Generally speaking, while I am bullish longer-term on most industrial and so-called battery metals, I am much less so near term for a host of reasons I've explained and will be discussing again in the coming days. There will be glimmers of hope/signs of better times to come for some individual stories for various reasons where the dynamics, specific story getting traction, or policy/funding tailwinds separate them from the pack.
By far, the biggest gainer for us has remained IperionX Ltd. (IPX:NASDAQ; IPX:ASX) to whom CONGRATULATIONS are also in order for cracking the $1 billion market cap threshold.
The company announced last month that it had acquired several other breakthrough titanium processing technologies (these, as you'll read, from Blacksand Technology, LLC) to add to its leading and — indeed — seemingly monopolistic (in a good way!) portfolio.
Said C.E.O. Taso Arima, "The acquisition of the award-winning intellectual property portfolio is an important milestone for IperionX — delivering direct control of the technologies and innovations that underpin our plans to re-shore an end-to-end, lower-cost U.S. titanium supply chain that is critical to America's economic and national security."
The company — with Arima reminded me when we visited last month — is sitting on over $100 million in cash as it works toward ramping up its Virginia facility. Having already garnered some money (to go along with selected contracts) from the U.S. government, Arima is in the catbird seat with other funding sources standing by as the company works toward a "modular expansion" over time using the recently-acquired technologies along with its HAMR process to pretty much be the only U.S. game in town in its sector.
IperionX has a lot of runway ahead of it in the coming months and years. It remains an "Accumulate" for now simply due to its recent runup, most likely needing to consolidate a bit more. But if you are not already in this name, think about getting in sooner rather than later; by the same token, I wouldn't want to be too cute picking a bottom to a correction and have it get away from you!
Elsewhere, Fireweed Metals Corp. (FWEDF:OTCMKTS; FWZ:TSX.V) has done better than the vast majority of base metals exploration "juniors" as it, too, recently scored major strategic funding from both the Canadian and U.S. governments.
This news — which I first passed along to you the day it came out — had been long anticipated; and underscores the strategic North American importance, too, of its world-class Mactung (chiefly for its tungsten) and Macmillan Pass Projects.
We're already well ahead of the game here, given our initial entry at around the Canadian 80 cents/share area. But you'll see my "BUY" recommendation is also in bold as this would be a play I'd advocate having a more outsized position in. Its present CA$250 million or so market cap does not remotely recognize the ultimate value of the company's projects.
Elsewhere, I was happy to be invited to a Fastmarkets webinar on the outlook for battery metals overall. They graciously made the recording and slides available without a paywall or such thing; they are here.
This was extremely well done; a LOT was covered simply and succinctly in an hour's time. The takeaway for our purposes is that — covering all of them clinically and dispassionately — they were most constructive on nickel's chances near-term of rising from the recent beatings most of these metals have suffered.
In our modest present "orbit," where nickel is one of the more key elements to a story, I've already advocated new/renewed purchases of FPX Nickel Corp. (FPX:TSX.V; FPOCF:OTC) for reasons I discussed several weeks ago. The company just announced, too, a game plan to use its CA$35+ million in working capital to reduce its public share count by up to 5 million shares.
Alaska Energy Metals Corp. (AEMC:TSX.V; AKEMF:OTCQB; V7F:FRA), like most other nickel stocks, has suffered.
- due to nickel's price crash and lingering weakness
- due to the overall disinterest in base metal exploration "juniors" on the part of investors.
Again, as for the first of those, Fastmarkets' folks see nickel turning well before lithium and most other metals. Keep in mind that a lot of high-profile development stage projects (such as that of Crawford, owned by Canada Nickel, which we were wise enough to bail out on at almost three times its current share price) need a nickel price closer to $25,000/ton to be economically viable. As you'll hear in Fastmarkets' presentation, they see a turnaround for numerous reasons.
BUT one caveat that's a wild card right now, especially for Canadian companies: as FPX's C.E.O. Martin Turenne first told me several days ago, Prime Minister Castreau is attempting to get a measure passed that would essentially reverse a trade minister's decision of a couple of years back and allow Indonesian nickel to be imported by Canada. So if you live in "the 51st state," be on the lookout — if not warpath — over this "under cover of darkness" attempted move.
Elsewhere, Alaska Energy Metals — while its drilling this past season at Canwell did not uncover the kind of uber-high grade material pined for — did succeed in setting up Canwell also as at least somewhat of a clone of Eureka: a broad, fairly homogenous area that could be economically open pittable. Further, where the company gave details on exploration at Canwell late last month, not only were some of the nickel grades higher, but interesting amounts of iron and chromium that warrant further investigation.
At Eureka — already host to multi-billion pound resource of both nickel and copper — this past season's work:
- Extended the perceived mineralization area by 1.8 km
- Further defined a recently-encountered higher grade core area. See here and here, respectively.
When I last spoke with C.E.O. Greg Beischer a few weeks back, he reminded me, too, that metallurgical work is ongoing to start fleshing out the recovery rates of the metals; results from that are still expected this winter. Following that, the company will issue an update to its Mineral Resource Estimate. Most likely, it will still be inferred, albeit larger, but keep in mind here that over several kilometers now at Eureka, grades have been astonishingly uniform wherever drilling has been done (save for the evolving higher-grade core area.) Thus, Beischer said he's contemplating going right to a Preliminary Economic Assessment (P.E.A.) on Eureka.
While its area is better known for platinum and palladium (not a pleasant time right now for Sibanye-Stillwater, which has had to part-shutter operations in Montana due to weak PGM prices) Stillwater Critical Minerals Corp. (PGE:TSX.V; PGEZF:OTCQB; J0G:FSE) has, basically next door, been fleshing out a substantial resource of base metals more broadly, almost half of which is nickel.
For those still unfamiliar with Stillwater (where I am going back to a BUY in anticipation of not only a post-tax selling recovery but also some coming policy tailwinds), check out their quick introductory/overview video and spend some time as well at their website.
The positives here: an existing, substantial polymetallic resource . . . strong backing from Glencore . . . increasing attention from industry/government that should be augmented under the incoming Trump Administration.
The flip side is that — even though C.E.O. Mike Rowley regularly points out a better-expected cost equation than what has been bedeviling Sibanye —there are still going to be substantial development hurdles.
For starters, the present base case is going to be for a block cave development for the ore body, as presently understood. Second — and this is an intriguing story for PGE and other companies/stories I am getting closer to in 2025, as with BacTech Environmental Corp. (BAC:CSE; BCCEF:OTC; OBT1:FSE) — the "formula" for eventual recovery of metals is a work in progress.
All told the reasons for being in this name far outweigh the hoops still to be jumped through.
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