Nasty Jobs Report Coming in Scorchingly Higher Than Expected
Contributed Opinion

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The USD index futures are ahead 0.42% to 109.460 this morning with the 10-year yield up 2.18% to 4.783 and the 30-year yield up 1.61% to 4.999%.

Gold (+0.82%), silver (+0.47%), copper (+0.49%), and oil (+4.00%) are all higher.

Stocks futures are down sharply with the DJIA down 318.2 points, the S&P 500 futures down 51.8 points, and the NASDAQ down 246.75.

Risk barometer Bitcoin (-2.21%) is up $1,634 to $93,775.

NFP "Jobs" Report, Stocks, and Gold

The BLS this morning reported at 256,000 versus the widely-expected 155,000 new jobs, sending bond yields screaming higher. The critical "red line" for the long bond is 5% so with a last print at 4.996%, the bond market could soon (if not already) be triggering a sell signal for stocks. Stocks are called sharply lower, with the VIX:US trading up 1.45 to 19.15.

Gold is up $21.99 to $2,712.79, so the markets are doing exactly what I was expecting, with commodities surging against a strong USD and interest rates spiking into a "hot" unemployment number. UVIX:US is called to open at $3.73 up from Monday's low of $3.03.

Given that this is the end of the first real trading week of 2025, I doubt that traders will want to go into the weekend with unhedged or overweighted equity positions. Therefore, any bounce in the S&P 500 should be seen as a selling opportunity for stocks and a buying opportunity for the VIX/UVIX.