The First Signs of a Rate Reversal
Contributed Opinion

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With world debt/credit markets teetering on the verge of total meltdown, the solution is more of the same reckless money creation that created the mess in the first place. This suits the ruling elites as it will allow them to funnel the wealth of everyone else into their coffers at an ever-increasing rate.

Trump has stated that he wants much lower rates, meaning close to zero or even negative. To achieve this, vast amounts of new money will have to be spirited into existence, and that requires an excuse, an excuse like a war with Iran or the broadcast need to pump hundreds of billions or trillions into U.S. Tech companies to counter the threat from the likes of DeepSeek which has been luridly portrayed as a mortal threat to the U.S. Tech industry and U.S. dominance in recent days, presumably to prepare public opinion for a massive cash infusion into the Tech sector — and the Fed stands ready to create the cash some of which could, of course, be used to stabilize the debt market.

It is also interesting to note that Central Banks have been talking in recent days about heavy intervention to stabilize global bond markets, which given the way things are trending will have to be an order of magnitude higher than anything done in the past.

So it would appear that Trump has been "reading the tea leaves" right in the recent past — it looks like he will get his lower rates, and they will be great for the ruling class and the stock market and terrible for the dollar and the economy and everyone else who will have to cope with hyperinflation and shrinkflation like you've never seen — you will have to take a magnifying glass to the supermarket to see your box of breakfast cereal.

It is thus interesting to observe on the charts for the U.S.10-year Treasury Yield the first signs of a possible reversal to the downside. On the 5-month chart, we can see that although the uptrend in the Yield remains in force so far, the uptrend is converging somewhat, which means it could be a bearish Rising Wedge, and if we look carefully, we can see that a potential Head-and-Shoulders top may be completing. A breakdown from this pattern would also involve a breach of the important support level shown and a breakdown from the uptrend channel, which would signify a potentially major reversal, and fundamentally, that is the direction that this appears to be heading.

It is much easier to see this potential Head-and-Shoulders top on a 2-month chart.

So, we should watch this closely going forward. If Yields do break down in the manner that now looks increasingly likely, the stock market will take off strongly higher again.

The economy is irrelevant, as we have already had ample opportunity to observe, the stock market couldn't care less about the economy; all it cares about is more easy money from the Fed.