The Eye of the Tiger
Contributed Opinion

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Gold has surpassed $2500/ounce, while copper's fluctuating due to recession fears. Oil's trading at around $75/barrel, and North American natural gas is stuck in the low 2's, in contrast to high European gas prices.

Hedge funds are reportedly more bearish on commodities than they have been in over a decade, and the market is anticipating a potential Federal Reserve rate decision in September. Despite a recent disruption in the Yen carry trade, the S&P has nearly recovered to its recent peak.

I do not see any compelling reason to change course. Gold's looking shinier than copper, and I am finding value in energy sector stocks compared to the broader market. My focus remains on the plays where I believe I've got a leg up.

I've dubbed this one "The Eye of the Tiger" — partly because it's a great 80's song, but also because tigers are the epitome of patience and focus when they're on the hunt. They don't take unnecessary risks while waiting for the right moment to pounce. Markets can be volatile, but by keeping my bets on companies and projects I know inside and out, I find it easier to weather the storms when they hit. Things are pretty quiet this month, so let me review some of my top picks that my readers are always asking about.

Tenaz Energy 

Well, would you look at what a difference a month makes? Tenaz Energy Corp. (TNZ:TSX) has recently acquired significant Dutch North Sea assets from NAM (an Exxon/Shell joint venture). This acquisition has positioned Tenaz as a top-performing energy stock on the TSX this year.

This Tenaz story is a textbook case of a formidable team building shareholder value, and I'd bet they're just getting started. Tony Marino took the stage at Enercom in Denver yesterday, laying out the Tenaz story and explaining the company's deal to acquire  ~11,000 boepd of production (99% gas) and associated infrastructure in the Dutch North Sea.

Once the deal closes, we're looking at an after-tax NPV10 of $16 per share on PDP, $22.50 on 1P, and $34 on 2P. And that's just assuming Tenaz doesn't do anything else corporately. 

Around the 15-minute mark, Marino said, "I like our M&A pipeline that we have better than I have at any time in the three-year history of the company, and we’re not going to stop just because we’re in the midst of the NOBV transition." Well, well, well. . . 

With their sights set on growing to 50-100,000 boepd through smart, value-boosting acquisitions, I think there are plenty more chapters in this story. And with only 27.2 million shares out there, Tenaz's tight share structure means every accretive deal packs a serious punch for shareholders.

Right now, I am sitting tight and waiting for management to do what they do. With Tenaz, patience has always been the name of the game, and I see no reason to change tack now. They are just getting started. 

TAG Oil

TAG Oil Ltd.'s (TAO:TSX.V; TAOIF:OTCQX) stock performance has been subdued this year. The last press release showed that the T100 well is currently producing 400-500 barrels per day from a 300-meter horizontal leg in the ARF. This represents the first horizontal fracking in this part of Egypt.

Without more news, I'm holding. The crickets in the chat rooms and the low volumes tell me TAO's not exactly everyone's top pick. However, opening a new play is not the easiest thing in the world. Here's hoping they knock it out of the park on the next go-round, maybe with a full 1000-meter lateral this time.

TAO's been keeping it closed-lipped lately, but I foresee us getting some sort of update in the next month or so about their game plan or how T100's holding up. For me, trading's off the table. It's one of my more speculative holdings, but I've got a soft spot for the underdog. And right now, TAO's definitely that. 

Condor Energies

Condor Energies Inc. (CDR:TSX.V) presents an unusual investment case, yet it has demonstrated strong performance. The company has recently finalized a gas production enhancement agreement in Uzbekistan. In the second quarter, Condor reported gas production of 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), generating approximately $20 million in revenue.

Initial low-cost strategies to boost gas production have shown positive results, and the company has significant potential to expand production with modest capital expenditure. Simultaneously, Condor is establishing itself as a regional player in Kazakhstan's domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, which serves as an attractive alternative to diesel in the country.

The Kazakh government has allocated feedgas to Condor to support its LNG initiatives, and the company aims to expand this allocation over time. Currently, Condor is focusing on supplying LNG to Kazakhstan's locomotive fleet, which is scheduled for upgrades. This represents a potentially significant opportunity for a company of Condor's size.

While this investment may not suit all portfolios, it could be of interest to those looking to diversify into Central Asian energy markets.

Midnight Sun Mining

Midnight Sun Mining Corp. (MMA:TSX.V; MDNGF:OTCQB) remains at a stable position, with no significant changes to report. However, the company is approaching a crucial phase as drilling operations are set to commence on two fronts: the Dumbwa Joint Venture with KoBold, and the oxide drilling program in close proximity to First Quantum's Kansanshi mine.

There are no new developments to report since the last update. The current copper price has minimal impact on the investment thesis for MMA, as positive results from either drilling program could potentially lead to a reevaluation of the stock's value in the future.

At present, MMA.V has limited market attention. However, it's anticipated that the potential synergies with First Quantum may eventually attract wider investor interest. For the time being, we await further developments.

Vizsla Silver

Vizsla Silver Corp. (VZLA:TSX.V; VZLA:NYSE) can be compared to Aya Gold and Silver (AYA.TO) in its pre-production phase, as both companies have identified resources of approximately 300 million ounces of silver equivalent with similar grades and thicknesses.

VZLA appears to be undervalued compared to its peers in the silver sector. The recently released Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) has reinforced this perspective. The company's own press release regarding the PEA results provides a comprehensive overview of the situation. Here is a direct quote from the VZLA press release, which encapsulates the key points:

“An estimated after-tax NPV (5 per cent) of more than $1.1-billion (U.S.), an after-tax IRR of 85.7 per cent and a payback period of approximately nine months helps solidify Panuco as a world-class development project in the precious metals space,” commented Michael Konnert, president and chief executive officer. “The PEA, based on conservative metals prices of $26 (U.S.) per ounce silver and $1,975 (U.S.) per oz gold, outlines a high-margin, underground silver primary mine with substantial silver-gold production of 162.1 million silver equivalent ounces over an initial 11-year mine life. Annually, the mine is projected to produce an average of 15.2 million silver equivalent ounces, providing exceptional free cash flow, particularly in the early years, allowing for a very rapid payback of the estimated low initial capex of $224-million (U.S.). It’s important to note that this PEA represents only a snapshot of the potential value of Panuco, as we have only explored less than 30 per cent of the known targets in the district. Furthermore, ongoing drilling with two drill rigs continues to expand and convert high-grade veins in and around the proposed mine plan, enhancing the potential for improved economics in a feasibility study planned for the second half of 2025. Panuco benefits from excellent access to existing infrastructure, significant exploration upside potential to discover new mineralized centres and potentially new standalone projects hosting similar economics to that outlined in today’s study. As such, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Panuco will be a meaningful contributor to the silver industry for decades to come. I would like to thank everyone at Vizsla Silver, our stakeholders and community members for all the hard work over the years to reach this monumental milestone.”

Gold Stocks

With gold reaching new all-time highs, it's becoming an attractive investment option. The market doesn't appear to be overcrowded, and companies like Newmont Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE) are trading below their 5-year highs, potentially presenting an opportunity.

The focus is on more liquid names in the gold sector, with major holdings in VanEck Junior Gold Miner ETF (GDXJ:NYSEArca), K92 Mining Inc. (KNT:TSX.V), and Newmont.

Smaller positions include GTWO, OGC, GOT, WRLG, and AOT. The sector remains relatively unfamiliar to many investors, but there is not any bull market quite like a gold one, so fingers crossed the breakout is for real.

Technology

The main technology position is in POET Technologies (POET:NASDAQ;PTK:TSXV). While I do not specialize in tech investments, this company's photonics platform has attracted my interest.

Photonics technology, which uses tiny lasers instead of wires to transmit data on chips, offers benefits such as increased data capacity, reduced energy usage, and smaller form factors. It's potentially applicable to artificial intelligence. Recent development deals with Foxconn Interconnect and Luxshare have increased interest in the company.

Speculative Investment

Tuktu Resources (TUK:TSXV) is mentioned as a highly speculative microcap investment in a potential new oil play in Alberta. Initial tests have shown promising results, but more data is needed.

The share structure includes a significant number of low-priced stocks and warrants.

While there's potential for high returns if successful, there's also a risk of significant loss.

I think I have said all I need to today. Thank you for reading, and happy hunting.