US$3.65B Gold-Antimony Project in Idaho Moves Closer to Construction

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Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ) filed its Annual Report for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, highlighting continued progress toward developing the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho. The company reported a number of regulatory, operational, and financial milestones, including a US Forest Service Final Record of Decision in January 2025 and a US$33.6 million equity financing completed in November 2024. According to the company's financial update, the project is projected to have one of the lowest all-in sustaining costs (AISC) in the industry, estimated at US$435 per ounce for the first four years of production, with life-of-mine (LOM) AISC averaging US$756 per ounce.

Perpetua's strategic objective is to provide a domestic source of the critical mineral antimony — used in clean energy storage and national defense applications — while also developing one of the largest open-pit gold reserves in the United States. The Stibnite Gold Project contains an estimated 4.8 million ounces of gold and 148 million pounds of antimony in Proven and Probable reserves, based on a US$1,600 per ounce gold price and US$3.50 per pound antimony price (significantly lower than current prices). Under updated pricing assumptions (US$2,900/oz gold, US$21/lb antimony), the project's after-tax net present value (NPV) at a 5% discount rate is US$3.65 billion, which represents a 346% upside to Perpetua's current market cap of US$817.81 million. 

Perpetua received an indication of up to US$1.8 billion in potential financing from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (U.S. EXIM), which remains non-binding and subject to underwriting and final approvals. The company was also awarded up to US$75 million under the Defense Production Act through the Department of Defense Ordnance Technology Consortium (DOTC) and other programs to support permitting, engineering, and antimony research. 

President and CEO Jon Cherry stated in the announcement, "Perpetua Resources started 2025 with strong momentum after achieving significant permitting milestones and advancing the Stibnite Gold Project towards a construction decision with the support of government funding."

The company reported no lost time incidents or environmental spills in 2024 and published its eleventh annual sustainability report. Additionally, agreements with Sunshine Silver and U.S. Antimony were announced in December to advance a domestic supply chain for antimony. Basic engineering for the project was completed in early 2025, and procurement activities have begun, including a power infrastructure contract with Idaho Power. Perpetua continues to advance construction readiness as it looks to wrap up the remaining ancillary permits needed in the first half of 2025.

Surging Gold Prices Drive Renewed Focus on Mining Stocks

According to an Energy and Capital report on March 15, gold hit an all-time high of US$3,017 per ounce before pulling back. The report noted that while investors have been anticipating this milestone, concerns remain about potential volatility, as seen in previous gold price spikes. The report suggested that while some investors may reconsider their exposure at record highs, demand for gold remains strong, with silver emerging as an alternative investment.

On March 16, 321Gold discussed technical projections for gold, with expectations of continued price momentum. The report highlighted a wave structure analysis indicating potential upside targets for gold and gold miners. It noted that as gold prices rise, miners could experience significant breakouts, with technical indicators pointing to further strength in the sector.

On March 21, Heiko Ihle of H.C. Wainwright & Co. reiterated a Buy rating on Perpetua Resources and increased the firm's price target to US$28, up from US$25.

Stockhead reported on March 18 that gold reached a new record high, surpassing US$3,000 per ounce. The report noted that geopolitical tensions contributed to market uncertainty, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. This rise supported gains in gold equities, with increased institutional interest in the sector.

According to Kitco, on March 18, institutional capital was flowing into gold stocks as investors reacted to economic uncertainty and concerns over inflation. The report drew parallels to the 1970s stagflation era when institutional money rotated into gold mining stocks while broader equity markets declined. It suggested that as economic pressures mount, gold miners could see further upside, supported by increased investor demand and favorable technical trends.

Analysts Highlight Strategic Importance and Upside Potential for Perpetua Resources

On March 13, Mike Niehuser, managing director and senior research analyst at ROTH Capital Partners, issued a research report maintaining a Buy rating on Perpetua Resources and reaffirming a 12-month price target of US$19 per share. At the time of the report, the company's share price was approximately US$9.22, implying a 106% return potential.

Niehuser stated, "This reflects our optimism for favorable financing terms from EXIM, the potential availability of additional sources of funding to balance the budget and additional exploration, adding resources which extend mine life and result in more robust project economics."

Niehuser emphasized that the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) represented the most advantageous source of debt financing for Perpetua's Stibnite Gold Project. "We view financing by EXIM to be the optimal source of debt financing," he wrote, citing the potential for more favorable terms compared to conventional funding options. He noted that while EXIM had previously indicated up to US$1.8 billion in financing in 2024, the company has since updated its capital expenditure estimate to US$2.215 billion, accounting for inflation and other project refinements.

ROTH Capital Partners expressed confidence in the project's financing prospects under current U.S. administration policies supporting domestic critical mineral production. Niehuser wrote that "EXIM will expedite the application" based on recent executive orders related to national energy policy and critical mineral security. He also reiterated the strategic importance of Perpetua's antimony resource, particularly in light of supply constraints from China. "The antimony supply in the U.S. and globally is in a growing deficit," he explained, positioning the Stibnite project as a critical asset in the national interest.

According to the report, Perpetua intended to submit its formal debt financing application to EXIM within weeks, with a decision expected within 45 days of submission. Niehuser projected that the company could secure financing by mid-2025 and potentially move into construction later in the year.

On March 21, Heiko Ihle of H.C. Wainwright & Co. reiterated a Buy rating on Perpetua Resources and increased the firm's price target to US$28, up from US$25. Ihle explained, "Our overall DCF analysis results in a valuation of US$1.97 billion, or US$26.95 per share," and noted that after accounting for cash, exploration assets, and debt, the net asset value per share rounded to US$28. He pointed to increased grant income, higher exploration expenditures, and growing institutional interest as positive developments. Ihle concluded, "We anticipate continued interest from institutional investors as the domestic antimony supply remains quite scarce while Stibnite continues to get more and more de-risked."

Perpetua Resources Catalysts and Strategic Outlook

In its investor presentation, Perpetua Resources anticipates several near-term milestones in 2025 that could further position the Stibnite Gold Project for construction. These include securing remaining ancillary permits and formalizing project financing in the first half of the year. A construction decision is expected to follow within 2025, with operations projected to begin by 2028. The company has emphasized that the project will reprocess and safely store legacy tailings, re-establish fish migration, and implement long-term environmental restoration measures.

The project is designed to yield an average of 463,000 ounces of gold annually over the first four years and 296,000 ounces annually over the 15-year mine life. Financial modeling suggests an after-tax payback period of 2.2 years under spot price assumptions, with average annual EBITDA of US$1.37 billion during early operations.

Perpetua also highlighted its supply agreement with energy storage firm Ambri, which, once in production, could supply antimony sufficient to support over 13 GWh of grid-scale energy storage. The company views this agreement as a step toward integrating mining with clean energy infrastructure, pending completion of permitting and production milestones.

With a gold grade of 1.43 grams per tonne and a low strip ratio, Stibnite is positioned in the upper tier of undeveloped U.S. gold assets. The project benefits from access to low-cost hydroelectric power, community and political support in Idaho, and significant by-product credits from antimony, reducing gold production costs.

Perpetua's management team, led by CEO Jon Cherry, brings decades of experience in permitting and project development. The company remains focused on executing its construction readiness plans while working to deliver what it describes as a "national strategic asset" capable of supporting both domestic supply chain resilience and long-term environmental reclamation.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Refinitiv, management and insiders own approximately 0.50% of Perpetua, and institutions own about 63.52%.

Top institutional shareholders include Paulson & Co at 35.30%, Sun Valley Gold LLC with 4.23%, Sprott Asset Management LP with 3.98%, Kopernik Global Investors LLC with 3.60%,  and Sprott Asset Management USA Inc at 3.16% reported by Refinitiv.

Of insiders, Chief Financial Officer Jessica Marie Largent owns 0.14%, former President and CEO Laurel Sayer owns 0.13%, and Director Chris Robinson owns 0.09%.

Refinitiv reports that there are 73 million shares outstanding and 64.19 million free float traded shares. The company has a market cap of US$807 million and trades in a 52-week range between US$3.78 to US$13.23.