Barron's Gold Mining Index to Double over the Next Couple of Years?

Source: Hubert Moolman (3/15/12)

"It was not until almost the end of the bull market in 1979 that the gold stocks really started to take off. Those who think gold stocks will not rise during this bull market will be disappointed."

The behavior of gold stocks during this gold bull market is really not that different from the gold bull market of the '70s. It was not until almost the end of the bull market (in 1979) that the gold stocks really started to take off. Those who think gold stocks will not rise during this bull market will be disappointed, and need to consider the evidence presented here.

Below, is a long-term chart (from sharelynx.com) for the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI):

moolindex1

On the chart, I have highlighted two fractals (or patterns), marked 1 to 6, which appear similar. What makes these two fractals so special is the similarity of the circumstances in which they exist.

Both patterns started where the dow:gold ratio peaked, as well as where the gold bull markets started.

There was a significant peak in the dow (1973 and 2007) between point 1 and 2 of both fractals. Both peaks in the dow came about seven years after the peak in the dow:gold ratio. After point 2, on both fractals, the oil price made a significant peak (1974 and 2008), about eight years after the peak in the dow:gold ratio.

Based on the fractals on the chart, we could still have more than two years before we could get a top in the BGMI, like we had at the end of 1980. That is more than 14 years after the dow:gold ratio top (beginning of 1966 to the end of 1980 versus the end of 1999 to sometime in 2014).

If you compare the two patterns, then it seems we are currently just past point 6, which is similar to the beginning of 1979. The correction since the beginning of 2011 is in the closing stages, and price should advance significantly over the next couple of years. If the patterns continue their similarity, then we should expect the BGMI to reach levels more than double its current peak.

In a previous article, I have illustrated why current levels could be a good time to buy gold stocks (HUI).

For more of this kind of analysis, see my Gold Stocks Fractal Analysis Report, or subscribe to my premium service.

Warm regards, Hubert

Hubert Moolman

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