KEY POINTS
Gold
- Breaks out of pennant
- Option expiry volatility
- Ready to move higher now
Gold stocks
- Sentiment still poor
- Option expiry selloff
- Supporting on downtrend
- Gold stocks vs Gold
- Reversal pattern developing
Stocks
- Earnings still rising
- Market sentiment is pessimistic
- Banks underpressure
- COVID drug stocks collapsing
Bonds
- Close to the bottom for bonds – soon?
- Yields still in parabolic exhaustion
Currencies
- Another breakdown of
- Yen
- Euro
- Sterling
- US$ higher
Gold moved higher overnight with a spike to US$1987 as option expiry ran its course.
Manipulation, as usual with gold stocks hit, and given the poor sentiment here, it probably wasn’t too difficult to do.
But gold stocks seem to be finally setting up for a reversal vs gold.
US$ is stronger, and the Yen and Euro look like they are cracking again.
Bond yields have moved higher, but it still looks like peaking.
Equity pessimism is still high and can support a bottoming and reversal higher.
Put-to-call ratio remains high and positive for a short cover here.
Gold has popped out of this pennant and is in another continuation pattern.
Large volume through again.
The current technical position looks very positive.
Consolidation at the previous highs in July and so should move higher easily.
This does look very good.
Gold stocks have been in decline against gold since the July highs and have not been following gold higher in the latest move.
This suggests that a powerful break to the upside is likely.
Compression between the July downtrend and rising support within a larger wedge is indicating some power is about to be released.
Likely to be next week.
Sentiment in gold stocks has yet to pick up significantly despite gold rising.
But the technicals here are very constructive.
A RHS is being formed as the XAU supports the downtrend after initially breaking out.
Just the usual break out and back test before surging.
Next week, it seems will be the timing.
ASX Gold Index is currently performing in a similar manner to its Nth American counterparts.
Forming that RHS.
US Stocks
- Earnings still rising
- Market sentiment is pessimistic
- Banks underpressure
- COVID drug stocks collapsing
The bears are still in the ascendancy and not too far from recent historic highs.
And Put/Call ratio is in the upper levels of pessimism.
Banks and the finance sector have very good earnings, but banks are still having real difficulties with the values of their bond portfolios.
Might the lows for bonds be very close, and this index be close to its bottom?
The vaccine stocks are collapsing.
Bonds
- Close to the bottom for bonds – soon?
- Yields still in parabolic exhaustion
Perhaps a little lower here, but not much.
How far will this parabola run?
Currencies
- US$ heading up in next leg
- Yen about to really crack
- Stock market to rally
- Euro has had its backtest and is now failing again
This looks horrible.
It's interesting that the last line of support is at the Devil’s Number of 666.
The Tokyo stock market should surge here as the currency falls.
The Euro has peaked and is about to head lower.
Will the Euro even still be around by the end of 2025?
Head the markets, not the commentators.
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