In a January 29, 2025 research note, BMO Capital analyst Kevin O'Halloran maintained an Outperform rating on MAG Silver Corp. (MAG:TSX; MAG:NYSE American) with a CA$27.00 target price, following Q4 production results in line with estimates and 2025 guidance above expectations.
The company reported Q4 silver production at Juanicipio of 4.26 million ounces, aligning with estimates of 4.23 million ounces. Throughput reached 334,000 tonnes, slightly exceeding the forecast of 330,000 tonnes, while Q4 gold production of 9,000 ounces fell below expectations of 10,500 ounces due to lower grades.
Full-year 2024 silver production reached 18.6 million ounces, exceeding revised guidance of 16.3-17.3 million ounces. The full-year silver grade of 468 grams per tonne (g/t) surpassed the guidance range of 420-460 g/t, which had been revised higher from 380-420 g/t in July.
Looking ahead, 2025 production guidance of 14.7-16.7 million ounces exceeds previous estimates of 13.5 million ounces. Production is expected to be weighted toward the second and third quarters due to mine sequencing and grade variability. The 2025 silver grade guidance of 380-430 g/t is higher than the 373 g/t forecast from March 2024's technical report, while gold grade guidance is set at 1.2-1.4 g/t.
The company plans to announce cost guidance for 2025 alongside its 2024 financial results.
The share price at the time of the report of CA$21.10 represents a potential return of 28% to BMO's CA$27.00 target price.
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