2025 Investment Outlook: Finding Alpha Through Strategic Focus
Contributed Opinion

1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Midnight Sun Mining Corp. and Libero Copper Corp.
2. Malcolm Shaw: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 
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Disclosures for Hydra Capital

This is not investment advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell shares in the company/companies mentioned.

The information contained herein is accurate to the best of the author’s knowledge, but the material and interpretations contained herein should be independently verified by any party using this information as part of any research, editorial, or decision making process. Any views expressed here represent the author’s opinion only, and as such readers should do their own research and come to their own conclusions if they are using the opinions contained herein as part of any larger due diligence process. The author may have long or short positions in the companies mentioned and may be buying or selling in the market depending on which way the wind is blowing at any given moment. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Prospective resources, predictions, comparisons, financial projections, and extrapolated metrics are, by their nature, subjective and interpretation dependent. The topics covered are highly speculative and involve a high degree of uncertainty and risk. Speculative companies can and do go to zero. By using this site, you agree that the author(s) and Hydra Capital is/are not responsible for any damages incurred by the use of the presented materials. Anyone reading these blog posts should know that they are the author’s thoughts and opinions, which are not to be confused with or construed as research reports.

When I think about my past successful investment strategies, the path to superior returns consistently emerged from identifying overlooked opportunities rather than pursuing broad market themes. These are "alpha ideas."

While sector-wide movements like the 2021 oil recovery can generate returns, my most substantial gains typically come from discovering unique situations that offer asymmetric upside potential.

The key is finding opportunities where I think I possess an edge of some kind, whether through specialized industry knowledge, recognition of underlying value, or identification of catalytic changes in management or operations.

One of my favorite quotes is, "You can only lose 100%." Keeping that in the back of my mind, when evaluating ideas, I try to weigh the potential upside relative to the likelihood of total failure. Below, I touch on companies that have all intrigued me in one way or another. Tenaz continues to be an example of how right things can go with a little patience. The rest of the companies haven't reached their "re-rate" phases yet, but I think that each has unique catalysts which, if they come to pass, could move them up in terms of market interest and awareness . . . and hopefully value.

Tenaz Energy

Tenaz Energy Corp. (TNZ:TSX) was the standout performer of 2024 and continues to present compelling value.

After a 900% rise from its December 2022 lows, TNZ distinguished itself as the TSX's leading energy stock and sixth-best overall performer. The company's recent US$140 million unsecured note offering strengthens their balance sheet and positions them for further acquisitions.

With the NAM/NOBV North Sea acquisition scheduled to close in mid-2025 and with European gas prices around CA$22/mcf, TNZ offers unique exposure to premium-priced European energy markets. The company's tight capital structure of just 27.4 million shares provides significant leverage to value-accretive transactions.

At this stage, my view on TNZ is that continued patience is my only requirement as the team continues to strive for per-share value creation with its internationally-focused acquire-optimize-develop strategy.

TAG Oil

Under the new CEO, Abby Badwi, TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO:TSX.V; TAOIF:OTCQX) is positioning for a turnaround. With Badwi's personal US$1 million investment and an imminent tuck-in acquisition, the company is expected to expand its ARF oil source-rock play exposure to over 500,000 acres.

Having weathered tax loss selling season and maintaining a debt-free balance sheet, TAO represents an intriguing recovery prospect for 2025 after a dismal 2024.

Tuktu Resources

Emerging as a compelling speculative oil play, Tuktu Resources Ltd. (TUK:TSX.V; JAMGF:OTCMKTS) plans to follow up its successful vertical well test (400 bopd) with horizontal drilling in Q1 2025.

Having secured US$10 million in Q4 2024, the company is well-funded to drill its first horizontal well in a new Mississippian oil discovery in southern Alberta.

Continued success could establish a significant light oil discovery, ultimately potentially attracting acquisition interest from larger producers seeking high-return development opportunities.

Condor Energies

Condor Energies Inc. (CDR:TSX.V) is a unique opportunity that combines established Uzbek gas production (11,350 boepd) with emerging Kazakh LNG development.

Its gas enhancement program continues to exceed targets, with potential for additional field optimizations and drilling in 2025 and beyond. The upcoming maiden Uzbek reserves report will give a first look at the resource potential later in Q1 2025.

Its modular LNG initiative, targeting Kazakhstan's locomotive fleet conversion (from high-cost diesel to lower-cost LNG), presents multiple plant development opportunities. The company's recent CA$20 million financing at CAD$1.90 will support accelerated growth plans in 2025.

Midnight Sun Mining

Following the successful resolution of Kazhiba license renewals in Zambia, Midnight Sun Mining Corp. (MMA:TSX.V; MDNGF:OTCQB) presents a compelling copper opportunity. 

Its strategic position adjacent to First Quantum Minerals Ltd.'s (FM:TSX; FQM:LSE) Kansanshi mine creates natural synergies. Upcoming oxide drill program assays and geophysical results could also highlight significant additional exploration potential on MMA's lands. MMA has already attracted the interest of well-backed specialists KoBold Metals with drilling expected around mid-2025. KoBold is spending US$15 million to earn 75% of MMA's Dumbwa license as they hunt for Zambia's next billion-tonne development project. 

The prospect of cost-optimization benefits makes MMA an attractive acquisition target for First Quantum, suggesting potential value appreciation as development progresses, with a "free call option" on exploration potential.

 Libero Copper

Under CEO Ian Harris's direction, Libero Copper and Gold Corp.'s (LBC:TSX.V; LBCMF:OTCQB) Macoa copper project in Colombia shows substantial scale potential. With current resources exceeding 600 million tonnes and seven to eight untapped porphyry centers, the project's expansion towards one billion tonnes appears achievable.

Its ongoing 14,000-meter drill program could validate historical results and expand the resource base. The 2024 forest reserve reclassification enhanced accessibility in the western portion of the project area.

Given its proactive community engagement approach and project scale, LBC represents an undervalued copper development opportunity that could re-rate significantly if a few stars line up.

New Stratus Energy

Industry speculation regarding potential Ecuadorian oil asset acquisition makes New Stratus Energy Inc. (NSE:TSX.V) an intriguing speculative opportunity.

Given PetroEcuador's historical operational inefficiencies, the potential transfer of assets to private operations could unlock significant value for both NSE and the country of Ecuador.

While highly speculative, successful asset acquisition could position NSE as a notable international energy developer in 2025.

Vior Inc.

Vior Inc.'s (VIO:TSXV; VL51:FRA) consolidation and nascent exploration of the Belleterre Mine Trend in Quebec, with historical production of 750,000 ounces at approximately 10 g/t gold, presents a compelling small-cap gold speculation. 

Recent drilling confirmed system continuity 500 meters below known past-producing zones. The December 2024 addition of Osisko Mining's management team, following their recent CA$2.2+ billion sale to Goldfields, brings proven expertise into the story.

VIO's fully-funded 60,000-meter drilling program could bring more attention to the project, especially given the well-known team that's now in place.

Black Iron

Black Iron Inc. (BKI:TSX), a Ukraine-focused iron ore development, presents a post-conflict reconstruction opportunity.

Anglo American Plc.'s (AAUK:OTCQX; AAL:LSE) November 2024 US$4 million investment for offtake and royalty rights validates project potential. The Shymanivske project's previous Cargill offtake agreement further demonstrates major industry interest.

While early-stage and requiring permit renewals, BKI offers leveraged exposure to Ukrainian economic recovery via a project that boasts compelling economic potential.

Additional Holdings and Sector Observations

The portfolio maintains positions in several other notable opportunities:
- Technology sector exposure through POET Technologies (PTK:TSX.V; POET:NASDAQ)
- Gold sector holdings in Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX:TSX; EQX:NYSE.A) and K92 Mining Inc. (KNT:TSX.V)
- Strategic metals exposure via Fireweed Metals Corp. (FWEDF:OTCMKTS; FWZ:TSX.V))
- Nuclear sector positioning through NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE:TSX; NXE:NYSE.MKT)
- Lithium sector exposure via Sigma Lithium Corp. (SGML:TSXV; SGML:US)
- Nickel sector investments in Magna Mining Inc. (NICU:TSX.V; MGMNF:OTCMKTS) and Premium Resources LLC. (PREM:TSX.V)

The cannabis sector, particularly Trulieve (TRUL:CNQ), could see significant appreciation given potential U.S. federal policy changes, but timing is always the big question for the sector.

The names I've touched on here represent opportunities that are largely flying in the radar of most investors, but each have set-ups that I like to see. They never all work out as hoped and sometimes the market decides to teach a lesson in patience along the way, but by keeping an evergreen stable of ideas there's always something to keep me entertained. Let's see what 2025 brings.