The expected return to production this month of GeoPark Ltd.'s (GPRK:NYSE) Indico 6 and 7 wells has been pushed back to July, reported Auctus Advisors analyst Stephane Foucaud in a May 5 research note.
"There is improved confidence that date can be achieved," Foucaud wrote.
To offset the resulting drop in full-year 2023 (FY23) cash flow, the oil and gas company reduced its capex guidance for the year.
158% Possible Return
On this news, Auctus revised its model on GeoPark, updating its production and capex estimates and reducing its 2023 Brent oil price assumptions to US$89 barrel from US$92. This led to a US$1 per share reduction in Auctus' target price on the Bermuda-based energy firm to US$25 from US$26.
Despite the change in target, the potential return for investors remains substantial, at 158%, from its current share price of US$10.24.
Offsetting Effect on Cash Flow
The recommencement of production from Indico 6 and 7 in Colombia's CPO-5 block is being delayed until the definitive surface facilities are finished; they are 60–65% complete. GeoPark expects them to be ready in two months.
Because these two wells produce about 2,400–3,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day (2.4–3.3 Mboe/d) net to GeoPark, the delay will decrease the expected FY23 cash flow, Foucaud noted. As such, GeoPark lowed its FY23 production guidance to 38–40 Mboe/d from 39.5–41.5. H2/23 production guidance remains unchanged, at 39–42 Mboe/d.
Also, GeoPark lowered its FY23 capex guidance by US$20 million ($20M), to US$180–200M to offset the reduced cash flow.
"This mostly (75%) reflects more efficient operations and cost reductions but also (25%) a rescheduling of drilling in Ecuador with only one to two wells expected to be drilled in the country in H2/23," Foucaud explained.
Performance Bodes Well
Some good news for GeoPark, Foucaud reported, is that its first horizontal well in the Tigana heavy oilfield (LL-34) in Colombia is still performing well, producing about 3,000 bbl/d with little drawdown and no water.
"This is important as other horizontal wells are expected to be drilled and they could increase production at LL-34 to the high end of the FY23 guidance and potentially extend plateau production," wrote Foucaud.
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Disclosures for Auctus Advisors, Geopark Ltd., May 5, 2023
GeoPark Limited (“GeoPark” or the “Company”) is a corporate client of Auctus Advisors LLP (“Auctus”). Auctus receives, and has received in the past 12 months, compensation for providing corporate broking and/or investment banking services to the Company, including the publication and dissemination of marketing material from time to time.
MiFID II Disclosures: This document, being paid for by a corporate issuer, is believed by Auctus to be an ‘acceptable minor non-monetary benefit’ as set out in Article 12 (3) of the Commission Delegated Act C(2016) 2031 which is part of UK law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It is produced solely in support of our corporate broking and corporate finance business. Auctus does not offer a secondary execution service in the UK. This note is a marketing communication and NOT independent research. As such, it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and this note is NOT subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Author: The research analyst who prepared this research report was Stephane Foucaud, a partner of Auctus.
Not an offer to buy or sell: Under no circumstances is this note to be construed to be an offer to buy or sell or deal in any security and/or derivative instruments. It is not an initiation or an inducement to engage in investment activity under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
Note prepared in good faith and in reliance on publicly available information: Comments made in this note have been arrived at in good faith and are based, at least in part, on current public information that Auctus considers reliable, but which it does not represent to be accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this document are current as of the date of this document and are subject to change without prior notification. No representation or warranty either actual or implied is made as to the accuracy, precision, completeness or correctness of the statements, opinions and judgements contained in this document.
Auctus’ and related interests: The persons who produced this note may be partners, employees and/or associates of Auctus. Auctus and/or its employees and/or partners and associates may or may not hold shares, warrants, options, other derivative instruments or other financial interests in the Company and reserve the right to acquire, hold or dispose of such positions in the future and without prior notification to the Company or any other person.
Information purposes only: This document is intended to be for background information purposes only and should be treated as such. This note is furnished on the basis and understanding that Auctus is under no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof, whether to the Company or any other person.
Investment Risk: Warning The value of any potential investment made in relation to companies mentioned in this document may rise or fall and sums realised may be less than those originally invested. Any reference to past performance should not be construed as being a guide to future performance. Investment in small companies, and especially upstream oil & gas companies, carries a high degree of risk and investment in the companies or commodities mentioned in this document may be affected by related currency variations. Changes in the pricing of related currencies and or commodities mentioned in this document may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment.
Distribution: This document is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments to whom Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 ("FPO") applies, or high net worth organisations to whom Article 49 of the FPO applies. The investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to such persons and other persons to whom this communication may lawfully be made (“relevant persons”) and will be engaged in only with such persons. This Document must not be acted upon or relied upon by persons who are not relevant persons. Without limiting the foregoing, this note may not be distributed to any persons (or groups of persons), to whom such distribution would contravene the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or would constitute a contravention of the corresponding statute or statutory instrument in any other jurisdiction.
Disclaimer: This note has been forwarded to you solely for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell, buy or subscribe to any securities or any derivative instrument or any other rights pertaining thereto (“financial instruments”). This note is intended for use by professional and business investors only. This note may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of Auctus. The information and opinions expressed in this note have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but, neither Auctus, nor any of its partners, officers, or employees accept liability from any loss arising from the use hereof or makes any representations as to its accuracy and completeness. Any opinions, forecasts or estimates herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this note. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied is made regarding future performance. This information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company and its subsidiaries. Auctus is not agreeing to nor is it required to update the opinions, forecasts or estimates contained herein. The value of any securities or financial instruments mentioned in this note can fall as well as rise. Foreign currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options and other derivative instruments, can give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. This note does not have regard to the specific instrument objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this note. Auctus (or its partners, officers or employees) may, to the extent permitted by law, own or have a position in the securities or financial instruments (including derivative instruments or any other rights pertaining thereto) of the Company or any related or other company referred to herein, and may add to or dispose of any such position or may make a market or act as principle in any transaction in such securities or financial instruments. Partners of Auctus may also be directors of the Company or any other of the companies mentioned in this note. Auctus may, from time to time, provide or solicit investment banking or other financial services to, for or from the Company or any other company referred to herein. Auctus (or its partners, officers or employees) may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information or opinions presented herein, or research or analysis on which they are based prior to the material being published.
