A Blistering CPI Has Sent Stocks (And Gold) Reeling
Contributed Opinion

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This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

USD index futures are up 0.52% to 108.395, with the 10-year yield up 1.74% to 4.616% and the 30-year up 1.74% to 4.772%.

Gold (-1.10%), silver (-2.04%), oil (-1.13%), and copper (-0.21%) are all lower.

Stock futures are mixed with the DJIA (-0.85%) down 380.5 points, the S&P 500 (-0.84%) is down 51.0 points but the NASDAQ (+0.12%) is up 26.25 points.

Risk barometer Bitcoin is down 1.96% to $94,986.

CPI (8:30 am EST)

Expectations are for consumer prices to have risen by 0.3% versus 0.4% the month before with YOY CPI up 2.8% versus 2.9% in the prior period.

Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%.

Any surprises to either the upside or downside in these numbers will have an impact on markets and volatility.

SPY:US

The U.S. equity markets have been rangebound for most of 2025 with the $610 level for the SPY:US (6,100 on the SPX) as major resistance. Today might be classified as "Make or Break Day" for the markets on a near-term basis as this rising wedge is going to be resolved very soon.

A breakdown below the 20-dma and 50-dma lines at $601.25 and $598.01 will be a downside exit from the wedge, while an upside breakout through $607.5 will spell a retest of the highs.

Flash Update

The CPI came in much hotter than expected at 0.5% — the highest CPI reading since April 2022.

All the associated numbers were also hotter, and as expected, equities are getting pounded, with the S&P futures now off 65 points.

The VIX:US is up 1.00 to 18.00 and the UVIX:US is called up $1.19 to $29.69 bid.