US Co. Granted Mining Project Permit After 8-Year Process
Research Report

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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Perpetua Resources Corp., January 7, 2025

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Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ) achieved a major permitting milestone for its Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho when it received the U.S. Forest Service's Final Record of Decision (FROD) on it, H.C. Wainwright & Co. Analyst Heiko Ihle reported in a Jan. 7 research note. The metals explorer has been working toward this event for eight years.

"Our attention shifts toward the firm receiving its necessary federal and state permits while securing financing for the project," Ihle wrote.

96% Uplift Potential

H.C. Wainwright updated its model on Perpetua, and this resulted in a target price boost to US$25 per share from US$22, noted Ihle. In comparison, the company's share price at the time of the report about US$12.77. From here, the return to target is 96%.

Among the model revisions, Ihle wrote, was an update to the discount rate on Stibnite, lowered to 11% from 11.5%, to account for the recent project derisking event. Another change was an increase in the forecasted antimony price to US$12 per pound from US$6.

Perpetua remains rated Buy.

Antimony Supply Chain

Before the FROD was published, Perpetua entered into two agreements regarding the processing of antimony, reported Ihle. It announced both within a week of China restricting its exports of antimony to the U.S.

One agreement was with United States Antimony Corp. to do metallurgical testing of antimony concentrate from Stibnite. The other, a memorandum of understanding, was with the Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining Co., a private entity, to explore future antimony processing opportunities.

"We believe that these partnerships could ultimately strengthen a closed-loop American supply chain for antimony and reiterate that export restrictions from China have significantly decreased the available supply," Ihle wrote.

A Look Ahead

H.C. Wainwright expects Perpetua to keep advancing Stibnite toward a construction decision. This work encompasses receiving the final requisite federal and state permits and securing project financing.

Regarding the latter, Ihle purported that institutional investors' interest in Perpetua likely will continue as it receives its pending permits and the global antimony supply keeps diminishing. Another potential source of financing is from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, which previously expressed its interest in potentially providing Perpetua with a loan for up to US$1.8 billion.

Finally, Ihle reiterated that once Stibnite is up and running, in the first four years, the operation is expected to produce 450,000 ounces of gold. In the first six years, the mine will produce enough antimony to supply up to 35% of the U.S.' need for it. These figures are based on the project's 4,800,000 ounces of gold and 148,000,000 pounds of antimony.