Pharma Stock Has Significant Upside Potential, Analyst Says
Research Report

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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc., November 4, 2024

This material is confidential and intended for use by Institutional Accounts as defined in FINRA Rule 4512(c). It may also be privileged or otherwise protected by work product immunity or other legal rules. If you have received it by mistake, please let us know by e-mail reply to [email protected] and delete it from your system; you may not copy this message or disclose its contents to anyone. The integrity and security of this message cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO, LLC RATING SYSTEM: H.C. Wainwright employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potential return and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on a RELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potential movements in price that a given equity could reach provided certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject to external factors including industry events and market volatility.

H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer. I, Joseph Pantginis, Ph.D., Lander Egaña Gorroño, Ph.D., Joshua Korsen, Ph.D., Matthew Keller, Ph.D. and Sara Nik, Ph.D. , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies. None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of September 30, 2024 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services. The firm or its affiliates received compensation from Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for non-investment banking services in the previous 12 months. The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. The Firm does not make a market in Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. as of the date of this research report.

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H.C. Wainwright & Co. analysts Dr. Joseph Pantginis, Dr. Lander Egaña Gorroño, Dr. Joshua Korsen, Dr. Matthew Keller, and Dr. Sara Nik, in a research report published on November 4, 2024, maintained their Buy rating on Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (LXRX:NASDAQ) with a price target of US$6.00. The report follows Lexicon's presentation of preclinical data for LX9851, its ACSL5 inhibitor for obesity, at ObesityWeek 2024.

The analysts highlighted key findings from the presentations, stating, "LX9851 promotes reduction of fat mass without affecting lean body mass" and "LX9851 improves and sustains GLP-1 RA-mediated weight loss, even after semaglutide discontinuation." They added that "Mechanistic studies suggest that LX9851-mediated ACSL5 inhibition activates the ileal brake."

Regarding the drug's potential, they noted, "LX9851 is a first-in-class, oral small molecule ACSL5 inhibitor designed to enhance and maintain weight loss promoted by incretin mimetics (GLP-1 receptor agonists), and offer improved treatment alternatives for obesity and related metabolic disorders."

The report also addressed recent developments with sotagliflozin, detailing the AdCom voting results and potential scenarios for FDA action. The analysts stated, "Although we anticipate favorable feedback from the agency regarding eGFR ≥60 to <90 range, our bet is that a confirmatory trial may be required to validate sota's efficacy in this subpopulation and obtain approval."

H.C. Wainwright & Co.'s valuation methodology is based on a clinical net present value (NPV) model. The analysts explained, "Our valuation is based on our clinical net present value (NPV) model, which allows us to flex multiple assumptions affecting a drug's profile. We currently value Lexicon solely on sotagliflozin sales in the U.S. for HF (INPEFA), HCM, and LX9211 for DPNP."

They added, "We believe significant upside potential exists, based on: (1) attaining higher market penetration for HF, and HCM; and (2) adding the earlier stage assets."

In conclusion, H.C. Wainwright & Co.'s maintenance of their Buy rating and US$6 price target reflects confidence in Lexicon's pipeline potential, particularly with LX9851 and sotagliflozin. The share price at the time of the report of US$1.22 represents a potential return of approximately 392% to the analysts' target price, highlighting the significant upside potential if the company's development programs prove successful.