Will It Be 'Bombs Away' for January?
Contributed Opinion

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Today is the final day of the First Five Days indicator. If the S&P closes below 5,881.63, it will be "BOMBS AWAY" for January.

The USD index futures are ahead 0.49% to 108.910 this morning, with the 10-year yield up .32% to 4.70 and the 30-year yield up 0.49% to 4.936%.

Gold (+0.36%), silver (+0.37%), copper (+0.26%), and oil (+0.38%) are all higher.

Stock futures are mixed, with the DJIA up 32.7 points, the S&P 500 futures up 5.7 points, and the NASDAQ down 0.06%. Risk barometer Bitcoin (-5.18%) is down $5,2150 to $95,465.

Forecast Issue

The First Five Days indicator tracks market performance for the period and ends this afternoon at 4:00 pm.

With the S&P 500 closing yesterday at 5,909.03, it is a mere 27.4 points above the 2024 closing level of 5,881.63. If it holds that level today, it eliminates the likelihood of a down January (and failed January Barometer).

If it closes below that level, it increases the odds of 2025 being a down year or, at best, sharply reduced gains.

I will be taking the data from today's closing prices and finishing off the GGMA 2025 Forecast Issue.

Stocks

Yesterday, the market reversed above the 20-dma and had a miserable performance. Closing down by over 1% as there was broad liquidation across the board. The year is starting off with a whimper, and regardless of the ebullience regarding the change in government in the U.S., I maintain that the markets are completely ignoring the ramifications of tariffs, deportations, and protectionism whose muscles are currently being flexed with little regard for collateral damage.

The VIX:US is charging ahead again this morning to 18.79, with the VIX February $15 calls called to open at $3.85. Yesterday, I made the following switch:

• Sold 40 calls VIX January $10 calls at $7.25 (US$29,000)
• Bought 90 calls VIX February $15 at $3.25 (US$29,250)

The target price for the February calls is $10.00 (25 for the VIX:US)