year of operations in 2021 with US$7.8 million in revenue. Shortly after, interest rates began rising in October 2021, kicking off the current mortgage downturn and driving industry revenues to 30-year lows, excluding the 2008 crisis, the company said.

"Despite macro headwinds, Beeline's revenue grew 33.5% in 2024 compared to 2023," the company said in the release.

"Our timing wasn't ideal, but we've built the company to withstand volatility," Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Nick Liuzza said. "We caught a favorable market to close out 2021, but like the rest of the industry, we were hit by rising rates. The difference is — we didn't slow down. We kept building software, expanded our product suite, and diversified our lending capabilities. Now, we're positioned to move quickly. With rates coming down last week, our timing as a public company seems to be excellent."

Beeline said MBA's baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2025 at about 5.9%. The company said it "anticipates strong market conditions over the next several years and is poised for accelerated growth through 2027."

Beeline Loans was founded in 2019 to make home-buying fun rather than grueling and drawn out, according to its website. "We remove the traditional loan BS and shorten the path to your financial happy place," it reads.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund rated Beeline as an Immediate Strong Buy.

With its proprietary technology and AI, combined with its "loan guide" assistance, Beeline provides homeowners and property investors a shorter, faster and easier home loan application process. Applicants can do all the steps online directly on their mobile devices and get "approvals more reliably than traditional pre-approvals, sometimes in as little as 15 minutes, and a rate lock in one session."

Beeline offers a variety of options, including refinancing, to consumers through its digital platform. It has built its premise on making homeownership more accessible to a wider, more diverse market, making it an attractive prospect if mortgage rates continue to fall.

Company Has 'Bright Future'

According to Technical Analyst Clive Maund on February 27, Beeline "should have a bright future" since there will still be mortgage transactions, "even in a bleak economic environment or in a housing downturn."

The company recently "closed a US$5 million funding, with over half of the capital coming directly from the CEO of the company, which is a vote of confidence if ever there was one," Maund wrote on February 27. "This is why a big bullish candle appeared on the stock chart on massive volume on the 19th. This news followed the news out a week earlier" of Beeline's partnership with vacation property management and rental company RedAwning.

A run of "bullish long-tailed candles" and two "dragonfly dojis" on Beeline's recent chart show the lows of a small double bottom, Maund said.

"The second of these was a really big one on huge volume, which appeared following the news of the completion of the funding, and it clearly has bullish implications," Maund said.

*Technical Analyst Clive Maund reached out to Streetwise with an update on April 8. He rated Beeline as an Immediate Strong Buy and shared the following price targets:

• First price target: US$5.70-US$6.20
• Second price target: US$8.30-US$8.50

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Refinitiv, about 28.41% of Beeline Holdings is owned by insiders and management and 0.15% is held by institutions. The rest is retail.

Top shareholders include the CEO Liuzza with 26.08%, Joseph Freedman with 1.19%, Head of Investor Relations Geoffery Gwin with 0.88%, Robert Grammen with 0.17%, and Elizabeth Levy-Navarro with 0.05%.

Its market cap is US$12.26 million with 7.2 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$1.43 and US$29.80.