Gold Co.'s Price Target 88% Higher Than Current
Research Report

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Disclosures for Stifel, Allied Gold Corp., January 22, 2025

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For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for AAUC CN go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=AAUC CN Allied Gold Corp. is a client of Stifel or an affiliate or was a client of Stifel or an affiliate within the past 12 months. Allied Gold Corp. is provided with investment banking services by Stifel or an affiliate or was provided with investment banking services by Stifel or an affiliate within the past 12 months. Stifel or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Allied Gold Corp. in the past 12 months. Stifel or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Allied Gold Corp. in the next 3 months. The equity research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report receive(s) compensation based on various factors, including Stifel's overall revenue, which includes investment banking revenue.

Investment Rating System Our investment rating system is defined as follows: Buy - We expect a total return of greater than 10% over the next 12 months with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield. Speculative Buy1 - We expect a total return of greater than 30% over the next 12 months, with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield, accompanied by substantially higher than normal risk including the possibility of a binary outcome. Hold - We expect a total return between -5% and 10% over the next 12 months with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield. Sell - We expect a total return below -5% over the next 12 months with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield. Occasionally, we use the ancillary rating of Suspended (SU) to indicate a long-term suspension in rating and/or target price, and/or coverage due to applicable regulations or Stifel policies. Alternatively, Suspended may indicate the analyst is unable to determine a "reasonable basis" for rating/target price or estimates due to lack of publicly available information or the inability to quantify the publicly available information provided by the company and it is unknown when the outlook will be clarified. Suspended may also be used when an analyst has left the firm. 1 This rating is only utilised by Stifel Canada. Of the securities we rate, 51% are rated Buy, 1% are rated Speculative Buy, 24% are rated Hold, 1% are rated Sell and 23% are rated Suspended. Within the last 12 months, Stifel or an affiliate has provided investment banking services for 19%, 4%, 6% and 3% of the companies whose shares are rated Buy (includes Speculative Buy), Hold, Sell and Suspended, respectively.

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In a January 22, 2025 flash note, Stifel analysts maintained a Buy rating on Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC:TSX; AAUCF:OTCQX) with a CA$6.50 target price, following Q4 production of 99,600 ounces that met guidance of 98,000-102,000 ounces and positioned the company for strong 2025 performance.

Sadiola produced 54,200 ounces, including 48,000 ounces from Korali oxide ore that remained in inventory at year-end due to administrative processes. The CDI complex produced 45,400 ounces, with Agbaou contributing 25,000 ounces from WP3 and NPB pits plus oxide contributions from Chapelle and Agbali pits.

All-in-sustaining costs for Q4 are expected to not exceed US$1,780/oz, impacted by higher royalties at Sadiola of US$240-300/oz. However, Q4 operating costs and gross margins at Sadiola improved compared to Q3, driven by increased production from Korali ore.

The Sadiola Phase 1 expansion commenced in Q4 2024 with expected completion in Q4 2025, requiring US$55 million in remaining investment. Kurmuk construction progressed with US$100 million spent in 2024, with the project expected to increase production to over 600,000 ounces by mid-2026.

Key risks include market/metal price fluctuations, operational and technical challenges, geopolitical risks in Africa, development uncertainties, and exploration success uncertainty.

The CA$6.50 target price is based on a 0.60x target P/NAV multiple applied to US$7.98 NAVPS. The company trades at 0.19x P/NAV compared to peers at 0.46x.

The share price at the time of the report of CA$3.46 represents a potential return of 88% to Stifel's CA$6.50 target price.