Oil Bottom is a Buying Opportunity
Contributed Opinion

I last predicted a bottom in oil prices on May 5th because of a morning doji star reversal pattern and oversold conditions. It does not make much sense that oil prices have come back down to where they are but understand that oil is highly politicized, especially with the Ukraine war, and a lower price helps the Fed's inflation fight.

That said, interventions in markets can only have short-term effects, and prices are going to head back up. With all the uncertainty going into 2024, the middle east war, and now a fight over oil between Guyana and Venezuela, prices of $150 next year would not surprise me.

I have found that these morning doji star reversal patterns are one of the most reliable in technical charting. The long red candle represents heavy selling, and the doji candle sticks the next day means indecision by traders on which way the market will go. The strong green candle the next day confirms the new direction is up. The May reversal pattern saw two subsequent tests of the May low, but nonetheless, the bottom held.

This is a huge buying opportunity. Biden's administration's desperate acts to lower oil prices, which involved selling out the SPR and easing sanctions on Venezuela's oil to help lower prices, are looking to backfire. Venezuela probably saw the easing as a signal the U.S. needs their oil.

Following a vote, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has declared the return of Essequibo, which represents some two-thirds of Guyana's territory, to Venezuela. To further escalate, today's news was that Venezuela's Prosecutor's Office has issued arrest warrants for a dozen opposition members, including former National Assembly head Juan Guaido and three members of staff of opposition presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado. The three are charged with conspiring against the Sunday referendum to annex Essequibo. And now the U.S. is conducting military exercises with Guyana. There is not a lot of oil here, but it is not going to help the world supply.

For senior companies, I like Shell and Devon which are both in my Millennium index for dividend yield. The link in the company name is to my first write up and I added some brief comments for an update. 

Shell Plc. (SHEL:NYSE)

^{Recent Price - $63.90}

^{Entry Price - $52.50}

^{Opinion – Buy}

Shell reported very good Q3 results in early November Q3 2023 Adjusted Earnings of $6.2 billion, reflecting robust operational performance and higher oil prices and refining margins.

CFFO of $12.3 billion for the quarter, with a $0.4 billion working capital inflow, despite higher oil prices.

Enhanced shareholder distributions with $3.5 billion share buybacks announced, expected to be completed by Q4 2023 results announcement.

Total announced distributions for 2023 ~$23 billion, with dividend per share this quarter being 32% higher than in Q3 2022. The stock is up some from our entry price, but the dividend has been increased too. Based on the current ADR stock price and dividend, the yield is 4.1%.

Devon Energy Corp. (DVN:NYSE)

_{Recent Price - $43.90}

_{Entry Price - $53.11}

_{Opinion – Buy}

Devon produces about 50% oil and 50% gas. In 2024, the company plans to sustain oil production at around 315,000 barrels per day, with total volumes approximating 650,000 Boe per day.

Capital requirements are expected to decline approximately 10 percent from 2023 levels to a range of $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion. This program is estimated to be funded at pricing levels below $40 per barrel.

Based on the current price and the Q3 dividend of $0.77, the yield is 7.0%. Their dividend has a variable component, so if prices rise, so will the dividend.

The chart shows a triple bottom around $44, and I expect the stock will bounce up from it.

Comstock Resources Inc. (CRK:NYSE)

^{Recent Price - $8.92}

^{Entry Price – 8.60}

^{Opinion – sold at $14.34}

The stock got hammered in November, and we got stopped out at $11.00. We previously took part profits at $17.68, so I will show a sell price of an average of $14.34. I am suggesting buying the stock back or buying initial positions if you do not own it.

The stock is very cheap, with marketwatch.com reporting a p/e ratio of 2.2 and price-to-cash flow of a measly 2.24. It is down to its May lows, so there is a double bottom on the chart. Here is my 2022 write-up for reference.

Also, RSI is down close to 20, so the stock is very oversold. Call options are fairly cheap, and I would go way out to January 2025, and you can buy the $10 call for about $1.35.

It has some decent open interest of almost 3,000 contracts.

Callon Petroleum (CPE:NYSE)

^{Recent Price - $29.90}

^{Entry Price $41.62}

^{Opinion – Buy, average down to $35}

This stock got hammered in November, too, and I should have had a stop/loss, and we did not get much of a chance for profits either. It is even more undervalued than Comstock, with a current p/e ratio of 1.52 and price-to-cash flow of just 1.53, according to marketwatch.com. November 1, Callon reported a third-quarter 2023 net income of $119.5 million, or $1.75 per share, and adjusted EBITDAX of $342.2 million.

Adjusted income was $123.9 million, or $1.82 per share. The Company generated $266.8 million of net cash provided by operating activities in the third quarter. Total operational capital expenditures for the quarter were $251 million.

Operational Results - Third quarter total production was in line with guidance and averaged 101.7 MBoe/d (57% oil and 79% liquids). Oil production for the period was lower than expectations and averaged 58.0 MBbls/d. Oil volumes during the period were negatively impacted by weather-related power and midstream disruptions in August and September and a lower-than-expected oil mix from recent completions in the Delaware West area. Approximately half of the third quarter 2023 turned-in lines (15 of 33) were in the Delaware West.

These oil and gas stocks are simply way out of favor and way under-owned, with CPE just another example. The chart also shows a triple bottom around $30.

I plan to do a separate update on natural gas and a couple of these stocks. Nat Gas prices look to be bottoming, too, but not a strong reversal pattern as of today. But there was a hammer candle stick yesterday on higher volume.

Important Disclosures:

1. [Ron Struthers]: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: [Devon Energy, Comstock and Callon Petroleum]. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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Struthers Resource Stock Report Disclosures

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