Quince Therapeutics Inc. is "positioned for a transformative year" in 2025 with a solid cash position of US$47.8 million as of the third quarter of 2024, D. Boral Capital Analyst Jason Kolbert wrote in an updated research note on January 2.
The company will use the cash to drive its lead asset, EryDex, through critical clinical and regulatory milestones, Kolbert noted. Its Phase 3 NEAT trial evaluating EryDex for Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T) continues to progress, targeting Q2-25 enrollment completion and Q4-25 topline results. AT is a rare, inherited neurodegenerative disorder affecting the brain, nervous system, and immune system.
"Simultaneously, Quince is leveraging EryDex’s platform potential, expanding into new rare disease indications, including a planned Phase 2 study in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD)," said the analyst, who rated the stock a Buy with a US$12 per share target price — a more than 500% increase over its price Thursday.
Quince’s Phase 3 NEAT trial for EryDex in A-T remains its cornerstone, with US$20 million allocated for trial execution and US$15 million set aside for an open-label extension, Kolbert wrote.
As of Q3 24, 32 participants have been enrolled across the U.S., U.K., and EU, with a full enrollment of more than 100 patients expected by mid-2025 and topline results .anticipated in Q4 25.
"Positive data could pave the way for regulatory submissions in 2026, marking a significant milestone for Quince," Kolbert wrote. "Additionally, the company has showcased compelling safety data and impacts on growth and bone density, reinforcing EryDex’s potential to transform care for A-T patients."
Strategically Broadening Drug's Pipeline
Quince is also strategically broadening its pipeline to address additional rare disease indications, the analyst noted. In 2025, it plans to initiate a Phase 2 trial of EryDex in DMD patients with corticosteroid intolerance, an area of high unmet need.
"Furthermore, Quince has identified 11 rare disease opportunities where EryDex could address corticosteroid safety concerns, positioning the company as a leader in innovative, steroid-sparing therapies," according to Kolbert. "With a focus on platform expansion and ongoing commercial planning efforts reflected in its US$3.6 million Q3 G&A expenses, Quince is laying the groundwork for long-term growth while maintaining fiscal discipline to extend its operational runway through 2026."
Kolbert said D. Boral modeled the A-T indication and DMD out to 2034, applying varying probability of success factors, 70% for A-T and 30% for DMD, based on the probability of approval and the realization of the market estimates.
"In addition to the POS factor, we apply a 30% discount rate to our models," Kolbert wrote. "We assume additional capital will be raised in our final share count. We then use these projections to our Free Cash Flow to the firm, or FCFF discounted EPS or dEPS, and sum-of-the-parts or SOP models, which are equal-weighted, averaged, and rounded to the nearest whole number to derive our 12-month price target of US$12."
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