A Listless Session in Advance of Nvidia Earnings
Contributed Opinion

1. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Nvidia Corp. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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Goldman Sacks calls Nvidia Corp. (NVDA:NASDAQ) "the most important stock in the world," and based on its weighting in the S&P 500, that is undoubtedly true.

The company reports earnings after the bell tonight, and while they will probably come in "above expectations" with a "beat," there are many components within the report that could spook traders into taking the immense profits that exist in this, the artificial intelligence leader of the Free World.

Forward guidance about future revenue and profit margin, as well as delivery of the new prototype chip, could undermine the report, but at the end of the day, it is going to be how traders are positioned going into the opening on Thursday that will matter. My bet is that they will have the ugly month of September on the horizon and choose to trim holdings before month-end.

The stock is up 45% from the low established on August 5 during the "carry trade crash," which has turned out to be the best buying opportunity of the year.

While it is not yet in typically overbought condition based on an RSI in the high 50s, MACD is starting to flatten, and MFI at 69 represents cautionary signals. The saying used to be "As GM goes, so goes the market." (1960-1980); then it shifted to "As IBM goes, so goes the market." (1980-2000), after which it shifted to "As APPL goes, so goes the market." and while that is still partially true, in 2024 the theme has shifted to "As NVDA goes, so goes the market."

I expect today's session to be listless in advance of the big NVDA report after the close.