CT Biotech Ready for Clinical Milestones
Research Report

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Disclosures for EF Hutton, Trevi Therapeutics Inc., October 4, 2024

Analyst Certification I, Jason Kolbert, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

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EF Hutton analyst Jason Kolbert, in a research report published on October 4, 2024, maintained a Buy rating on Trevi Therapeutics Inc. (TRVI:NASDAQ) with a price target of US$21.00. The report highlights Trevi's progress in its clinical trials for Haduvio, particularly in treating chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients and refractory chronic cough (RCC).

Kolbert emphasized the significance of recent developments in the CORAL trial, stating, "The Phase 2b CORAL trial for chronic cough in IPF patients has enrolled 50% of its target, triggering a sample size re-estimation (SSRE) once six weeks of treatment is completed, SSRE results are expected in December 2024." He outlined potential outcomes, including "No Change (maintaining sample size), increasing it, or evaluating for futility."

The analyst noted upcoming milestones, including "Topline results are expected in the first half of 2025" for the CORAL study, and "The Phase 2a RIVER trial for RCC anticipates topline results in early 2025."

Regarding the CORAL study, Kolbert explained, "It is a dose-ranging study evaluating the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of Haduvio for chronic cough in IPF. This trial is being conducted at multiple sites across 11 countries, using a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-arm design."

The report highlighted the significance of the RCC program, with Kolbert noting, "Refractory chronic cough (RCC) affects up to 10% of adults and is defined as a persistent cough lasting more than eight weeks despite treatment for any underlying conditions." He added, "Currently, there are no approved therapies for RCC in the United States."

Kolbert's valuation methodology for Trevi Therapeutics is based on modeling Haduvio for IPF-related cough and RCC. He explained, "We apply a 70% POS in IPF and 50% in CC. We select a 30% discount rate (r) and assume additional capital raises in our final share count. We then apply these projections to our Free Cash Flow to the firm, or FCFF discounted EPS or dEPS, and sum-of-the-parts or SOP models."

The analyst concluded, "These are equal-weighted, averaged, and rounded to the nearest whole number to derive our 12-month price target of US$21.00."

Kolbert also outlined several risk factors, including clinical/regulatory risk, partnership and financial risk, commercial risk, legal and intellectual property risk, and market share risk.

In conclusion, EF Hutton's maintenance of a Buy rating and US$21 price target reflects a positive outlook on Trevi Therapeutics' potential in developing Haduvio for chronic cough conditions. The share price at the time of the report of US$3.19 represents a potential return of approximately 558% to the analyst's target price, highlighting the significant upside potential if the company's clinical trials prove successful.