African Gold Co.'s Production Results Show Trending Improvement
Research Report

1. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company. 

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for National Bank of Canada, Allied Gold Corp., January 22, 2025

RISKS: Jurisdictional volatility: Mali has witnessed several military coups and has recently adopted a new mining code through which government shall seek additional stake in mining projects. Ethiopia has had many unproven mine development projects, though in our view government support seems to be fairly strong towards mining. De-risking resources: Most recent resources are reported in line with JORC Code requirements, though expected to comply with NI 43-101 standards shortly pending the publication of updated technical reports. Development risk: As with all development projects, Allied is subject to construction/development delays at Kurmuk. Inflation: Across the sector, inflation and supply chain delays have added pressure to developer capex and project timelines, though recent data shows inflation exhibiting a moderating trend. ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES Allied Gold Corp. 2, 3, 5, 7, 347 B2Gold Corp. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 320 Endeavour Mining plc LEGEND FOR COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES: 2 National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months. 3 National Bank Financial Inc. has provided investment banking services for this issuer within the past 12 months. 4 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months. 5 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months. 6 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has a non-investment banking services related relationship during the past 12 months. 7 The issuer is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within the past 12 months. 8 National Bank Financial Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the next 3 months. 9 As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days after the end of the most recent month), National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of this issuer. 10 National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of this issuer, at the time of this report publication. 11 A partner, director, officer or research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months provided services to this issuer for remuneration other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services. 12 A research analyst, associate or any other person (or a member of their household) directly involved in preparing this report has a financial interest in the securities of this issuer. 13 A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of National Bank Financial Inc., is an officer, director, employee of, or serves in any advisory capacity to the issuer. 14 A member of the Board of Directors of National Bank Financial Inc. is also a member of the Board of Directors or is an officer of this issuer. 15 A redacted draft version of this report has been shown to the issuer for fact checking purposes and changes may have been made to the report before publication. 347 An NBF analyst attended a tour of Allied Gold’s Kurmuk Project in Ethiopia on Dec. 3, 2024. A portion of the analyst's expenses were paid by the issuer. 320 An NBF Analyst attended a tour of B2Gold’s Goose Project in the Back River Gold District in Nunavut on Sept. 19, 2024. A portion of the expenses were paid by the issuer.

DISCLOSURES GENERAL: This Report was prepared by National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), a Canadian investment dealer, a dealer member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and may be subject to change without notice. The information is current as of the date of this document. Neither the author nor NBF assumes any obligation to update the information or advise on further developments relating to the topics or securities discussed. The opinions expressed are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein, and nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances. In all cases, investors should conduct their own investigation and analysis of such information before taking or omitting to take any action in relation to securities or markets that are analyzed in this report. The report alone is not intended to form the basis for an investment decision, or to replace any due diligence or analytical work required by you or your advisers, if needed, in making an investment decision. The value of investments, and the income derived from them, can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount invested. Neither past performance nor forecasts are a reliable guide to future performance. If an investment is denominated in a foreign currency, rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of the investment. Investments which are illiquid may be difficult to sell or realize; it may also be difficult to obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risks to which they are exposed. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, swaps, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. NBF makes no representation as to the proper characterization of the investments for legal, regulatory or tax purposes, or as to the ability of a particular investor to invest or transact in the investments under applicable legal restrictions. Differences in the legal and regulatory regimes in different jurisdictions may significantly impact the legal and regulatory risks affecting the investment sector and / or investment. It is your responsibility to assess any such differences and associated risks. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This report is not directed at you if NBF or any affiliate distributing this report is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. National Bank of Canada Financial Markets is a trade name used by National Bank Financial Inc. and National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. CANADIAN RESIDENTS: NBF or its affiliates may engage in any trading strategies described herein for their own account or on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients and, as market conditions change, may amend or change investment strategy including full and complete divestment. The trading interests of NBF and its affiliates may also be contrary to any opinions expressed in this report. NBF or its affiliates often act as financial advisor, agent, lender or underwriter or provides trading related services for certain issuers mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. UK RESIDENTS: This report is a marketing document. This report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. The report is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers and this report is not for distribution to retail clients (within the meaning of the rules of the FCA). Persons who are retail clients should not act or rely upon the information in this report. As required by the FCA, we have a policy in place to identify and manage the conflicts of interest which may arise in the production of non-independent research as contained and distributed in this report. In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, NBF has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). NBF is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with registration number FC009503 and has its registered office at 70 St. Mary Axe, London, EC3A 8BE. U.S. RESIDENTS: With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States of America (the U.S.), National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is registered with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) as a broker-dealer and is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). NBCFI operates pursuant to a 15 a-6 Agreement with its Canadian affiliates, NBF and National Bank of Canada. NatWealth Management (USA) Inc. (NatWealth) is a SEC-registered investment adviser.

This report has been prepared in whole or in part by research analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates of NBCFI that are not registered as broker-dealers or investment advisers in the U.S. These nonU.S. research analysts are not registered as associated persons of NBCFI and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other U.S. regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with the subject company, public appearances by research analysts and trading securities held in a research analyst account. NBF is a Participating Affiliate of NatWealth, and as such each research analyst who provides services to that constitute acting as an investment adviser under U.S. law and regulation is deemed an associated person of NatWealth as part of the participating affiliate regime established by SEC Staff no-action letters. If you make “hard dollar” payments in respect of NBF research services, then such services, including this report, are provided to you by NatWealth under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (the Advisers Act). If you do not make “hard dollar” payments in respect of NBF research services, then such services, including this report, are provided to you via intermediation of NBCFI under Rule 15a-6, and are not subject to the Advisers Act. Because the views of research analysts may differ, members of NBF Group may have or may in the future issue reports that are inconsistent with this report, or that reach conclusions different from those in this report. To make further inquiry related to this report, U.S. residents should contact their NBCFI registered representative or NatWealth associated person, as applicable. HK RESIDENTS: With respect to the distribution of this report in Hong Kong by NBC Financial Markets Asia Limited (NBCFMA) which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) and Type 3 (leveraged foreign exchange trading) regulated activities, the contents of this report are solely for informational purposes. It has not been approved by, reviewed by, verified by or filed with any regulator in Hong Kong. Nothing herein is a recommendation, advice, offer or solicitation to buy or sell a product or service, nor an official confirmation of any transaction. None of the products issuers, NBCFMA or its affiliates or other persons or entities named herein are obliged to notify you of changes to any information and none of the foregoing assume any loss suffered by you in reliance of such information. The content of this report may contain information about investment products which are not authorized by SFC for offering to the public in Hong Kong and such information will only be available to those persons who are Professional Investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (SFO)). If you are in any doubt as to your status you should consult a financial adviser or contact us. This material is not meant to be marketing materials and is not intended for public distribution. Please note that neither this material nor the product referred to is authorized for sale by SFC. Please refer to product prospectus for full details. There may be conflicts of interest relating to NBCFMA or its affiliates’ businesses. These activities and interests include potential multiple advisory, transactional and financial and other interests in securities and instruments that may be purchased or sold by NBCFMA or its affiliates, or in other investment vehicles which are managed by NBCFMA or its affiliates that may purchase or sell such securities and instruments. No other entity within the National Bank of Canada group, including National Bank of Canada and National Bank Financial Inc., is licensed or registered with the SFC. Accordingly, such entities and their employees are not permitted and do not intend to: (i) carry on a business in any regulated activity in Hong Kong; (ii) hold themselves out as carrying on a business in any regulated activity in Hong Kong; or (iii) actively market their services to the Hong Kong public. EU RESIDENTS: With respect to the distribution of this report in the member states of the European Union (EU) and the European Economic Area (EEA) by NBC Paris, the contents of this report are for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment research, financial analysis or other forms of general recommendation relating to transactions in financial instruments within the meaning of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 (MiFID 2). This report is intended only for professional investors and eligible counterparties within the meaning of MiFID 2 and its contents have not been reviewed or approved by any EU/EEA authority. NBC Paris is an investment firm authorized by the French Prudential Control and Resolution Authority (ACPR) to provide investment services in France and has passported its investment services throughout the EU/EEA under the freedom to provide services and has its registered office at 8 avenue Percier, 75008 Paris, France. “NBC Financial Markets, a subsidiary of National Bank of Canada” is a trade name used by NBC Paris S.A. NBF is not authorized to provide investment services in the EU/EEA COPYRIGHT: This Report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of NBF. RESEARCH ANALYSTS: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst responsible for the production of this report certifies that the views expressed herein reflect his or her accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication. NBF compensates its research analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of NBF including Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales, the correspondent clearing business, and Corporate and Investment Banking. Since the revenues from these businesses vary, the funds for research compensation vary. No one business line has a greater influence than any other for research analyst compensation. Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description of each: Outperform (OP) – The stock is expected to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform (SP) – The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector over the next 12 months; Underperform (UP) – The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review (UR) − Our analyst has withdrawn the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender (T) − Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering for the company’s stock; Restricted (R) − Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from rating a company’s stock. INDUSTRY RATING: NBF has an Industry Weighting system that reflects the view of our Economics & Strategy Group, using its sector rotation strategy. The three-tiered system rates industries as Overweight, Market Weight and Underweight, depending on the sector’s projected performance against broader market averages over the next 12 months. RISK RATING: As of June 30, 2020, National Bank Financial discontinued its Below Average, Average and Above Average risk ratings. We continue to use the Speculative risk rating which reflects higher financial and/or operational risk. DISSEMINATION POLICY: Please click on this link to access NBF's Research Dissemination Policy. COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES: Please click on this link to access Company Related Disclosures

In a January 22, 2025 research note, National Bank of Canada analyst Don DeMarco maintained an Outperform rating on Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC:TSX; AAUCF:OTCQX) with a CA$7.75 target price, following Q4 2024 production results of 99,600 ounces that were in line with guidance but showed trending improvement from Sadiola's Korali Sud oxides.

Q4 production was 17% higher quarter-over-quarter, with Sadiola contributing 54,200 ounces (39% higher q/q), Agbaou 25,200 ounces (35% higher q/q), and Bonikro 20,300 ounces (26% lower q/q). Full-year 2024 production reached 358,000 ounces, slightly below guidance of 360,000-367,000 ounces.

Q4 AISC is tracking below US$1,780/oz gold sold versus the revised FY24 AISC guidance of US$1,600/oz, impacted by the timing of Korali sales. The company's cash balance exceeds US$340 million, including year-end treasury and post-quarter Korali gold sales.

The Sadiola Phase 1 expansion requires US$55 million in remaining investment with completion targeted for Q4 2025. Kurmuk development remains on track and within budget, with US$100 million spent in 2024, below original estimates.

The analyst notes the company's growth trajectory and cost reduction potential, estimating "approximately US$90 million cash flow added over the 2024-28 development/expansion period for each US$100/oz increase in gold price." The company trades at 0.23x P/NAV compared to peers at 0.56-0.60x.

The share price at the time of the report of CA$3.45 represents a potential return of 125% to National Bank's CA$7.75 target price.